LOS ANGELES.–CNN pundit and 69-year-old Democrat operative David Axelrod warned Democrats heading into the DNC convention in Chicago to not get too cocky about national or battleground state polls showing that Vice President Kamala Harris drawing even with 78-year-old former President Donald Trump. Axelrod told his Democrat colleagues that if the election were held today, Trump could very well win the election, admitting that Democrat euphoria should be tempered by the reality of making the sale to voters during the next four days. “Look, she [Harris] has made extraordinary progress. We were all in Milwaukee [for the Republican National Convention] a month ago and, you know, there was euphoria there and sense that this race was over, that they were going to win by a landslide, perhaps sweeping big majorities in the House and Senate,” Axelrod said.
When Axelrod says things changed dramatically since 81-year-old President Joe Biden dropped out of the race July 21, he’s referring to polls showing that Trump was decisively beating Biden in key battleground states. That same polling led 62-year-old former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to put down the hammer on Biden, forcing him out of the race. “Things have changed dramatically” since Biden dropped out but Democrats are not out of the woods. Axelrod plays his cards close to the vest, not telling the real story about what happened in 2020 when Trump was defeated by a small margin. “But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win and I think it may well be President Trump, because it’s an Electoral College fight,” Axelrod said, noting differences with 2020.
Axelord has cleverly not shared the very real possibility that no matter what the hoopla at the DNC convention, independent voters could get turned off by what they see at going on. Democrats in recent conventions have let factions within the party take over, especially on civil and gender rights issues. If that happens again, Democrats could lose independent voters looking for the Harris ticket to address other issues, like inflation, the border and foreign wars. If Democrats focus only on women’s reproductive rights, civil rights and gender rights, Harris may not get any bounce out of the convention, actually come back to reality. Axelrod didn’t tell the truth about heading into the 2020 election with Biden leading in national polls by over 5% but, more importantly, in battle ground states by double digits. Clearly, that’s not the case with Kamala in a dead heat or actually running behind Trump.
Judging by how her economic speech in North Carolina went last week, Kamala’s strategists aren’t sure how to sell the Biden-Walz economic plan. Democrats like to tout Biden’s whopping Covid-19 stimulus bills, including the $1 trillion inflation reduction act. Economists like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned about inflation, all turned out to be true over the next three years. Voters polled recently show that Trump leads Harris by 10% on the economy, a major problem for many voters, not happy with the 20% to 30% inflation rate that has robbed U.S. taxpayers of their savings over the last four years. When it comes to national security and defense, Trump also leads Harris by a wide margin, meaning voters aren’t sold on giving Harris another four years to do what she couldn’t do as Biden’s Vice President, a real obstacle for Harris.
Axelrod knows that Biden led Trump at this time in the 2020 race by big margins, something that is not the case with Kamala. Kamala was an unpopular Vice President over the last four years, commanding a 36% approval rating, up till the time that Biden dropped out. Only when Biden dropped out, did Democrats start putting their eggs into the Harris basket. But that doesn’t mean that Harris can be completely rebranded as the next Barack Obama, something Democrats strategists try desperately to do. Whether anyone other than hardcore Democrats buy the sales job is anyone’s guess? If she continues to blame inflation on corporate price gouging and push for price controls, Harris’s support could unravel quickly with independent voters likely to win the 2024 race. Axelrod knows, but won’t say it, that it’s still Trump’s race to lose because Harris hasn’t yet sold independents.
How long the enthusiasm lasts after Biden dropped out is anyone’s guess. If independent voters watch a love fest with civil rights and gender activists at the convention, they could lose their enthusiasm quickly. There’s much at stake for ordinary voters during the election when it comes to the economy and the border. Most voters fear inflation chewing up their paychecks in a Harris-Walz administration, where big government spending continues as the overarching economic plan. As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell weighs a 25 basis point rate cut at his annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, voters also know that it’s more costly to buy things in the stores than it was four years ago. It’s more costly to finance real estate, cars and other big ticket items. Fear over more inflation under Harris-Walz could scare voters into voting for Trump in 2024.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
