LOS ANGELES.–Iran and the U.S., led by special Mideast Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, announced they will hold talks in Oman on Saturday, April 12, mediated by Oman Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi. You know the talks are serious with Trump telling Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that if Iran doesn’t agree to suspend its uranium enrichment program he will start bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Khemenei knows that he must play his cards differently with Trump or face potential upheaval in his mullah rule in Iran. “We have a very big meeting on Saturday, and we’re dealing with them directly,” Trump said. “You know, a lot of people say, ‘Oh, may you’re doing through surrogates you’re not dealing directly, you’re dealing through other countries.’ No—we’re dealing with them directly.”
Trump was concerned that with the U.S. having no diplomatic relations with Iran, using Oman’s Foreign Minister Al-Busaidi, appears like the U.S. is dealing in surrogates. But the Ayatollah is obviously taking the talks seriously if he’s directed his foreign minister to meet with Steve Witkoff. Ayatollah sees the talks as indirect but it’s a technicality because Araghchi will be dealing directly in face-to-face discussions with Witkoff. Trump didn’t want the talks minimized in terms of historic importance simply because Oman’s Foreign Minister Al-Busaidi would mediate the talks. Trump sent a letter to Khamenei last month urging him to accept a new nuclear deal of face the U.S. military. In attacks by Israel Oct. 26, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu focused on taking out Iran’s air defense capabilities, leaving the country vulnerable to a U.S. bombing mission.
Back in 2015, when former Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif negotiated directly, they agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JSPOA], getting Iran to reduce its uranium production in exchange for sanctions relief and return of frozen Iranian assets. When Trump took office in 2018, he realized that there was no verification provision to the agreement, watching Iran use its new found wealth to foment Islamic revolution in the Mideast. Trump cancelled the agreement May 8, 2018, prompting the Ayatollah to say he would never trust the U.S. again. Iran refuses direct talks now but Ayatollah knows with Trump he’s on thin ice. Trump would never make the concession to Iran on any nuke deal made by Obama, throwing a lot of cash at Tehran. Trump wants the Ayatollah to dismantle his nuclear enrichment program.
Moving B-2 Stealth Bombers over to its Indian Ocean air base at Diego Garcia, Trump sends a message to Ayatollah that he’d better pay attention to talks or potentially pay draconic price. When negotiation took place under Obama, the Ayatollah got away with murder, getting everything and more from the U.S. side. Ayatollah would like to have those days back but knows that negotiating with Trump won’t be that easy. Iran has been ramping up its nuclear enrichment program over the last 20 years, now believed to enough weapons grade uranium to build several bombs. Getting the Ayatollah to agree to dismantle this nuke program won’t be easy, most likely leading to U.S. bombing. Like Iraq’s former dictator Saddam Hussein, the Ayatollah lives in a bubble and doesn’t see the reality to dealing with the U.S. under Trump. He knows what he got away with last time around.
Whatever the threats from Washington, the Ayatollah won’t dismantle his nuclear program without a fight. Khamenei claims that Iran has no intent of producing an A-bomb but guards its nuclear program like Fort Knox. So, the nuclear enrichment program can’t be for only scientific or medical research purposes, not when spinning U232 into weapons grade material. Trump saw no benefit in Obama’s JCPOA because there was no inspection mechanism in Iran’s vast military sites. Obama had to accept on faith that the Ayatollah would keep his promise not to develop an A-bomb. Netanyahu said at the time that the Ayatollah could not be trusted. Netanyahu was only comfortable with deal like in Libya in 2003 where Col. Muammar Gaddafi allowed U.N. weapons inspectors to dismantle his nuke program. Short of that, Netanyahu doesn’t trust the Ayatollah.
If you analyze the prospects for Trump bombing Iran’s nuclear sites in the near future, it’s far greater today than in 2015. Trump knows that the Ayatollah cannot be trusted in any agreement, nor does he expect the Ayatollah to agree to dismantle his nuke program. Going after the Ayatollah runs conflict with Moscow where Iran has shared its drone technology to help Russia deal with the drawn-out Ukraine War. Russian President Vladimir Putin woudn’t be happy if Trump bombs Iran’s nuclear sites, not because he believes Iran is close to any A-bomb. Putin has a strategic partnership with Tehran supplying it fighter jets and sophisticated S400 Russian-made air defense systems. Bombing Tehran would run foul with Trump’s attempts to normalize diplomatic relations with Moscow. Putin considers Iran a new member of his BRICS economy bloc.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
