Pulling out of the Jan. 1, 2002 Open Skies Treaty, 73-year-old President Donald Trump cited numerous violations by Russia and China. President Dwight D. Eisenhower tried with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev to sign a treaty in 1955, openly sharing surveillance of skies primarily with the former Soviet Union and the United States, the two main adversaries in the Cold War. Khrushchev declined Eisenhower’s offer to share intelligence or at least inform the other country about intended surveillance flights. Five years later, CIA U-2 Spy plane pilot Francis Gary Powers was shot down May 1, 1960 by a Soviet surface-to-air missile at 70,000 feet. President George H W. Bush reprieved the idea of an Open Skies Treaty, convincing Russia and 34 nations to sign on to a new treaty sharing surveillance activities to prevent another Francis Gary Powers incident.
Trump said Russia repeatedly violates the treaty, flying surveillance flights over Alaska U.S. territories, Europe and former Soviet satellites. “I think we have a very good relationship with Russia. But Russia didn’t adhere to the treaty. So until they adhere we will pull out,” Trump said, reminding U.S. adversaries that the U.S. will not longer accept one-sided treaty obligations. It wasn’t that long ago that China intercepted a Navy EP-3 Aires surveillance plane April 1, 2001 near Hainan Island, taking 10 crew hostage for over 30 days. China eventually returned the EP-3 parts after it was dismantled piece-by-piece by China’s military. Surveillance on land, sea and air is an essential part of all nation’s information gathering capability, especially when they have no active on-ground spying program. Ending the 2002 Open Skies Treaty make the world a more dangerous place for ongoing surveillance.
Trump said he was open to renegotiating the Open Skies Treaty or creating a new accord if Russia is serious about participating. Trumps said there’s a “very good chance we’ll make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together,” serving notice, like the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] AKA Iranian Nuke Deal, that he won’t retain agreements where there is no good faith. Trump cancelled May 8, 2008 U.S. participation in the JCPOA , re-imposing economic sanctions, when it was clear Iran was not abiding by the terms of the agreement. Responding to Trump’s cancelation of the Open Skies Treaty, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Gurshko denied that Russian breached the treaty, saying he’s open to discussing technical issues. Washington allies, like Ukraine, support the Open Skies Treaty, asking Trump to remain engaged.
Trump hasn’t been inclined to stay in treaties when there are clear violations by treaty signatories. “During the course of this review it has become abundantly clear that it is no longer in America’s interests to remain a party to the Open Skies Treaty,” said an unnamed Defense Department official. That same officials said the U.S. was starting a new round of nuclear arms talks, to “begin crafting the next generation of nuclear arms control measures.” Trump cancelled U.S. participation in the June 1, 1988 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, negotiated by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev and signed Dec. 8, 1987 in Vladivostok, Russia. Like other bilateral trade agreements, Trump isn’t inclined to keep things going if signatories violate terms of the agreements. Trump and Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed multiple violations of Open Skies Treaty.
Russia routine flies surveillance flights over Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, Lativia, Serbia and many other former Soviet satellites. “The United States is committed to arms control, We are committed to European security. And we are committed to a future that puts meaningful constraint on nuclear weapons,” said the unnamed DOD official. No one wants a repeat of the Francis Gary Powers incident but the U.S. intelligence community won’t be deterred when it’s the only party maintaining compliance with a treaty. Russia’s brazen overflights of Europe from Kaliningrad have tormented European countries for years, especially in Poland and Baltic states where the former Soviet satellites live in fear of a Russian invasion. Trump’s decision to end the Open Skies Treaty puts Moscow on notice that they must stop their bullying in Europe.
No one wants to eliminate hard-fought treaties but when serious violations take place there must be consequences. Tormenting Europe and former Soviet satellites makes you wonder whether the Kremlin takes any agreement it signs seriously. Agreements for Moscow are a way of handcuffing their adversaries while they routinely violate agreements, giving them a strategic advantage. Calling Trump’s decision on Open Sikes “premature and irresponsible,” Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, had no shortage of criticism. Kimball says nothing about how Moscow exploited Open Skies to torment Europe and former Soviet satellites. Trumps critics see nothing wrong with keeping agreements where the U.S. is the only party in compliance. Canceling Open Skies sends Mosow a strong message that the U.S. won’t continue one-sided treaties.
