LOS ANGELES.–Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky took a page out of 71-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, invading the eastern Kurk border region, creating some much needed PR for Ukraine while it battles a three-year war with Russia dug into about 20% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Zelensky wanted to give Putin a taste of his own medicine sending Ukrainian troops deep into Russian territory, seizing some 100 square miles of Russia territory. Zelensky knows that Putin’s troops are bogged down in battles with Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine. Hoping to pull some of Russia’s force away from Donbas, Zelensky hopes to open the door for his counteroffensive designed to reclaim lost Ukrainian territory. How big of a window Zelensky has for his latest military adventure is anyone’s guess but not too long.
Putin has ordered urgent reinforcements to the Kursk region with orders to expel Ukrainian troops from Russian territory. Zelensky insists that his Russian operation will continue to go on hitting Russia’s infrastructure and military bases along the way. Calling the situation in Belogard “extremely difficult and tense,” governor of Belograd Vyacheslav Gladkov called a state of emergency as neighboring Belogard was hit with drones and mortar fire. Zelensky hinted with more U.S. and NATO weapons he could take the fight all the way to Moscow to topple the Putin government. Zelensky doesn’t really believe that but thinks that if Ukraine can hold on to Russian territory, they can win more concessions on Ukrainian territory in any future peace talks. Zelensky was told that any future peace summit must include Russia to start working on a truce and peace talks.
Since the war began Feb. 24, 2022, Zelensky has refused any concessions with Putin, insisting that Russia, to start any peace talks, must leave all Ukrainian territory including Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula. Putin told Zelensky in March 2020 he was willing to settle the conflict if he agreed to abandon plans to join NATO and ceded Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula to Moscow. Zelensky rejected all of Putin’s peace offers going to war with the Kremlin with the help of U.S. cash-and-weapons. Three years into the war, Zelensky has wrecked Ukraine’s infrastructure, killed thousands of Ukrainians and forced millions more into exile. Zelensky demands that Putin be charged in The Hague’s International Criminal Court [ICC] for war crimes and end his occupation of Ukrainian territory. Putin rejected Zelensky’s terms for any settlement.
Invading Russia gives Zelensky a psychological win, putting Russia on the defense, much like it did June 24, 2023 Putin’s former cook Yevgen Prizgozhin turned his Wagner Group armed militia toward Moscow in an act of mutiny against Putin. Prizgozhin rescinded his mutiny but ended up dying Aug. 23, 2023 in a plane crash most likely caused by Russia’s FSB Security Service. So, when it comes to Zelensky’s latest antics, its PR value won’t last long unless he can push his forces deeper into Russia, threatening Putin directly. Zelensky orders cross border attacks but never seized Russian territory, for however long he can keep it. Prizgozhin found out the hard way what happens when you mutiny against Putin. Zelensly could find out soon the real cost of invading Russia, including a FSB hit at some not-too-distant time. With Ukrainian troops still deep inside Russia, Zelensky can boast a big victory.
Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukr
aine now controls over 400 square miles of Russia territory and 74 villages, advancing from last week’s 100 square miles and 28 villages. Ukraine offers no proof of its war gains in Russia, with some Western military experts skeptical of its current operation. Zelensky knows he has a brief widow to make gains while Putin sends reinforcement to the region. Claiming that hundreds of Russia soldiers have surrendered, Zelensky says the operation goes on with thousands of soldiers armed with Western tanks and armored personnel carriers. Zelensky admitted he has no plans of retaining Russian territory, only taking the battle to the enemy with the intent of having a better bargaining position heading into future ceasefire and peace talks. How long it talks for Putin to get reinforcements to Kursk is anyone’s guess.
Zelensky is kidding himself thinking that Putin will pull significant numbers of troops away from Donbas to battle Ukrainian troops in Kursk or the Belograd region. Zelensky knows that he won’t allow the current forces to face encirclement by Russian forces, giving the order to withdraw back inside the Ukrainian border. Advancing into Russia gives the U.S. and NATO reason to believe he’s making progress in his counteroffensive. But if Zelensky is forced to withdraw, it would look like the invasion was a publicity stunt. Zelensky wanted to send Putin a message that two can play the same game of seizing sovereign territory. Whether he can hang on to Russian territory or not, he has sent a strong message to Putin. If Zelensky’s forces get chased out the Kursk region, it will make Zelensky’s operation look feckless. Only by retaining territory would Zelensky have any future clout.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
