With the Biden administration making overtures to rejoin the P5+1 Iranian Nuke Deal, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei demanded that the U.S. end all sanctions before Iran considers rejoining the 2015 nuclear pact. When the Obama administration spent two years negotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], it was designed to halt Iran’s feverish pursuit of an A-bomb. Iran of course denies that it ever had military ambitions for its uranium enrichment program, leading former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to declare Iran a nuclear state Feb. 11, 2010. Whether the crafty Ahmadinejad duped former President Barack Obama into making concessions to Iran in 2015 is anyone’s guess. Most nuclear experts, for whatever it’s worth, thought in 2010 that Iran had a “break out time” of about 12 months for its first atomic bomb.
To complete the Nuke Deal July 15, 2015, Obama paid Iran $1.6 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief to complete the JCPOA. Trump came to power Jan. 20, 2017 promising to cancel the deal because of Iran’s ongoing proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu practically stood on his head to block passage of the JCPOA, only to watch Obama sign the agreement. Netanyahu thought that Iran would never allow the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect secret military uranium facilities. With Iran threatening to “wipe Israel off the map,” Netanyahu saw Iran as an existential threat to Israel’s security. None of Netanyahu’s arguments stopped Obama from completing the JCPOA in 2015, believing it was the best way to slow down Iran’s nuclear enrichment program to extend the so-called “break out period.”
After Trump cancelled the JCPOA May 8, 2018, imposing new economic sanctions, Ayatollah Khemenei insists that it will only reengage with the U.S. if it ends its economic sanctions against Iran. Biden’s Secretary of State Tony Blinken signaled that the U.S. was ready to re-engage with Iran, as long as they return to uranium enrichment limits specified in the JCPOA. Iran’s demand that the U.S. act first to end economic sanctions, makes sense from Iran’s perspective. Iran pretended it was not out of compliance with the JCPOA when Trump cancelled the agreement. Problem was it was impossible to tell whether Iran was in compliance because the IAEA did not have access to Iran’s secret military enrichment facilities. In the first Nuke Deal, Iran offered inspections but a time-and-place of its choosing, excluding secret military facilities, off limits to IAEA inspectors.
Iran’s Ayatollah has made clear that there’s no return to talks unless the U.S. cancels economic sanctions, especially over global oil sales. “The U.S. will not be able to rejoin the nuclear pact before it lifts sanctions. Once everybody implements their side of obligations, their will be talks,” said Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who negotiated the first Nuke Deal. Trump believed that former Secretary of State John Kerry got badly out-negotiated by Iran in the first deal. Iran took all the cash and waged proxy war with Saudi Arabia and Israel. “This is not a deadline for the world. This is not an ultimatum . . . Like any democracy, we have to implement the law passed by the parliament . . The move [to end snap inspections] is not abandoning the deal,” Zarif said, making zero sense. Zarif know that Iran is not a democracy when it decided in 2015 to avoid “snap inspections” of its covert nuclear sites.
Since taking office, Biden has been hell-bent on reversing all of Trump domestic and foreign policy decisions. Returning to the JCPOA is just another way of invalidating the Trump’s presidency. But in order to stick it to Trump, the U.S. would give up all its leverage with Iran, requiring full compliance with intrusive IAEA inspection of all Iran’s covert nuclear sites. “The minute they come back to full compliance , we will come back to full compliance,” said Zarif, knowing that the first Nuke Deal skirted any promise of IAEA inspections. Before Biden gives away the store, Iran must prove that it’s ready for IAEA’s “snap inspections,” not phony scheduled inspections where Iran hides its covert enrichment activity for the purpose of duping inspectors. Zarfi thinks it’s no big deal to end “snap inspections,” knowing that without intrusive IAEA inspections the JCPOA is worthless.
Biden and Blinken can no more trust Zarif anymore than the first time around. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has final say on all matters of state, especially foreign policy. Trump recognized the U.S. had been duped with the JCPOA into believing the IAEA has full access to Iran’s covert, highly sensitive military nuclear facilities. Turns out, the U.S. had not access to Iran’s secret military uranium enrichment facilities. IAEA’s Director-General Rafael Grossi said that his agency must have “essential verification activities,” including inspecting Iran’s secret nuclear facilities. After the July 15, 2015 Nuke Deal, IAEA inspectors did not have access to Iran’s sensitive nuclear enrichment facilities. “We will talking to Mr. Grossi about respecting the laws our country . . . but at the same time not creating an impasse for him to continue to care out the obligations to show that Iran’s nuclear programme is peaceful, Zarif said.
