Speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok Russia on the Pacific Coast, 70-7year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed little hope of U.S.-Russian relations improving anytime soon. Putin, an astute observer of U.S. politics, said he had little hope that 77-year-old President Donald Trump would return to the White House, saying he expected a long war in Ukraine. Putin left the door open for peace talks but only after Ukraine changed its demands for Russia to leave every inch of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Putin sees the war as between the United States and Russia, not really one with Kiev. Saying only when Ukraine was exhausted of personnel and weapons would it be ready for talks, something he doubted would happen anytime soon because 80-year-old President Joe Biden was committed to re-supplying Kiev for the indefinite future.
As long as the counteroffensive continued, Putin sees the war continuing with only temporary pause largely for both sides to re-supply. Putin sees no scenario at the moment where Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky would consider changing the legal requirement that Russia leave Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. Putin considers Crimea sovereign Russian territory, something given to Ukraine in 1954 by Premier Nikita Khrushchev when Ukraine was a Soviet satellite. Putin annexed Crimea March 1, 2014 after a CIA-backed, pro-Western coup toppled he Kremlin-backed government of Victor Yanukovych Feb. 22, 2014. U.S. and European Union officials don’t acknowledge what happened in 2014 to force Putin to annex the Crimean Peninsula. With Yanukovych out of Kiev, Putin had no choice by to protect his Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, threatened by the new Kiev regime.
Putin doesn’t put much stock in Trump becoming president again, largely because public polls show that in the general election, there’s still enough opposition to prevent him from another term. On the other hand, it the GOP can find a suitable, centrist candidate to compete against Biden, polls show that 31% of the electorate, in the name of independent voters, would turn away from Biden, thinking he’s too old and feeble to complete a second term. Biden may have enough energy but he lacks the judgment necessary to stop the destruction he’s done to the international order. Funding Ukraine’s war against the Kremlin was a colossal blunder by Biden, ending decades of diplomacy, détente and arms control, necessary to the international order. Russia was a reliable partner to the U.S. in a raft of cooperative global ventures, including nuclear nonproliferation.
Biden’s choice to fight a proxy war against Russia using Ukrainian troops doesn’t give Putin much hope that things will change anytime soon. Trump’s four separate indictments give Putin little hope that things will change in the U.S.. Despite polls showing Trump beating his current GOP rivals, it doesn’t mean he’ll get the Republican nomination. There’s enough opposition inside the GOP to pick another candidate between the first primary and the Republican National Convention. Putin sees little chance of Trump’s reelection and a change in U.S. policy to end the Ukraine War. “There will be no fundamental change in the Russian direction in U.S. foreign policy, no matter who is elected president,” Putin said. “The U.S. authorities perceive Russ as an existential threat,” Putin said. Putin isn’t right that Trump would not doe everything possible to end the Ukraine War.
Trump said he would end the conflict before taking office should he win the 2024 presidential election. Whatever the anti-Russian hysteria in Congress, Trump had solid relations with the Kremlin, Beijing and North Korea when he was president. Only since Biden took over have relations deteriorated with Russia, China and North Korea. Putin defended his decision to develop closer ties to China and North Korean, meeting soon with North Korean President Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok. Putin wants North Korea to re-supply some artillery shells depleted because of heavy fighting with Ukrainian forces, depleting weapons on both sides. U.S. officials denounced any attempt of Putin to form a military alliance with North Korea. It’s OK for Ukraine to get U.S. weapons but not OK for Russia to do the same with North Korea.
Putin gat a bit of good news at the G20 summit in New Delhi over last weekend with a joint communiqué leaving out inflammatory language about he Ukraine War. Overall the message from the G20 was that pointing fingers does nothing to fix the problem. Biden got the message from the G20 that they’d like to see the war end at the earliest possible time. Whatever Putin’s pessimism, there’s growing pressure to end the war, not yet apparent in Washington. Putin looked resolved that the conflict would not end anytime soon, saying that Russia would defend its national security however long it takes. Putin said that the U.S. supplying Kiev cluster bombs, depleted uranium weapons and F-16 would not change the outcome, only prolong the conflict. U.S. voters have some say in 2024 what direction they want the war to take. More Biden means perpetual war for the United States.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’d editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
