When Republicans meet behind closed doors to pick a replacement for 58-year-old former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy tomorrow, they do so under pressure, knowing the public’s growing impatience with GOP chaos. Republicans and Democrats have blamed Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fly.) for calling for a motion to vacate vote, all because McCarthy worked across the aisle Sept. 30 to avoid a government shutdown. Gaetz did nothing wrong calling a motion to vacate, since McCarthy agreed when he won the vote on 15 ballots to serve as House Speaker last January. Yet Republicans have lashed out at Gaetz for the motion to vacate, knowing that Gaetz was not the only Republican voting to oust McCarthy. McCarthy lost his job because seven other Republicans voted to oust McCarthy together with the entire Democrat caucus, taking orders from 53-year-old House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Meeting in closed session tomorrow, the top priority for finding consensus involves who’s best served, between 58-year-old Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and 57-year-old Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) to negotiate over the next 40 days to get a workable budget with Democrats. No one in Congress or the public wants another government shutdown. So, the first priority for any consensus candidate is how they’re going to negotiate a budget with Democrats. Number two on the priority list is their position on the Ukraine War. Scalise has aligned himself with Biden on continuing to back the proxy war against the Kremlin. Jordan, on the other hand, wants to stop all Ukraine funding, demanding that Biden specify the U.S. mission, something uncertain today. So, if you had to bet on who prevails tomorrow, you’d have to give the edge to Scalise mirroring GOP moderates.
Scalise has the low-key temperament to get along across the aisle where Jordan takes a more combative approach with Democrats. Jordan is a fierce defender of 77-year-old President Donald Trump, making him less appealing for anti-Trump Republicans. Many Republicans believe that at some point Trump will be forced to drop out if he gets even one felony conviction for any of the 91 charges faced. If Trump is forced to drop out, his base will likely line up behind 44-year-old Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Jordan’s close link to Trump worries many Republicans who would like to see Trump disappear. So, when it comes to who has the best chance of winning consensus for the speaker’s job tomorrow, Scalise has the edge. Jordan has a lot of energy and should make a strong case for himself tomorrow. Republicans can’t afford at this point another bruising battle.
With the latest Mideast crisis and Ukraine War raging, Republican are focused to findi a consensus speaker capable or negotiating with Democrats on a 2024 budget. Without some kind on compromise, the government will shut down again Nov. 17. ”I am not going to support anybody until the conference figures out spending,” said Rep. Ken Buck (R-Co.). Buck knows that there’s no time in Congress to debate the merits or the Ukraine War or funding for Israel. Republicans must prioritize the budget or face another shutdown Nov. 17. House Republicans must have 218 votes for the new speaker or waste more time figuring out a consensus pick. Whether Jordan thinks he’s the right man for the job or not, moderate Republicans must buy into the next House Speaker or end up in paralysis. When you look at Jordan’s conservative voting record, he could have problems with White House spending plans.
Jordan is going to have hard time convincing moderates that he’s the right man for the job given the range of opinions in the GOP. With Jordan’s close ties to Trump, he’s going to have trouble getting votes from anti-Trump Republicans looking for less combative approach to governing. Republicans know that Jordan has been involved as House Judiciary Chairman in an ongoing impeachment inquiry into 80-year-old President Joe Biden. Biden and House Democrats won’t like dealing with one of the president’s biggest detractors in Congress. Scalise can easily make his case for a more conciliatory speaker, knowing what’s at stake in any budget negotiations. Democrats won’t budge much on cuts to the president’s current spending plans. How would a fiscal conservative like Jordan expect to sell a budget compromise to his conservative base without creating more dissension?
When the GOP convenes tomorrow, they must find a candidate that can get all 21 votes without dragging the event out exposing too much conflict for the public to see. Gaetz started the process of recalling former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Republicans can’t continue bickering but find a way to consensus. It’s doubtful Jordan can serve as a consensus candidate knowing he’s been involved in Biden’s impeachment inquiry. Anti-Trump Republicans won’t find any security in picking Jordan to lead the House. They fear even more Trump influence in the House if Jordan wins the speaker’s job. Scalise doesn’t have the same fire as Jordan but he’s generally seen as an even-keeled member of Congress, capable of working across the aisle. Whoever the GOP picks tomorrow, it must be done in the name of unifying the Party heading into the 2024 election.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
