Faced with a looming Oct. 31 deadline for Brexit, 55-year-old British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a very different approach than his predecessor former Prime Minister Theresa May. May let the Brussels-based European Union call the shots, imposing a customs union on the border in Northern Ireland. When May could not get the British parliament to buy in, she wound up resigning May 24, all because Westminster Abby would not approve the EU Brexit plan. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and EU Council President Donald Tusk gave May an ultimatum, accept the so-called backstop or custom’s union or leave the EU without a deal. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney confirmed that Johnson is nowhere close to a Brexit agreement that would work in parliament, but, more importantly, satisfy the parliament’s demand for a fair deal.
Owed $29 billion, Johnson’s already saying he won’t cough up the cash unless he has a Brexit deal to his liking. With Tusk admonishing Johnson, he’s looking at losing $29 billion unless Tusk is willing to negotiate in good faith. Tusk and Juncker wanted the U.K. to sign on to the Backstop, where an arrangement with the EU’s Custom’s union would prevent the North Ireland border from hardening requiring passports. Johnson doesn’t want Britain trapped permanently in the EU’s custom’s union, costing the U.K. untold sums of cash. When Brexit happens Oct. 31, the U.K. wants a seamless transition with Northern Ireland, something not offered by Tusk and Juncker when they negotiated with May. Johnson has the EU’s attention, saying there will be no $29 billion payment to the EU without a deal more favorable to 10 Downing Street, something that hasn’t happened yet.
Johnson put Brussels on notice that the Backstop must be removed if there’s any Brexit deal Oct. 31. Without the Backstop, Johnson wants the EU to guarantee that the open border with Northern Ireland and the Republic would be preserved just as it is today. Tusk and Juncker refused to negotiate with May, demanding that the Backstop and involvement with the EU’ Custom’s union part of the deal. “I think we need to be honest here, that the alternative arrangement that have been discussed to date do not do the same jobs as the backstop, not even close,” Coveney told a Prague press conference with Cxech Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek. What Conveney and other members of the EU don’t get is that Johnson is fully prepared Oct. 31 to crash out of Brexit with no deal, unless the EU negotiates. Since making their final offer to May Nov. 18, 2018, the EU has refused to compromise with the U.K.
When you consider that $29 billion divorce deal is at stake, you’d think the EU would reconsider its final offer to May. With Johnson at 10 Downing Street, whatever happened with May is no longer relevant. Getting a satisfactory deal on the Northern Ireland border is of utmost importance to Dublin and Belfast. “So let’s not pretend that solution exists when they might not,” Coveney said. There’s noting humiliating for Brussels to sign a deal favorable to the U.K., meeting the needs of parliament to secure the Schengen arrangement at the North Ireland border. Johnson doesn’t want entanglements with the EU’s Custom’s union, wanting instead no strings attached when it comes to the final border agreement. Coveney knows that the Republic has more of a say in the final border arrangement, not Brussels. It’s Northern Ireland that stands to get hurt with a no-deal Brexi.
Ireland, as a EU country, has much to loose if their best trading partner Northern Ireland cannot move freely across the border, something that Ireland’s businesses are used to over the last 20 years. When the EU realizes that Johnson means business, they’ll have to compromise on the Northern Ireland border, if, for no other reason, it’s not fair to the Irish Republic. “Our message is simple: We want to work this out,” Coveney said, addressing his remarks to Brussels, who’s so far hasn’t cut the U.K. the right Brexit deal. Compromising on the Northern Ireland border with the U.K. in no way disadvantages Brussels. If Brussels wants it’s $29 billion divorce settlement from the U.K., it needs to make concessions with Johnson on the Northern Ireland border. Brussels can’t ignore the fact that the one EU country that stands to lose is the Irish Republic, looking to keep the Schengen border arrangement.
Since May started negotiating with Brussels after the Brexit vote June 23, 2016, the EU has done everything possible to keep the U.K. in the EU. When it became obvious that both houses of the British parliament backed Brexit, the EU painted itself into a corner refusing to negotiate beyond the 2018 deal. Johnson has been very specific asking Brussels to come up with an alternative arrangement to the Backstop, forever obligating the U.K. to stay in the EU’s Custom’s Union. “There needs to be a deal done on the basis of honesty, in term of the complexity of the issue we are facing,” said Coveney, asking Brussels to make alternative arrangement to the Backstop. EU officials have a good two months to make the alternative arrangement that works with the U.K. or face getting nothing when the divorce becomes final Oct. 31. EU officials have nothing to lose working with Johnson.
