Beijing warned Taiwan today about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s upcoming trip to Taipei serving notice that the Republic of China [ROC] would pay a serious price. China routinely flies fighter jets into the Taiwan Strait, pressing the Peoples Republic of China [PRC] to take action. While most PRC experts don’t think and invasion of Taiwan is imminent now, Beijing can find more ways to make life on the Island of Formosa unbearable. Gen. Chiang Kai-Shek led a band of Chinese nationalists to the Island of Formosa during the 1949 Maoist Revolution. where some 20 million Chinese lost their lives. Successive generations of U.S. president backed the ROC, supplying defense-and-offensive weapons to defend nationalists against a threatened Communist invasion. With U.S. support, the ROC prospered over the last 73 years, despite occasional friction with Mainland China.
At no time has the friction been greater than now with the PRC. President Joe Biden, 79, spent over two hours on the phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping today, hearing a mouthful from Xi if Pelosi goes ahead with her trip to Taipei. Since former President Jimmy Carter, 97, signed the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act [TRA] Act into law, the new law forced the U.S. to recognized only one China, the one in Beijing. Carter’s TRA also cancelled the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty that obligated the U.S. to defend Taiwan in the event of a Mainland takeover. So, when it comes to U.S. relations with Taiwan, it’s a sore topic with Beijing. Xi is acutely aware of the amount of arms supplied by the U.S. to Taipei for the purpose of defending the island against a possible invasion. Xi told Biden today that any official trip by the U.S. to Taipei is strictly prohibited.
Bipartisan members of Congress have encouraged Pelosi to go ahead with her trip, no matter what the consequences. Pelosi has been a big critic of Mainland China and staunch ally of Taipei over her career in Congress. Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is married to Transportation Secretary Elain Chow who’s an ex-ROC national, whose family still owns a shipping business in Taiwan. So, bipartisan support or Taiwan comes from both sides to the aisle. But circumstances are different today with Biden fighting a bloody proxy war against the Russia Federation. State Department officials estimate that Russia has lost or injured some 75,000 soldiers since the star of the Ukraine War Feb. 24. Mentioning Russian casualties reminds the Kremlin of the high price of the proxy war with the U.S.. U.S. lawmakers find a two-front war with Russia and China unthinkable.
Beijing sees Taiwan like Hong Kong, the once British Crown Colony where life was relatively normal until 2018 when Beijing began cracking down. Pro-democracy protesters were systematically squelched by Hong Kong authorities led by Administrator Carrie Lamb when she authorized Hong Kong police to crack down. When it comes to the Island of Formosa, it’s a far more complicated mission for Beijing to crack down on Taiwan, other than sending menacing flights into the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi has gotten backing for her trip from Democrats and Republican, despite the fact that Biden said July 20 that the Pentagon said the trip “was not a good idea.” What’s not a good idea is the fact that the U.S. cannot afford a new front with China at a time it’s spending billions on a proxy war against Russia. Beijing will make Taipei pay a draconic price if Pelosi goes ahead with her visit.
Taiwan officials have mixed feelings about Pelosi’s visit, knowing she can conduct whatever business needed on Zoom. “It would be extremely difficult for the government of President Tsai Ing-wen to decline Pelosi’s offier to visit, given [her position in U.S. politics] and that she has long been known for her support of Taiwan,” said Wang Kung-yi, director of Taiwan’s International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei think tank. Chiefh Chung, senior researcher at the National Policy Foundation, said Beijing has many options to respond to Pelosi’s visit. Chung didn’t rule out Beijing sending warplanes and warships into near Taiwan’s Southern coast, showing a menacing show of force near the Island.. Chung thinks it’s doubtful the PRC would show any overt aggression toward the U.S., presenting less of a safety concern for Pelosi that the Tsai government.
Creating problems for Taiwan, you’d think that Pelosi would re-route her trip not because of danger to her or her entourage but to Taipei. Watching the Ukraine War, Beijing knows that Biden is consumed with his proxy war against the Russian Federation, leaving a glaring opening if Beijing really wanted to take action in Taiwan. Faced with a Chinese Communist Congress in Beijing to seek another five-year-term, Xi doesn’t want to rock the boat until he gets the green light on another term in office. Julian Kuo, a political commentator in Taipei, said he thinks Pelosi would go ahead with her visit. “But if she comes, the impact on Taiwan will be greater than on the U.S.,” said Kuo, referring to any reprisals from Beijing. Nearing the end of her career, Pelosi looks to burnish her legacy as an intrepid anti-Communist warrior, paying little attention to current geopolitical risks.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
