Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the U.S.-NATO agreed to security talks over Ukraine, designed to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine, something that’s been building for over two-and-a-half years since 43-year-old Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took office May 20, 2019. Zelensky took over from former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko who had a closer relationship with 69-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin demanded last week that the U.S.-NATO offer legal guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, turning Ukraine into an armed camp on the Russian border. Putin put the West on notice that he has “red lines” when it comes to NATO encroachment close to the Russian border. Zelensky has begged NATO for membership hoping that it would help return the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine.
Ukraine lost the Crimean Peninsula to Russia after a CIA-backed, pro-Western coup toppled the duly elected, Kremlin-backed government of Viktor Yanukovych, chasing him out of Kiev Feb. 22, 2014. Led by anti-Russian former heavyweight boxer Vitali Klitschko, the coup was carefully timed while Putin hosted the Sochi Winter Olympics. Once the Games concluded Feb. 23, Putin mobilized the Russian army, annexing Crimea March 1, 2014. U.S., EU and NATO officials never mentioned what happened that prompted Putin to move on Crimea because it doesn’t fit the Western narrative of Putin as the aggressor. But the timing of the March 1, 2014 invasion coincided with the Kiev coup that toppled Yanukovych’s Kremlin-backed government. Putin was concerned about his Sevastopol, Crimea-based naval base, hosting Russia’s warm water fleet in the Black Sea region.
Lavrov struck an optimistic tone that talks with the U.S.-NATO would be fruitful, despite initial press reports of President Joe Biden, 79, and 62-year-old NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stating there can be no compromise when it comes to NATO principles. “It is with the U.S. that we will carry out the main work of negotiations, which will take place immediately after the New Years holidays end,” Lavrov said. Lavrov sounded cautiously hopeful but knows the antagonistic relations between Biden and Putin. Biden called Putin as “soulless killer” March 16, setting a bad tone for future relations. Biden met with Putin in Geneva June 18, hosting a short-lived summit that didn’t deal with too many substantive issues. Biden and his 59-year-old Secretary of State Antony Blinken antagonized Putin telling him to release 45-year-old Russian dissident Alexi Navalny from prison.
Biden and NATO must weigh carefully the national security significance of Ukraine to put into perspective that the former Soviet satellite, while seeking independence from Russia, has no real national security significance to the United States. Putin wants the U.S. to stay out of Ukraine to allow Zelensky, no matter how unlikely, to pursue diplomacy with Moscow. Putin wants the U.S. and NATO to stay out of Ukraine, despite reports that they’ve already moved in U.S. advisers and lethal weapons, including missiles, into Ukraine. When the U.S. weighs its national security interests in Ukraine, it really has none, other than the idea of keeping Russia contained in Eastern Europe. Other than invading Russian-speaking part of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, Putin has not shown any aggression in Poland or the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Lavrov expressed concerns that the meetings don’t wind up a runaround, with talks dragged on indefinitely. Putin was serious about demanding that U.S. and NATO offered legally binding guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO, now or in the future. Biden and Stoltenberg reacted defensively that they would not violate NATO principles of allowing any sovereign state to freely choose its security arrangements. But with Putin drawing a “red line” about countries bordering Russia, Biden and Stoltenberg should pick their battles wisely. Whether admitted to or not, there’s little national security significance of Ukraine to the United States. Zelensky wants NATO membership to let the Transatlantic alliance go to war to reclaim the Crimea Peninsula. Putin has been more than patient with the West and now wants to resolve the Ukraine problem with the U.S. and NATO.
Biden and Blinken have some serious soul searching recognizing they have a chance to negotiate fore peace with Putin. When you consider that the U.S. has zero national security significance in Ukraine, placating Putin with a legally binding agreement to deny Ukraine NATO membership should be obvious. Biden and Stoltenberg have said they don’t want to compromise on NATO principles that any sovereign state can choose to join the Transatlantic Alliance. But with Putin drawing “red lines” over NATO encroachment in Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO lose nothing by giving Putin what he wants. Zelensky wants NATO membership for selfish reasons because he wants the Crimean Peninsula returned to Ukraine, even if it results in starting WW III. Biden needs to tell Zelensky he’s not getting NATO membership and to work out his problems with Putin.
