Pledging his support for Ukraine at the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II in Warsaw, 60-year-old Vice President Mike Pence said the U.S. wants Crimea returned to Ukraine. Meeting with Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Pence minced no words saying the U.S. fully backs the return of Crimea to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea March 1, 2014, one week after he finished hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics. Putin watched a pro-Western coup, he claimed was backed by the CIA, oust duly elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from Kiev Feb.22, 2014, only to watch Russian troops invade Crimea one week later. Putin was irked over the timing of the coup led by former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, currently the major of Kiev. Putin believed that the CIA was behind the bloodless coup that ousted Yanukovych.
Pence’s reassurances to Zelenskiy comes after 73-year-old Donald Trump threatened to cut or at least trim Ukraine’s $250 million in U.S. military assistance, claiming the relationship between the two countries has never been stronger. Yet when Trump was at the G7 last week in Biarritz, France, he urged his colleagues to readmit Russia into the G8, ending the March 24, 2014 ban implemented three weeks after Putin seized Crimea. Trump and Pence need to get on the same page, especially when it comes to Ukraine, since other G7 countries don’t want to readmit Russia unless it returns Crimea to Ukraine. “We will continue to stand with the people of Ukraine on your security, on territorial integrity, including Ukraine’s rightful claim in Crimea,” Pence said. Since annexing Crimea in 2014, Putin has shown zero interest in returning the strategic peninsula to Ukraine.
Since the bloodless coup that toppled Yanukovych, restive parts of Southeastern Ukraine AKA the “Donbass” region have fought a pro-Russian separatist movement, much the same way that Crimea voted to leave Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s former President Petro Poroshenko rejected the Kremlin’s argument about honoring the will of residents in Crimea and the Donbass region. Putin used the hastily assembled poll in Crimea to prove that Russian-speakers wanted no part of the Kiev government. Pro-Russian separatists using the same logic have also rejected the Kiev government, asking to join the Russian Federation. With so much flak from the March 1, 2014 seizure of Crimea, Putin has hesitated to annex the Donbass region, instead letting separatists fight a bloody civil war, killing at least 13,000 since 2014. Putin has held off on annexing Donbass.
U.S. lawmakers aren’t likely to go along with cutting military aid to Ukraine, especially after its Zelenskiy has shown a willingness to improve relations with Russia. Trump hasn’t been allowed to improve relations with Russia, in part due to its invasion of Crimea. No leaders in the G7 want to talk to Moscow about rejoining the G8 unless Putin relents on giving back Crimea. Trump wants better relations with Russia but U.S. and European Union [EU] sanctions prevent a return to business-as-usual. For much of Trump’s presidency he was under a dark cloud, with the Special Counsel investigating any of Trump’s ties to the Kremlin. After a 22-month investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller filed his final report March 24, clearing Trump of any Russian ties. Only last week, the Department of Justice [DOJ] Inspector General Michael Horowitz confirmed wrongdoing by former FBI Director James Comey.
Years of accusations by the FBI and Special Counsel made it impossible to clear the air with Russia, only now leaving an opening. Yet before Trump can take a step forward, Putin would have to offer a plan to return at least some part of Crimea to Ukraine. Home to Russian warm-water fleet, Putin’s in no mood to give back his Seavasapol navy base in Crimea. Yet if Putin were willing to discuss Ukraine to resolve the 2014 annexation, it would go a long way in helping to restore normal relations with the West. Pence finds it difficult for the U.S. to back any military struggle to restore the pro-Russian Donbass region or any military attempt to retake Crimea. Both would be disastrous for the region and could result in a wider regional war with Russia. Whatever sympathies Pence has with Zelenskiy, the U.S. can’t fight Ukraine’s battles in Crimea. Donbass or elsewhere.
Commemorating the start of WW II, Pence and Zelenskiy know the human catastrophe caused by war. They also know the 13,000 dead Ukrainians fighting in the Donbass region to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty, after Russian March 1, 2014 annexation of Crimea. If Georgia is any example, where Russia seized South Ossetia and Abkazia Aug. 12, 2008, Putin isn’t likely to respond to sanctions or intimidation. If there’s any chance of negotiating a return of some part of Crimea, Zelenskiy must play his cards right with Putin, offering to sit at the table and find a solution. Beefing up Ukraine’s military won’t improve the country’s security with Russia, if there’s only talk of taking Crimea and Donbass back by force. Putn would be willing to discuss Crimea and Donbass, if Ukraine would discuss the legal authority in Kiev. Putin still believes Yanukovych has legal claim to Ukraine’s presidency.
