LOS ANGELES.–Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky invasion of Rusia’s Kursk border region could backfire when 71-year-old President Vladimir Putin gets reinforcements into the areas to push back Ukrainian troops. Putin was blindsided by Ukraine’s blitzkrieg in the border zone largely for symbolic reasons to show Russia it could penetrate the porous Russian border much like Russian troops walked into Ukraine unchallenged Feb. 24, 2022, starting the Ukraine War. Zelensky was told he could not use U.S. or NATO weapons to launch attacks inside the Russia territory but now gets a different message from the Pentagon, saying it’s OK to invade Russia long as it’s for the purpose of stopping a Russian attack on Ukraine. So, for all intents-and-purposes Ukraine uses U.S. and NATO weapons to invade Russia in the current foray designed to throw Russia off-guard.
Zelenksy wants to take the battle to the enemy largely to show the U.S. and NATO that its weapons are put to good use to eventually drive Russian troop out of Ukraine. “Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor,” Zelensky said Aug. 10 on X platform. Zelensky hopes to gain more credibility with U.S. and NATO allies after a failed 2023 counteroffensive where he promised to drive Russian troops out of Ukraine. But whether the border incursion accomplishes anything except a publicity stunt is anyone’s guess. Putin will eventually repel the Ukrainian border invasion, putting Zelensky right back into the same spot as before. Zelensky likes to point to the recent Ukrainian mission as the first breach of the Russian border since the end of WW II, something that escalates the conflict.
U.S. and NATO officials worry that Zelensky’s brazen actions could escalate the war to include direct Russian attacks on the U.S. and NATO, something that could morph the conflict into WW III on the European Continent. European Union [EU] and NATO officials are OK with Zelensky’s war with the Kremlin as long as it doesn’t suck the Continent into a wider conflict. “I thank every unit of our defenses that is making this possible,” Zelensky said, not knowing how this latest military venture would end. Ukrainian troops have advance some 20 miles into the Russian Kursk territory, driving thousands of Russians to flee the region. Putin called the Ukrainian invasion as “major provocation,” signaling that it would not continue without a powerful Russian response. Deploying Russian troops to the Kursk region to repel the invasion would take time.
Pentagon officials don’t see the latest invasion as violating Pentagon policy on rules of engagement using U.S. or NATO weapons. Putin finds himself embarrassed by the Ukraine incursion but knows the Russian army will respond in short order, pushing Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory. Zelensky wants more leverage when he’s forced to enter the next round of peace talks with Russian officials at the peace table. Zelensky knows that if 78-year-old President Donald Trump wins the presidency Nov. 5, it will be a whole new ballgame with U.S. involvement. Trump promised he would end the war in short order, leaving Zelensky forced to go it alone without U.S. backing. Zelensky knows he couldn’t continue to battle the Kremlin without U.S. cash-and-weapons. All the media hype about Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t supported in recent approval ratings where Harris has dropped and Trump continues to rise.
Invading Russia has maximum PR value for Zelensky, knowing that he’s made little progress evicting Russian forces from the Donbas region in southeastern Ukraine. Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, showing no signs to giving up any territory. Invading Russia gives Zelensky some cover from U.S. and EU officials seeking to push the conflict to the peace table where he would be forced to compromise with Putin. Putin wants to retain Russia’s military presence in Ukraine, just like it was before the war. Putin offered to end the war in March 2022, shortly after the invasion, if Zelensky accepted Russian troops in Donetsk, Luhansk and the Crimean Peninsula. Zelensky demanded that Russia remove all forces from Ukrainian territory. Invading Russia, at least temporarily, gives Zelensky some breathing room before the next peace summit.
Zelensky hopes to have more leverage when it comes to future peace talks with the Kremlin at the next peace summit. He knows his troop will eventually be pushed back inside the Ukrainian border when Russia deploys reinforcements to the Kursk region. Instead of taking peace seriously, Zelensky has a free reign for the next few months as 59-uear-old Vice President Kamala Harris and 78-year-old President Donald Trump battle for the White House. Zelensky knows that if Trump wins, the clock would have run out on his war with the Kremlin. If Harris wins, she would continue the Biden policy of battling the Kremlin indefinitely. Most voters don’t see the Ukraine War as too important unless the U.S. starts committing troops to the war. As it stands now, Zelensky can keep up the temporary invasion to gaslight the world into thinking he’s making real progress.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
