Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, 53, gave a more honest picture of the Ukraine War, saying that the grinding conflict is close to a stalemate. Unlike the White House that tries to say Ukraine has been winning the war, Haines said the level of destruction in Ukraine has left the economy bankrupt without U.S. financial aid. Haines assessment gives a clearer picture than Kiev or the White House where every inch of ground Ukraine captures is a major victory, selling the NATO allies on the belief that all Ukraine needs in more weapons. Ukraine’s U.S. and NATO weapons haven’t stopped Russia’s relentless air assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian population leaving much of the country in ruins. Yet if you listen to Kiev or the White House all the U.S. and NATO weapons have translated into beating back the Russian occupation, now after nearly one year.
Haines stepped out line giving a more sober analysis much like Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of State Gen. Mark Miley who said recently t hat the war had no military solution. Miley steeped out of line too telling the truth that all the billions spent on funding the Kiev government and military hardware has not won Ukraine back its lost sovereign territory over the first year of war. Ukraine’s 44-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky touts all of Ukraine’s progress fighting the war with Russia but has lost some 25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. When he talks about great victories in Kharviv or Kherson, he’s talking about taking over abandoned Russian territory, telling the world it’s a great victory. In reality, as Haines says, the war is largely a stalemate with Kiev spending its military resources reclaiming lost territory, especially around its strategic Black Sea ports.
When it comes to the Russian Federation, 70-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin has landlocked Kiev by seizing most of Ukraine’s strategic Black Sea ports. Zelensky says with new German, British and U.S. tanks, he hopes to oneday capture back all the lost territory over the last year of war. Putin gave Zelensky a peace offer in March 2022, offering to end the conflict if Kiev recognized the independence of Donetsk, Luhansk and Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Zelensky rejected Putin’s offer, deciding to take unlimited cash-and-arms from the U.S. to fight a proxy war. Haines gave a sobering estimate of the real prospects for so-called “winning” in Ukraine, something Zelensky defines as driving Russian troops out of Ukraine. With both Ukraine and Russia battling each other in the trenches, Haines pointed out that there aren’t likely to be any breakthroughs on either side of the conflict.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland, Haines gave the sobering assessment. “It’s not a stalemate but really, a grinding conflict where quite literally, we’re talking about hundreds of meters being fought over in the context of frontlines,” Haines said at Davos. Even with new U.S., British and German tanks, Zelensky isn’t likely to make dramatic progress in reclaiming lost sovereign territory. Haines points out that Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product has been reduced over 30%, making the Kiev government depend on U.S. largess. Zelensky told a joint session of Congress Dec. 21, 2023 that Ukraine was not a charity case but an investment in protecting democracy in Europe. With NATO’s mission of defending democracy in Europe, where does war-ravaged Ukraine think it can defend Europe against authoritarian influences?
Haines, like Miley, was told by the White House to stop giving honest assessments of the Ukraine War. Zelensky wants more cash-and-arms from the U.S., now asking for U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, thinking it will stop Russia’s air assault. But fighter jets don’t have a good track record stopping Cruise missiles that find a way to penetrate air defense systems. Ukraine is due to receive Patriot Missile batteries and battle tanks in the next few months but, as Haines says, it isn’t like to change the battlefield. “It will be extremely important for Ukraine to receive essential military assistance and economic assistance moving forward in order for them to be able to continue to manage what they have been doing,” Haines said. If more cash-and-arms only enables Ukraine to hold its own, it doesn’t bode well for Zelensky’s plan to defeat the Russian military.
Giving Kiev another $2.5 billion in military, whether tanks or Patriot Missile batteries, will not defeat the Russian Federation. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, advocates giving Ukraine more weapons. “Weapons are the way to peace,
Stoltenberg said meeting with Haines in Davos. “That may sound like a paradox but the only way to have a negotiated agreement is to convince President [Validimir] Putin that he will not win on the battlefield and he has to sit down and negotiate,” Stoltenberg said, totally missing the Russian mission in Ukraine. Putin isn’t trying to take over Ukraine, he’s trying to stop the U.S. and NATO from flooding the country with weapons. As Haines said, the war is now a “grinding” battle of attrition, where there’s little progress on the battlefield for either side. Encouraging Kiev to keep fighting won’t win Ukraine more concessions, only prolong the suffering.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
