Prime Minister Boris Johnson found out the hard way what happens when you try to bypass Parliament on a matter as important as Brexit. Johnson went to Queen Elizabeth II Aug. 28 for approval to suspend Parliament, setting up Johnson’s attempt to exit the European Union [EU] Oct. 31 without a deal. Johnson’s maneuver with the Queen antagonized Parliament, more from the standpoint that the monarch should stay out of matters of state, especially when it comes to the most momentous national decision in recent British history: Leaving the EU. When voters went to the polls June 23, 2016, they voted to leave the EU [52% to 48%], largely built of an anti-immigrant campaign conducted by Brexiteers led by 55-year-old British broadcaster and member of the European parliament Nigel Farage. For three years, British politicians have debated the advisability of leaving the EU.
Former British Prime Minister Theresa May spent the better part of two years trying, but failing, to get an acceptable Brexit deal with the EU, eventually facing overwhelming rejection in the British parliament. When all was lost, May resigned in disgrace June 7, realizing that she could not deliver Brexit. Johnson took over as Prime Minister July 24, promising, as May did, to deliver on Brexit, even it meant crashing out of the EU with no deal Oct. 31. Johnson thought errantly he had a mandate from the British parliament to deliver a no-deal Brexit, only to watch his hubris backfire when he met with the Queen to extend parliament’s recess to finally deliver a no-deal Brexit. When the parliament came back to work Sept. 2, they handed Johnson a stinging rebuke, voting out a bill that prevents a no-deal Brexit. Johnson’s honeymoon ended abruptly, largely of his own doing.
Meeting with the Queen Aug. 28 was all the MPs needed to close ranks and hand Johnson a humiliating defeat. Johnson called for new elections hoping there’s still enough Euroceptic politicians to push the no-deal Brexit forward, since the EU refused to negotiate on a new Brexit deal beyond what they offered May. Neither Johnson nor the British parliament like the so-called “Backstop,” where the U.K. post-Brexit would be required to stay in the EU Custom’s union to guarantee passport free travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Johnson watched his governing coalition crumble when Tory members of the government crossed party lines to join Labor opposing any no-deal Brexit deal. Whether true or not, members of parliament fear an economic calamity with a no-deal Brexit. Members of the House of Commons called on Johnson to resign for bypassing parliament.
Johnson’s call for a new vote wouldn’t necessarily get the two-thirds of parliament needed to pull it off. Johnson has already watched members of his Tory Party jump ship to empower parliament to take control of the Brexit issues. Sizable numbers in the 650-member of parliament passed legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit, preventing Johnson from implementing his delay plan with the Queen’s backing. “I don’t want an election but if MPs vote tomorrow to stop the negotiations and to compel another pointless delay of Brexit, potentially for years, then that will be the only way to resolve this,” Johnson said, not realizing that he must work for consensus at Westminster, not go it alone. Labour Pary Leader Jeremy Corbyn said he would not support a new vote unless the new bill passed parliament preventing a no-deal Brexit. Corbyn would like to stop the Brexit deal altogether.
Corbyn put it bluntly to Johnson. “He isn’t winning friends in Europe. He’s losing friends at home. He is a government with no mandate, no morals and, as of today, no majority,” recognizing defections or resignations from Johnson’s Tory Party. Tory Party leaders backing Johnson won’t admit that a no-deal Brexit would harm the U.K.’s economy for years to come, without any long-term trade deal. Leaked government documents predict, with a no-deal Brexit, shortages of medicine, fresh food and possible water shortages because of a lack of water treatment chemicals. Whether that happens is anyone’s guess. What’s clear is that there are strong feelings in parliament pro-and-con on Brexit. Johnson’s maneuver with the Queen to limit debate irked enough MPs to take action. Johnson argues that a no-deal Brexit is the best bargaining chip with the EU heading to the Oct. 31 deadline.
Members of parliament could vote to delay Brexit again to 2020, giving the parliament enough time to see if the EU would cut the U.K and better deal. While the Brexit deal has been focused on potential fallout with the U.K., there are also consequences to the EU, including an interruption in trade. Johnson has yet to come up with an “alternative plan” to the Backstop or EU’s Custom’s Union to keep the Northern Ireleand border open. Johnson has tried to go to the EU with maximum leverage before the Oct. 31 deadline. Without a deal, the EU stands to lose $29 billion in the agreed-upon divorce settlement, roughly two years of Britain’s EU dues. No one in Johnson’s inner circle trusts parliament to leave the EU on schedule. With so many mixed feelings in parliament, you’d think the only real solution is to call a new Brexit referendum to see if things have changed in the last three years.
