Armenia’s 47-year-old Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he’s canceling joint military exercises with the Russian Federation scheduled for later in 2023, saying that current tensions in the restive Nagorno-Karabak disputed territory with Azerbaijan continues to be a problem.. Once a Soviet satellite, Armenia has been independent from the Russian Federation Sept . 21, 1991. While maintaining close ties with Moscow, Armenia has drifted away after 70-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to back Baku in the ongoing dispute. Part of the Russian-backed Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO], Pashinyan thought it was best politically for Armenia to develop closer ties with the United States and European Union [EU], especially while Putin figures out how to resolve the Ukraine War. Pashinyan thinks suspending drills with Moscow helps Yerevan.
Painted in the Western press as a slight on Putin, Pashinyan’s decision to postpone joint military exercises with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Krgyzstan and Tajikistan is strategic. Suspending military drills with CSTO gives Armenia an opportunity to explore more military and humanitarian aid with the U.S. and EU. Caught in a bloody proxy war wit the Kremlin, 80-year-old President Joe Biden isn’t inclined to help any country that cooperates with Moscow. “At least this year, these drills won’t take place,” said Pashinyan, calling the drills “inappropriate in the current situation,” referring to the Ukraine War. “Russia’s military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security but it raises security threats to Armenia,” Pashinyan said, referring to the ongoing skirmishes in the Nagorno-Karakbak region. Azerbaiban Muslim radicals have attacked Armenia’s ancient Christian churches.
Unlike Armenian, Azerbaijan is an oil-rich country on the Black Sea, compared with the impoverished, land-locked Armenia. Pashinyan asked Putin for help to stop Azerbaijan radicals from attack ancient Christian churches and towns in the hillside areas of Nagorno-Karabak. Armenia got frustrated with Russia’s new economic relationship with Azerbiajan, a country that competes with Russia delivering crude oil and natural gas through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyan Pipeline [BTC]. Azerbaijan separatists fought a 1994 bloody war with Armenia, disputing much to the mountainous region bordering on the Black Sea. Azerbaijan enjoys close ties to many of the Caucus regions, also fellow Muslim countries and former Soviet satellites. Armenia and Russia have shared deep Eastern Orthodox Christian ties, despite the Caucus region overwhelmingly Muslim. Pashinyan still has close ties to Moscow.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov disputed the idea that Moscow and Yerevan had a kind of falling out over Nagorno-Karabak. Only recently, Putin announced he would intervene to help restore peace to the Nagorno-Karabak region, something only he can do with his clout with Baku. Western officials downplay Putin influence since the Feb. 24, 2022 Ukraine War, where the Western Alliance certainly has problems with Moscow. Putin still enjoys support from China, India, Brazil, South Africa and all the former Soviet satellites in the Caucus states. Saying that Biden has universal support for his proxy war against the Kremlin is preposterous. Certain the NATO alliance has followed along with Biden, despite knowing that the Ukraine War must end at some point. Saying Putin is isolated by the whole world grossly overstates his support in many parts of the Mideast and Indo-China.
Armenia wants to see how much aid it can get from the U.S. while Pashinyan takes short break from Moscow. Moscow’s historic ties to Yerevan won’t go away anytime soon, especially because of the Ukraine War. Pashinyan has every right to develop closer economic ties to the U.S. and EU, knowing that his ties to Moscow makes any new foreign policy with the West more difficult. But when push-comes-to-show in Nagrono-Karabak, Moscow still has more clout with Azerbaijan that the U.S. or EU. As the Ukraine War drags on, more doubts creep up in the EU of how long this can go without risking war on the European Continent. Biden thinks he can use Ukraine to fight a proxy war with the Kremlin, where it’s systematically destroying Ukraine. As some point in the near future, Biden will have more pressure from Brussels and U.S. elected officials to resolve the conflict.
Western press reports grossly exaggerate a rift between Yerevan and Moscow. Putin has been a stabilizing force in Nagorno-Karabak where Islamic radicals have wreaked havoc on ancient Christian sites. Armenia’s 47-year-old Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan looks to Washington and Brussels for more economic support to his landlocked, impoverished country. While the Ukraine War rages, any country that wants U.S. and EU help must cool its ties with Moscow. Pashinyan looks to increase business opportunities with the U.S. and EU, requiring Armenia to distance itself from Moscow. Whatever criticism Putin gets from China and India over Ukraine, they still readily buy cheap Russian crude oil and natural gas. Since the Feb. 24 war began, Putin has developed even stronger oil and natural gas sales with Asia, Africa and South America, keeping Western sanctions from tanking the Russian economy.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
