All the media hype about 76-year-old President Donald Trump losing his grip on Christian evangelicals is pure fiction, with Dallas-based First Baptist Church Christian pastor Robert Jeffress saying there’s been no change in his groups loyalty to Trump. Trump’s political problems are not in the white, evangelical community but within his own party, where the never-Trump fanatics continue to make a lot of noise. But if you look at Christian evangelicals as a voting bloc, they’re eternally grateful to Trump for appointing three religious conservatives to the Supreme Court, ending Roe v. Wade June 24., 2022. To religious conservatives, ending Roe v. Wade was a 50-year rallying cry for the evangelical community. No single issue bound religious conservative more than ending Roe v. Wader. Trump delivered like no president in U.S. history to the evangelical community.
Yet the controversy goes on whether Trump’s 63-year-old former Vice President Mike Pence can get the evangelical endorsement in 2024. Trump announced for president Nov. 15, 2022, the first in what promises a competitive pack. Polls show that despite all the controversies surrounding Trump, largely manufactured by partisan Democrats, Trump is still the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), 52, leads the charge against Trump in 2024. Ryan argues that Trump cannot win a national election, largely because he can’t get enough crossover Democrats and independents to vote Republican. While 80-year-old President Joe Biden hasn’t yet announced for 2024, he’s expected to do so after the Feb. 7 State-of-the-Union Speech. Whatever the media says about Trump not getting the white evangelical vote in 2024, it doesn’t hold any water.
Whether Trump is electable or not, evangelicals credit Trump with setting the condition for finally ending Roe v. Wade. “I just don’t see a need to make an official endorsement two years out,” said Jeffress. “Just let me cut to the chase,” Jeffress said. “I think President Trump is the presumptive nominee for 2024. I expect he will be the nominee in 2024 and that his decision to hold off on endorsing the president is “just a matter of time.” Reluctance to endorse Trump doesn’t come from evangelicals but from other Republicans that would like to see a different nominee in 2024. But with Pence lurking in the background, it’s really no threat to Trump, since Pence commands very little interest with Republicans, let alone conservatives. When Trump ran in 2016, he dispatched a very competitive field, largely because he was the only candidate with enough charisma to beat former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Giving evangelicals the defeat of Roe v. Wade makes Trump a shoe in to retain the evangelical vote regardless of Pence’s personal ties to the community. All groups, including evangelicals, like to create some drama in their endorsements for the 2024 election. But it’s obvious to everyone but the press that Trump deserves the endorsement because he delivered on Roe v. Wade. When you consider that closeness of the 2020 Midterm election, much was made that Trump couldn’t deliver a victory in the U.S. Senate, with Democrats actually picking up one more seat. But Trump was never given any credit for Republicans winning the House, a far more difficult feat. But there’s some question about how much ending Roe v. Wade hurt Republicans in the 2020 election, Trump and the GOP were probably hurt by losing female voters due to the Supreme Court’s ruling ending Roe v. Wade.
Trump’s hold on the evangelical bloc increase from 77% in 2016 to 84% in 2020, showing their was no loss despite Democrats and the press discrediting Trump for the Covid-19 global pandemic and race wars in America. Evangelicals in the 2024 election cycle play less of a factor because Roe v. Wade has already been defeated by the Supreme court June 24, 2022. Losing some fraction of the women’s vote in 2024 could tilt the election to Biden, should he decide to run. When you look at the U.S. press, they’re, there’s no scrutiny of Biden. All you hear are excuses why his classified docs scandal is different that Trump’s. When it comes to U.S. foreign policy, Biden has the country embroiled in the most dangerous proxy war against the Kremlin in U.S. history. U.S.-Russian relations have never been worse with the Kremlin a hair away from breaking off diplomatic relations.
Trump’s lock on evangelicals, while important, won’t decide on who wins the presidency in 2024. If Trump wins the GOP nomination, there’s enough dissension in the GOP to give Biden a second term. Conservative white voters, especially evangelicals, aren’t going to vote for Biden in 2024. Whether Trump can find an issue that divides Democrat and independents is anyone’s guess. When you look at the Ukraine War, there’s plenty of opportunity for Trump to run as the anti-war candidate. Biden has spent over $50 billion on the Ukraine War with no end in sight. Trump needs to question the Biden policy to create an avalanche of dissent with Democrats and Republicans about following Biden’s war strategy. Evangelicals aren’t going to vote for Biden or any other GOP candidate when Trump delivered on Roe v. Wade. Trump needs the Ukraine War to galvanize opposition to Biden.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
