Defying all regional states, including Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria, that have oppressed the Kurds for nearly 100 years, 72-year-old Kurdish Regional Government [KRG] President Masoud Barzani went ahead with the Sept. 25 independence vote. By an overwhelming majority, over 3 million Kurds voted for an independent state by 93% reported by KRG authorities. Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi did more than threaten to call up Iraq forces to reassert control over Kurdish territory, despite granting autonomy in Iraq’s 2003 constitution, he asked Tehran for military support. State Department Special Envoy 44-year-old Brett McGurk discouraged Barzani from the independence vote, citing the ongoing concerns about Syrian Defense Forces [SDF] battling the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] in Raqqa. McGurk finds himself on the horns of a real dilemma.
Worries about Baghdad cozying up to Iran have been around for a long time, despite sacrifices made by U.S. forces to keep Iraq free. McGurk must gyrate thinking that Baghdad could turn to Tehran to battle the Kurds’ declaration of independence. Achieving an independent Kurdish state in Iranian, Turkish or Syria territory is unthinkable. Barzani knows that if there’s any chance of an independent Kurdish state, its in Northern Iraq, where the government’s 2003 constitution already recognizes Kurdish independence. At stake in Erbil and Mosul, where the Kurds helped the Iraqi government battle ISIS for two years, are Kirkuk oilfields, a lucrative source of Kurdish petroleum exports via pipeline to Turkey. No one despises the Kurds more tham the Turks, wanting no part of Kurdish independence. Turkey considers all Kurds their archenemies.
Hearing that al-Abadi’s talked with Iran seeking military support against the Kurds forces McGurk to take sides. While the State Department hoped Brazani would wait until after Raqqa fell from ISIS, it’s now an indisputable fact that Kurds back statehood by 93%. Iran and Turkey, if they agree on anything, both despise the Kurds, considering them a threat to their sovereignty. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan considers all Kurds, regardless of origin, an enemy of the Turkish State. Backing Kurdish independence would no doubt alienate Ankara and Tehran, though the later really doesn’t matter. Considered a NATO ally on the southern flank of Europe, Turkey holds strategic importance to the U.S., a sort of Maginot Line against more Russian encroachment in Europe. Despite rocky relations, Erdogan leans more toward Moscow these days than Washington.
If Iraq or Iran sends troops to Kurdistan to take over Kirkuk oilfields or airports, the U.S. would have no choice but to defend the Kurds. After spilling their blood as the U.S.-backed fighting force battling ISIS in Iraq and Syria, it’s inconceivable that the U.S. would stab Barzani’s KRG in the back. Iraq’s Civil Aviation Agency has already requested that all countries suspend international flights out of Erbil. Al-Abadi wants to squeeze Barzani to abandon all plans for Kurdish independence. Backed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iraq, Turkey and Iran want Barzani to stand down. Since the end of WW I, when the Ottoman Empire was divided up, the Kurds were offered nothing by the 1922 Sykes-Picot agreement, giving Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Jordan their current borders. Left to fend for themselves in the hinterlands of Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey, the Kurds have been neglected for nearly 100 years.
Barzani’s decision to go ahead with the independence vote despite threats from Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria, shows great political courage. Iraqi Kurds feel, after battling ISIS in Iraq and Syria, nothing could get worse. But, unlike ISIS that has support with radical Sunni Islam, the Kurds have little backing anywhere other the U.S. and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the first world leader Sept. 13 to back a Kurdish state. When you consider the amount of wars fought on the Turkey-Iraq-Syria-Iran border, you’d think that an independent Kurdistan would stabilize the region. Meeting in Ankara with Erdogan today, Russian President Vladimir Putin opposed any attempt by Barzani to declare an independent state. Given the opposition from Russia and Turkey, Barzani needs all the help he can get from the U.S., no longer able to make it on his own.
White House officials must decide quickly whether or not they support an independent Kurdish state. Whether liked or not by Baghdad, the Iraqi military collapsed in 2014 under pressure from ISIS, leaving the Kurds to fend for themselves in Kirkuk, controlling Iraq’s second largest oilfields. While Barzani admitted the Sept. 25 vote was non-binding, he still expects al-Abadi to negotiate in good faith for Kurdish independence. Baghdad loses nothing other than land already ceded to the Kurds in the 2003 Iraqi constitution after the fall of Saddam Hussein. U.S. officials have to lean of al-Abadi to negotiate independence for the Kurds. “The government has to bring back the oilfields of Kirkuk under the control of the oil ministry,” said the Iraq Parliament. With al-Abadi reaching out to Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the U.S. has no choice but to defend the Kurd’s right to self-rule.
