Warning Ethiopia about its new hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile feeding the White Nile to Sudan and Egypt, 66-year-old Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi put the mountainous former kingdom on notice that any attempt to reduce Egypt’s water supply would be met with dire consequences. Ethiopia’s $5 billion Renaissance Dam has no legally binding agreement with Sudan and Egypt to control the volume or cubic meters of water that flows into the White Nile. Al-Sisi called the water “untouchable” without a binding legal agreement about how much water flows from the Blue Nile into Egypt and Sudan, especially in East Africa’s drought conditions. Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam sits at 7,726 feet elevation, running down hill into Sudan at 1,250 feet. and Cairo at 75 feet. “No one can take a single drop of water from Egypt, and whoever wants to try it, let him try,” El-Sisi said.
Given current drought conditions in East Africa, Cairo and Khartoum have grave concerns about Ethiopia controlling the supply of water from its source at the Blue Nile. “No one imagines that it will be far from our capabilities,” serving notice to 71-year-old Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde to get to bargaining table. Zewede rejected El-Sisi’s request to convene a U.N. conference to settle water rights between Ethiopia and its downstream neighbors Sudan and Egypt. El-Sisi spoke in the Canal City of Ismalia regarding the dam dispute with Ethiopia, after a freighter was dislodged from the mud after six days tying up Suez Canal waterway. “I repeat that the waters of Egypt are untouchable, and touching them is a red line,” El-Sisi said. If Ethiopia rations water to Sudan and Egypt, it could have dire consequences to Egyp’s Nile delta, requiring a continuous follow of water from the Blue Nile.
El-Sisi wants to resolves the potential water dispute through peaceful negotiation, hoping to bring Sahle-Work Zewde to the bargaining table. Ethiopia hopes to generate over 6,400 megawatts of power from the Renaissance Dam, assuming the water supply from the Blue Nile continues to fill the dam. Ethiopia began filling the dam in July, prompting concerns in Sudan and Egypt. “Our battle is a battle o negotiations,” El-Sisi said, seeking an internationally-binding agreement with Ethiopia. “We are serious about achieving a win-win [deal] for everyone, no one is going get everything alone,” El-Sisi said, asking Sahle-Work Zwede to meet at the table. El-Sisi would like the U.S., EU or U.K. to mediate the negotiations to assure neutrality, when Ethiopia, at this point, seems to be holding the cards. So far, Sahle-Work Zwede has rejected participation by any third party mediators, making El-Sisi’s work more difficult.
El-Sisi hasn’t found too much satisfaction from the African Union [AU] that’s attempted to resolve the water dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. El-Sisi has no satisfactory agreement about the speed of filling the Renaissance Dam’s reservoir, the formula for annual replenishment of water supplies and how much water Ethiopia will release downstream to Sudan and Egypt, especially in a multi-year drought conditions. Egypt’s lifeblood is the White Nile, the only source of farming for the Nile River delta. Ethiopia’s Renaissance dam is about increasing Ethiopia’s electricity production by 6,400 megawatts, adding to the 4,000 megawatts generated from more conventional gas and coal-fired power plants. Spending $5 billion on the dam’s construction was a great national investment, hoping to get Ethiopia maximum benefit from the dam’s cost-effective hydroelectric power.
El-Sisi and Sudan President Omar al-Bashir want predictability over the water supply coming through the Blue Nile to White Nile. If drought conditions hit East Africa, El-Sisi and al-Bashir want to know that they’re going to get an appropriate allotment of water, not subject to the dam’s hydroelectric requirements. El-Sisi wants Ethiopia to have contingency plans where Ethiopia, in times to drought, would not choke off Sudan and Egypt’s water supply to the Blue and White Nile but have alternative energy mechanisms in place, including coal or gas fired power plants, wind and solar energy where feasible. Instead of trying to work out the details, Sahle-Work Zewde has refused to mediate with the help of the U.N., U.S. or EU. Egypt knows the national pride of building a major public works project like the Aswan Dam but they also know that a national project can’t impinge on Egypt’s sovereignty.
El-Sisi is putting Sahle-Work Zwede on notice that any attempt to ration water to Sudan or Egypt would be considered an act of war. Going to the table to negotiate contingency plans is the best way to avoid conflict. However many megawatts Ethiopia gets for the Renaissance Dam, they can supplement the energy requirements with alternative sources of energy, including gas and coal fired plant or wind and solar energy. Ethiopia knows that the Nile is lifeblood of Egypt and any decision to distribute downstream water supplies must be a mutual decision. If Ethiopia needs Egypt to help fund or build more alternative power plants, then the three countries can reach an agreement. There’s a big difference between Ethiopia’s demands for electricity and Egypt’s need for water in the White Nile that passes through Egypt, eventually emptying in the Mediterranean Sea in Alexandria.
