LOS ANGELES.–Striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure again before another cold winter, 72-year-old President Vladimir Putin pushes the pedal to the metal as 78-year-old President Donald Trump comes into office Jan. 20, 2025. Putin keeps the pressure on Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky who once said he would never enter peace talks with Putin. Zelensky insisted in his 10-point peace plan, adopted by the White House, that Putin face war crimes charges at The Hague’s International Criminal Court, pay Ukraine war reparations and remove every Russian soldier from Ukraine. With Trump coming into office, it’s starting to sink in to Zelensky that U.S. policy under 81-year-old President Joe Biden is about to dramatically change, with Trump insisting on moving the conflict to the peace table. Zelensky has changed his tune recently with Trump coming to power.
Zelensky and Biden both made a serious strategic blunder going to war with the Kremlin. Putin sees the U.S. and NATO support of Ukraine as a provocative threat to Russian National Security, but, more importantly, a violation of the 1991 post-Soviet accord signed by Secretary of State James Baker that prohibited NATO from encroaching on the Russian Federation. Arming Ukraine by the U.S. and NATO on the Russian border violated the 1991 agreement, leading Putin to implement his “special military operation,” moving 200,000 troops Feb. 24, 2022 into Ukraine to demilitarize a developing war zone. For some six months before the Russian invasion, Biden refused to meet or discuss with Putin new security arrangements for Ukraine, insisting Ukraine would seek fast-track NATO membership. Biden’s refusal to discuss Ukraine security caused in the invasion.
Zelensky admitted that under Trump the war in Ukraine would end earlier, suggesting he’s change his tune on surrendering Ukrainian territory to the Kremlin. After three years of war Putin controls 20-25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Zelensky and Biden once said he wanted every Russian soldier out of Ukraine before he would consider and peace talks. Now he’s talking like he understands the inevitable outcome of trading land for peace. Zelensky opted for war with the Kremlin, rather than take Putin’s offer seriously after the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion to recognize Russia sovereignty over Crimea and accept the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Zelensky rejected Putin’s offer and in less than three years has destroyed Ukraine infrastructure, killed thousands of civilians and troops, driven millions into exile and bankrupted the Kiev-based economy with all the destruction.
Putin’s recent drone and missile strike aims to show Zelensky to go to the peace table and try to negotiate the best deal possible. Putin controls far more territory today than he did when the war started Feb. 24, 2022. Zelensky never accepted the consequences of the Feb. 22, 2014 CIA-backed Maiden Revolution, where the Kremlin-backed Kiev government of Viktor Yanukovych was toppled. Putin responded quickly March 1, 2014 annexing Crimea and starting a war to support Russian-speaking enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk. Zelensky could have ended the conflict in March 2022 but instead chose to battle the Kremlin at great cost to Ukraine. Now the only face-saving left is letting Trump help broker a ceasefire and peace deal where Ukraine trades land for peace. Ukraine would still preserve its autonomy but would accept Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donbas.
Trump has not said what he expects Zelensky to do in any future ceasefire and peace talks with the Kremlin. Ukraine keeps reporting to the press that it’s inflicting damage on Russia’s military factories deep inside Russia. But Zelensky has been warned not to use U.S. or NATO long-range missiles to attack inside Russian territory. Zelensky wants more long-range weapons and the green light to continue attacking deep inside Russian territory. With Biden heading out Jan. 20, 2025, Zelensky understands that the window for attacking Russia is now, not when Trump takes over. Trump has called on restraint from Putin and Zelensky before he can organize a ceasefire and peace talks, sometime after the inauguration. Zelensky has very little way to save face with Ukrainians knowing that he’s surrendered 20-25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory to Putin.
Zelensky knows that things are about to change quickly on the battlefield, but, more importantly, in the war strategy when Trump takes over. Trump sees the Ukraine War as a threat to European stability, potentially escalating into WW III or nuclear war. Zelensky has showed no concern for what havoc he could wreak on the European Continent, believing the WW III has already hit Kiev. Trump wants to end the conflict to restore peace to Europe but also return the U.S. to normal diplomatic relations with the Kremlin. Biden was the first and only U.S. post-WW II president to go to war with the Kremlin. Biden ended generations of hard-fought diplomacy, détente and arms control all with a short-sighted strategy to defend Ukraine. Biden’s claptrap about preserving European democracy gave Zelensky the excuse for war with the Kremlin. Ukraine has never been a democracy.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
