Bolting out of New Hampshire, 77-year-old former Vice President Joe Biden had enough, not wanting to stick around when New Hampshire voters “gut-punch” him for the second straight week. Last week’s stinging defeat in Iowa, finishing fourth, Biden sees no reason to stick around in New Hampshire. Once thought invincible, Biden now trails 78-year-old Sen. Bernie Sanders (I.-Vt.) in aggregate national polls 23% to 20.4%. Biden’s collapse in national election polls signals that his campaign’s in real trouble, hoping to get bailed out in Nevada and South Carolina. Biden’s talked about his strength in diverse states, where there’s a higher percentage of African Americans. Hoping his eight years with former President Barack Obama pays off, Biden hopes to see better results in states with more Black voters. “We’re going to head to South Carolina tonight,” hinting he’s given up on New Hampshire.
Despite his name recognition, Biden watched his fortunes fade with several notable missteps on the campaign trial. Whether admitted to or not, his 50-year-old son, Hunter, has dogged Joe at campaign stops. Since Trump’s impeachment trial, the public’s more aware that Hunter made millions in Ukraine working on the Board of Burisma Holdings, a corrupt natural gas company owned by billionaire Ukrainian oligarch Mykola Zlochevsky. Whether legal or not, Joe helped Hunter land the cushy job on Burisma’s board earning some $83,000 a month, without any experience in Ukraine or energy matters. When asked about Hunter’s role in Ukraine, Biden gets testy on the campaign trail, calling the issue a “sham,” a diversionary tactic used by Trump to deflect culpability from himself. But whether Biden likes it or not, more voters have become familiar with Hunter’s role on Burisma’s board.
Democrat officials at the Democratic National Committee [DNC], led by 58-year-old former Obama Labor Secretary Tom Perez, are in a quandary, trying figure out what to do next. Biden was the DNC’s establishment candidate, viewed as the best hope to defeat Trump in the Fall. But with Biden stumbling in Iowa, the air of inevitability has all but vanished, leaving Bernie, 38-year-old Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-Id.), and 71-year old Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) scrambling for Biden’s votes. Lurking in the background is 77-year-old billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg scrambling to pick up ground. Today’s New Hampshire results could further damage Biden’s chances of getting out of Nevada and South Carolina unscathed. “I took a hit in Iowa and I’m probably going to take a hit here,” Biden said in ABC’s debate Feb. 8 in Nashua, New Hampshire.
Biden’s inability to gain any traction in Iowa and New Hampshire dispels his myth of electability, something his campaign banked on to convince Democrat primary voters to rally behind him. Another bad loss in New Hampshire could reverse his shaking lead in Nevada and South Carolina. Losing in Iowa and New Hampshire isn’t about a delegate count but a perception of vulnerability heading into future primary contests. “Bernie Sanders is seen as the most electable candidate,” concluded a CNN-University of New Hampshire poll. Biden’s once air of invincibility has vanished, leaving his campaign in free-fall. “If your candidacy is based on electability, once you don’t win an election, that electability argument dissipates very rapidly,” said New Hampshire pollster Andrew Smith. Smith thinks Nevada and South Carolina will think twice after Biden’s New Hampshire defeat.
While Joe finds himself pressed for cash, Bloomberg’s deep pockets continue to blanket the airwaves with ads all over the country. Bloomberg expects to make a big splash on Super Tuesday, March 3, where 14 states, plus Democrats overseas, cast their ballots. Bloomberg hopes to clean up in one full-swoop. But if Bernie finishes strong in New Hampshire tonight, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Sen. Amy Klobusher (D-Minn.) and Bloomberg could be in for a rude awakening. Bernie could seize the momentum, giving him the best shot of wrapping up the race. DNC officials could still play with super-delegates, votes already given to Party officials to weigh heavily on who becomes the nominee. “I feel a little badly that he’s not going to be here [New Hampshire], but I’m with him. I’m going to stay with him. It’s on to Columbia and will win in South Carolina,” said Biden supporter Sen. D-Allesandro (D-N.Y.).
Biden’s support could erode even further after New Hampshire, no matter what Joe’s appeal of African American voters. Counting on African Americans to win the lion’s share of Democrat primaries is unrealistic when you consider Democrats in the Midwest and Upper part of the South. States like Kentucky, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Nebraska don’t have sizable Black communities, leaving Biden with the same old problem. If Biden loses South Carolina, or doesn’t get the lion’s share of its 54 delegates, it’s not going to bode well for his nomination. Sanders and Warren’s socialist wing of the Democrat Party plans to put up a good fight from here on. Biden’s no longer a lock for any contest going forward, especially if he loses New Hampshire by a big margin. Winning the diversity vote can only carry Biden so far, before he competes for the White vote in remaining states.
