LOS ANGELES.–Russian President Vladimir Putin, 71, called a “federal emergency” over a Ukrainian invasion some 35 kilometers [20 miles] inside the Kursk border region, prompting a major mobilization of Russian forces. Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky said little about the attacks inside Russian territory, looking to preempt Russian incursions in the Kharkiv region, home to Ukraine’s second largest city. Pentagon officials said they were not informed about any Ukrainian invasion using U.S. weapons deep inside Russia, something that violates the terms-of-use policy with respect to U.S. weapons. Responding to the Ukrainian invasion, Russia struck a shopping mall in Kostiantynivka, killing 14, injuring dozens more, in what Ukraine calls a brazen terrorist attack. No one knows how far Zelensky will push the envelope before he’s pressured at the next peace summit to compromise.
U.S. military strategists think by invading Russian territory in the Kursk region, Zelensky hopes to have more leverage in future peace talks. “The operational situation in the Kursk region remains difficult,” said acting Gov. Alexi Smirnov on Telegram. Today’s Ukrainian invasion is only 500 kilometers [320 miles] from Moscow, not posing a threat to the Kremlin for now. Zelensky wants Putin to know that if Russia can attack Ukraine inside its sovereign territory, Ukraine can play the same game inside Russia. Zelensky Spokesman Myhailo Podolyak said Zelensky wants Putin to “start to realize that the war is slowly creeping inside Russian territory.” Zelensky’s gamble could backfire at anytime with Putin sending back up forces to Kursk to rebel the Ukrainian invasion. Zelensky thinks the publicity stunt wins Ukraine points in the eyes of world opinion.
Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby denied that there’s been any change to U.S. strategy in prosecuting the U.S. proxy war in Ukraine. “There’s been no changes in our policy approaches,” Kirby said, clarifying U.S. policy on Ukraine using U.S. weapons. “They’re using it in an area where we had said before that they could use U.S. weapons for cross-border strikes. The end goal here is to help Ukraine defend itself,” Kirby said, confirming that the U.S. is actively involved in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia. London-based Chatham House think tank defense analyst Matthew Bouleque said Ukraine sends a clear message to Putin. “Such a coordinated ground force movement responds to a clear military objective,” Bouleque said, that the invasion into Russian territory was designed to slap Putin in the face, offering Zelensky
“a great PR coup.”
Bouleque thinks the Ukrainian invasion “is a massive symbol, a massive display of force [showing] that the war is not frozen,” an attempt to answer Zelensky’s critics that all U.S. and NATO’s cash-and-arms have gone for naught. If you look at what Ukraine has accomplished, they’ve done nothing to reverse all the lost sovereign territory in the Donbas region and around the Black Sea. Zelensky has done little to dislodge Russian fortifications in Ukrainian territory, leaving some 20% of Ukrainian territory in Russian hands. With Putin sending urgent reinforcements to Kursk, it’s doubtful that Ukraine would continue the invasion on Russian territory, prompting Ukrainian forces to retreat back to the border. Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said its looks like Russian troops have gone 35 kilometers [20 miles] into Russian territory.
Zelensky looks for any positive PR for his Ukraine War, largely seen as a stalemate by military experts. “The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian in Kursk . . . and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise,” said the ISW. Zelensky needs any kind of positive PR due to his failed 2023 counteroffensive that left the U.S. and NATO discouraged by Kiev’s progress. Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the military “continues to repel the attempted invasion,” hitting Ukrainian troops with airstrikes, artillery and troops on the ground. None of the Russian or Ukrainian claims could be verified, other than saying the surprise Ukrainian assault goes on. Ukraine’s long-range drones continue to hit deep inside Russia some 300 kilometers [180 miles] from the border.
Zelensky thinks he must show progress before the next peace summit where Ukraine will face growing pressure to compromise on the Ukraine War. If 78-year-old President Donald Trump becomes president, Zelensky knows that his blank check for U.S. funds is over. Trump promised to end the Ukraine War in 24 hours, highlighting that, unlike Biden, he would move to de-fund Ukraine and force both sides to compromise. Zelensky’s Russian incursion isn’t going to last much longer with Russian reinforcements on their way, only scoring PR points but not changing the war over the long haul. No one in Europe believes Biden or Zelensky’s claptrap that they’re going to vanquish the Kremlin. Whatever PR value Zelensky got with his Russian invasion is anyone’s guess. Zelensky knows that he’ll be under pressure at the next peace summit to compromise with Putin.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma
