Responding to 72-year-old President Donald Trump’s threat to slap a 5% a month tariff on Mexico due to the government’s inability to stem immigrant-flows from Central America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Mexico was doing everything possible to respond U.S. concerns. With trade totally $357 billion from Mexico, both countries could be hurt economically by a tit-for-tat tariff exchange. Trump already finds himself in quicksand when it comes to applying $200 billion in tariffs to China, with Communist China striking back at U.S. farmers. While Trump wants Mexico to do more to stem the flow in Central American refugees to the U.S. border, there’s little Mexico can do to stop the problem. Lopez Obrado told Trump last week that his hands are tied dealing with immigrant-flows because of humanitarian concerns with refugees.
Trump wants Mexico to designate themselves a legitimate vessel for immigrants from Central America. “Almost everyone was caught flat-footed,” said Antonio Ortiz-Mena, a Washington, D.C.-based international trade consultant with Albright Sonebridge. “We’re neighbors. We’re not going anywhere,” said Ortiz-Mena, urging Mexican authorities to stay calm in the crisis. Lopez Obrador said Mexico does not want confrontation with the U.S. Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. Martha Barcena said there are limits to what the Mexican authorities can do. “There is a clear limit what we can negotiate, and the limit is Mexican dignity,” Barcena said. Without Mexico’s efforts, an additional quarter million immigrants could arrive at the U.S. border in 2019, confirming the border crisis. For months, the Democrat Party has denied that a humanitarian crisis exists on the border.
Mexico’s Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said a “safe third country” agreement, permitting immigrants to seek refuge in Mexico would be unacceptable. Ebrard and Barcena are due to meet in Washington with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Mexican Agricultural Secretary Victory Manuel Villalobos was also due to meet with Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue to discus implications of tariffs. Trump’s growing demands for Mexico to deliver results on the border are looked at skeptically by immigration officials. “It’s asking the impossible,” said Maureen Meyer, Director of Mexico and immigrants rights on Latin America. “It certainly overlooks how much Mexico is trying to cooperate with the U.S. Meyer expects the U.S. to pressure Mexico into signing “Safe Third Country” status, where it’s willing to accept responsibility for the hoards of Central American refugees.
Meyer believes Mexico lacks the military and humanitarian resources needed to manage the current refugee border crisis. She also thinks militarizing the Mexican border with Hunduras is also a non-starter. Whether arriving by boats or by land, the flows of Central American immigrants don’t seem to be slowing down. Trump said he was “dead serious” about slapping Mexico with tariffs if they can show extraordinary efforts to stem the flow of Central American refuges. Before Trump pulls-the-plug on Central American refuges, there’s little that can be done about the border, other than dealing with the current humanitarian crisis. Mexican authorities demanding IDs does little to discourage immigrants from crossing the jungle between the Mexico-Guatemalan or border in public parks in Tapachula. There’s no easy fix for Mexico’s border crisis with Guatemala, prompting White House frustration.
Imposing a 5% tax with five monthly installments to 25% does nothing to stem the flow of Central American immigrants into Mexico. Lopez Obrador has tried to tell Trump that he must respect the humanitarian rights of all refugees, not take steps that would compromise immigrants’ rights. Given the fragile state of the U.S. stock market, you’d think Trump would think twice before using tariffs as a tool to deal with an out-of-control immigration crisis that has gone on for decades. While highlighted today, Latin American inflows have always been a problem of the Southern border. If tariffs cause more economic distress in the U.S., it’s going to continue Wall Streets correction, selling off more stocks. If there’s little Obrador can do to stem the flow of Central American immigrants, adding tariffs only adds insult-to-injury in an ongoing economic crisis now threatening recession.
Given Mexico’s limitation of what can be done to stop Central American refugee inflows, Trump would be well-advised to halt any proposed tariffs. While White House Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney says Trump is “deadly serious” about slapping Mexico with tariffs, Trump should rethink the proposed strategy. “There’s no specific target, there’s no specific percentage,” Mulvaney said about how much Mexico must do to stem the flows of Latin American immigrants. Lopez Obrador has pleaded with the White House to stop the madness of tariffs, especially when used to deal with the U.S. border crisis. “Let nothing and nobody separate our beautiful and sacred friendship,” said Lopez Obrador, pleading with Trump to stop the expected tariffs. Whether Lopez Obrador can pull back the U.S. from the brink, he’s set a respectful tone dealing with the question of tariffs to manage the refugee crisis.
