Taking off for her summer Asian trip, 82-year-old House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) may go out with bang, defying warnings about visiting Taiwan. All the warnings from Beijing about possible consequences have been met with a collective yawn sin Taipei, where few residents think Mainland China will do anything other than make idle threats. Some China experts think 69-year-old Chinese President Xi Jinping will do something before the Chinese Party Congress due to meet in November to decide whether or not Xi gets another fiver-year term. So, if Pelosi lands in Taipei and Xi does nothing, it could be the end of his 10-year-term as Chinese president. Xi wouldn’t have to punish Pelosi’s Congressional delegation but could order military exercises and fighter jets into the Taiwan Strait as a show of force. Pelosi must decide whether her visit is worth it.
Taipei residents have mixed feelings about Beijing’s ongoing threats, seeing over the years idle threats amounting to very little. “We’re lived with it for decades and—for me at least—I’m pretty numb to yet another warning from China,” said Lee Liang, a Taipei-based manager of a major international brand. “They’re [China] so full of it,” said Southern Taiwan resident a mother of two Liu Ya-chen, not expecting hostilities to break out. What it shows is Taipei residents are jaded over the years dealing with Chinese threats, all amounting to nothing. Xi has a much bigger kettle-of-fish with Taiwan, than Hong Kong when Mainland China cracked down on a pro-democracy movement in 2018, leaving many residents disillusioned. Whether Xi responds at all, assuming that Pelosi goes ahead with her visit, isn’t known, prompting many Taipei residents to tune out all the noise.
Pelosi has been encouraged to visit Taipei by Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. If there’s a consensus on anything today, it’s on hostility in Congress toward China and Russia. Must members of Congress back Biden’s proxy war against the Russian Federation in Ukraine. No U.S. House Speaker has visited Taipei since 79-year-old Rep. New Gingrich (R-Ga.) visited in 1997. President Joe Biden, 79, already sent the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan, a Nimitz-class nuclear powered carrier, from Singapore into the South China Sea along with its strike group. Ordinarily, China would complain about U.S. provocation but somehow has remained largely silent over the move. Movement of a carrier strike group would signal that the Navy wants to take an abundance of caution in the region if Pelosi, in fact, visits Taipei. Beijing’s response would be unpredictable.
Pelosi has the blessings to come visit Taiwan from the ruling Democrat Progressive Party [DPP] and Kuomintang [KMT] opposition party, both welcoming her visit. China’s state newspaper, Global Times, said the Peoples Liberation Army could fly fighter jets in a show of force over the Taiwan Strait. Neither party thinks the PRC will do much to acknowledge Pelosi’s visit. China could fly fighter jets over Taiwan, not the Taiwan Strait, sending the stronger message to Taipei. Xi’s power was questioned in a Communist Party meetings in famed Bbeidaihe Resort last May, possibly prompting Xi to grandstand at the next Communist Party enclave in the Fall. Xi will either be nominated again for a third-five-year term or replaced, something looking more unlikely in the near future. Taiwan represents a sore-point for Beijing largely because of the U.S. challenging its supremacy.
China wants to demonstrate its dominion over Taiwan, often flying bombers into the Taiwan Strain, sometimes over Taiwan’s airspace. Former Chairman Mao Zedong had his run-in with Taiwan in 1958, firing 40,000 rounds at Kinmen, a group of islands roughly six miles off the Chinese coast. Even with a second incident in 1958, Kinmen islands still stay in Taiwan’s hands, speaking volumes about a possible altercation. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, it’s doubtful that Xi would sit idly by and do nothing. With his third-five-year-term on the line, Xi will likely show some show of force, maybe sending warship and bombers into the Taiwan Strait. Xi has limited options, largely because a full-scale invasion would take months, if not years, of planning, something not anticipated now. Taiwan’s skeptics about a harsh response from Beijing should get real now that Xi has so much at stake.
China has thrown down the gautlet about Pelosi visiting Taipei in her Asian trip. No visit has more symbolic value for standing up to Beijing, viewed by most world powers as a bullying nation, especially for ignoring the 2015 ruling against Beijing in the International Court of Arbitration, telling China to allow freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Pelosi has already signaled that she will visit Taiwan on her summer Asian trip. Whether it’s worth it or not, Pelosi’s visit has strong symbolic value for showing the U.S. determination to help Taiwan remain free of Beijing. Biden certainly got ahead of himself saying May 23 he would defend Taiwan from a Mainland invasion. Xi isn’t likely to back down completely knowing that he faces another five-years when the Chinese Communist Party Congress meets in the fall. When it comes to Xi and Pelosi, it looks like the die is cast.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
