Acting shocked by recent reports from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] that Iran has cheated on its nuclear enrichment program, Western nations expressed disbelief. Once former President Donald Trump cancelled the U.S. involvement in former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal AKA the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], intel officials said that Iran was out of compliance with the agreement. Trump recognized that Obama’s original deal had no verification mechanism, letting Iran enrich uranium at secret underground military sites. After getting billions in cash from the U.S. in 2015, Iran went on a state-sponsored terrorism binge, attacking oil tankers and Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil refineries. Trump realized that not only was Iran cheating on uranium enrichment, it was engaged in proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel.
When Biden took over Jan. 20, he signaled to Iran that he wanted to rejoin the JCPOA, largely because Trump cancelled the deal May 9, 2018, consistent with doing everything possible to reverse Trump’s legacy. Now Biden faces undeniable cheating by Iran in its uranium enrichment program, making in impossible for the U.S. or the EU to jump back into the JCPOA. Recent satellite photos confirm that Iran has secretly hidden enrichment equipment, including centrifuge components, form IAEA inspectors. “The new revelations that Iran is trying to conceal vital parts of its nuclear program from the outside world shows that Tehran has no intention of complying with its international obligations under the terms of the nuclear deal,” said an unnamed senior Western intelligence official. IAEA inspectors once confirmed that Iran was in compliance, not accounting for secret military enrichment facilities.
Once Trump pulled out the JCPOA, Iran has pretended that it’s not longer obligated to comply with the agreement because the U.S. reneged. But on closer inspection, Iran never complied because they never gave the IAEA access to their secret military enrichment sites. ”It is yet another indication that the regime remains committed to acquiring nuclear weapons,” said the same unnamed official. Iran has had a nuclear program going back to the 60s under the Shah of Iran. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Iran Feb. 11, 2010 a “nuclear state,” 11 years ago. Iran has denied that it has any interest in nuclear weapons, despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying that once Trump pulled out May 9, 2018, Tehran would no longer comply with the JCPOA. Iran blocked IAEA inspectors for continuing to inspect Iran’s many nuclear enrichment sites.
Now that Biden’s alienated Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, he has only his transatlantic partnership with the EU, U.K. and Canada to deal with hot spots around the globe. Putin continued to have clout with Iran since many of Tehran’s nuclear reactors were built by Russian engineers. Calling Putin a “soulless killer” March 16, Biden has made Putin’s cooperation next to impossible. Charging China with Uyghur “genocide” also burns bridges with China, no longer interested in cooperation with the U.S. Emerging hot spots in Afghanistan, Syria and in Bosnia and Herzegovina have also raised questions for Biden. Why alienate Russia and China when they have considerable clout on the global stage? Biden’s abrasive diplomacy with Russia and China has hurt U.S. national security, no longer able to count on both countries for help.
Iran’s JCPOA was a one-sided deal approved by former President Barack Obama be cause he didn’t think he could get a better deal with Iran. Trump pointed out that former Secretary of State John Kerry was badly out-negotiated by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Once it was clear that Iran was out-of-compliance and sponsored proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel, Trump concluded he needed more leverage with Iran, including economic and travel sanctions. Iran insists the U.S. must end all sanctions before it would return to any casual talks about returning to the JCPOA. Biden’s caught between a rock-and-a-hard-place because there’s zero assurance from Iran that they would allow IAEA inspector into secret underground nuclear enrichment facilities. Iran’s parliament passed a measure last year banning IAEA inspectors into Iran’s nuclear sites.
Once Trump cancelled U.S. involvement in the JCPOA, the other P5+1, including the U.K, Russia, China and Germany, worked feverishly to keep the deal intact. Iran decided all bets were off, making continued compliance all but impossible. IAEA now believes that new enrichment activity occurred after Iran signed the JCPOA, making compliance a mockery. Knowing that Iran was probably never in compliance, it’s going to make it difficult to return to what looks like a sham agreement. Biden can’t count on any help from Russia and China to pressure Iran back into compliance with the original JCPOA. When you consider that Biden hammered Putin for his treatment of a known Russian dissident seeking to overthrow his government, it makes no sense for U.S. national security. Whether Navalny rots in prison or not, it’s of little consequence for U.S.-Russian relations.
