Sweden’s experiment in herd immunity apparently failed with the novel coronavirus AKA SARS CoV-2 or Covid-19 surging through the 10.23 million population, recording 177,355 cases and 6.154 deaths, small by U.S. standards but three times the death rate of Demark, Norway and Finland. Sweden was used as a model for Scandinavian or European countries that never shut down its schools or economy. Europe’s second wave of Covid-19 took its toll with 4,658 new cases Nov. 11, taxing clinics and hospitals. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of Sweden’s Public Health Service admitted that his predictions of “herd immunity” haven’t panned out. Tegnell admitted that Sweden now has higher number of cases and deaths than its Scandinavian neighbors by 250%. Sweden’s death rate exceeds 3.5% per capital versus 1.5% for its Scandinavian and European neighbors.
Sweden had many fans in the United State for its relatively tame response to the coronavirus pandemic, hoping the U.S. could ignore more lockdowns that has not seemed to slow down the virus. Now that more people are hunkering down inside during the fall’s colder weather, cases and deaths have spiked in the U.S. with 11,226,038 cases and 251,255 deaths today, staggering numbers compared more populous countries in Asia and the Indian subcontinent. There’s little doubt that 74-year-old President Donald Trump was blamed by voters, certainly Democrats, crossovers and independents, for the escalating number of cases and deaths in the U.S. Whether 77-year-old President-elect Joe Biden does any better remains to be seen. What’s known for sure is that the second wave of cases has started to swamp hospitals. When it comes to Sweden’s cases and deaths, “herd immunity” has failed.
Proposed by 60-year-old Sir. Patrick Vallance, the U.K.,’s Chief Science Adviser, nearly convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson to expose the U.K. population in an effort to create “herd immunity.” When Johnson contracted Covid-19 March 27, he became deathly ill, transferred to an ICU in London, he decided that he would not take Vallance’s advice about “herd immunity,” ordering British citizens to shelter in place, closing down a wide swath of U.K. businesses. Yet Tegnell decided to ride out the Covid-19 storm, not following the World Health Organization [WHO] and European Union recommendations to shelter in place, socially distance, wear masks and practice scrupulous hygiene. “We see community spread in many regions simultaneously right now,” Tegnell said. Tegnell’s new warning disputes the past attempt to expose large numbers to Swedes to create “herd immunity.”
Trump’s new Covid-19 adviser Scott Atlas flirted with the idea of “herd immunity,” but claims he never tried to sell it to the president or anyone else on the White House Coronavirus Task Force. “In the autumn, there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Tegnell told the Financial Times in May. Watching cases spiral with hospitalizations and deaths has been a rude awakening for Sweden, whose death rate is two-and-a-half times that or Norway, Finland or Denmark. Sweden has seen a 60% increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations last week alone. With death rates the highest in Scandinavia and Europe, Tegnell has had to rethink the advisability of a “herd immunity” approach to its people. Sweden was once seen in conservative U.S. circles as a model of how to manage the conornavirus pandemic.
Sweden saved its economy by avoiding lockdowns, while other EU countries followed strict WHO guidelines. “I don’t think the definition is that important, but we see community spread in many regions simultaneously right now,” Tegnell admitted. Sweden’s public health officials still think that lockdowns would not have made a difference. “We also see that many other countries in Europe that had a big effect during the spring, that had lockdowns and now again have lockdowns also see a big increase now,” said Sara Byfors from Sweden’s Public Health Agency. Sweden’s Public Health Service once thought that EU lockdowns were counterproductive, interfering with a country’s “herd immunity,” where the public developed immunity from exposure to infection. Swedish officials are now rethinking its approach to keeping schools and business open without restrictions.
Sweden’s Public Health Service has now moved to close down bars a 10 PM, introducing some travel restriction around the country. “So it seems to follow this pattern that if you had a lot of cases during the spring you also see a lot of cases now . . . We don’t know why this is,” said Byfors. Unlike before Byfors said the Public Health Service that opted to impose some restrictions on social gatherings and certain businesses like bars and restaurants where people loiter. So for U.S. government officials that think Sweden is a model for what not to do in the Covid-19 age, Sweden now has adopted much stricter public health measures more in line with the EU. If Covid-19 has taught public heath officials anything in the last 10 months it’s that shelter in place, social distancing, masks and good hygiene help slow the virus spread. No one talks about “herd immunity” anymore with a straight face.
