No longer worried about her own survival, 62-year-old British Prime Minister Theresa May faces another Parliament vote March 12 on whether to approve her best Brexit deal with the European Union. May has won precious little from Brussels trying but failing to win concessions of the Northern Ireland border with the EU’s Irish Republic. May wanted a backstop or insurance policy that the border would remain a passport free zone allowing the same commerce that existed before British subjects voted June 23, 2016 to end its membership in the EU. With Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] terror attacks sweeping Europe, British citizens had had enough of the EU’s pro-immigration policies. Voting to end membership in the EU, British voters told the EU that it had enough of the EU’s refugee mandates, leaving voters no choice but to end ties with the EU.
Spearheading the Brexit vote, former leader of U.K.’s Independence Party Gerard Batten lobbied the public hard about the dangers of letting the EU dictate immigration quotas in the U.K. While euroseptic opposition was strong in 2016 leading to a 52% to 48% final tally on leaving the EU, the public has reversed itself, now showing an equal percentage now favors staying in the EU. Whether staying or leaving the EU comes with a big price tag, the British parliament must decide to accept May’s Brexit deal tomorrow or ask for a month-long delay to decide leave the world’s second largest trading bloc with a signed deal or not. No-deal Brexiteers believe no deal is preferable over a bad deal, something that would tie up British politics for years. No deal backers want May to negotiate an independent trade deal with EU at a time-and-place that suits both parties in the future.
British parliament has been reluctant to accept a deal that doesn’t guarantee London as the EU’s banking capital, fearing, without a deal, more financial institutions would move to Frankfurt. Eighteen days away from the Brexit deadline, it looks more likely that May will ask for an extension of Article 50, allowing Downing Street to find a better way forward. Without a deal, Members of Parliament fear economic chaos, potentially sending world markets into a major sell-off. “We have an opportunity now to leave on March 29 or shortly thereafter and it’s important we grasp that opportunity because there is wind in the sales of people trying to stop Brexit,” said British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt. May and Hunt want the Brexit deal because they fear another defeat in Parliament could reverse the outcome. May and Hunt haven’t accepted that British voters have changed their minds.
May has refused so far to hold a second referendum to give voters another voice in the outcome of the vote. If the first referendum June 23, 2016 decided to leave the EU, a second vote could very well decide to stay in. May’s allies Nigel Dodds in North Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party and Steve Baker of the Parliament’s euroseptic faction said “the political situation is grim,” meaning May stands to lose tomorrow’s vote in Parliament. “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizable proportion of Conservative and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” Dodds and Baker wrote the Sunday Telegraph. Labour Pary spokesman Kier Starmer said his party firmly supports staying in the EU, seeking a second referendum. With the vote scheduled tomorrow, May hasn’t got a firm commitment of the “backstop,” preventing the return to the hard border in Northern Ireland.
If the vote fails in Parliament tomorrow, May promises to let the Commons vote on whether to leave the EU without an exit deal. MPs fear that a no deal Brexit would lead to economic chaos, potentially driving the global banking community out of London to Frankfurt. With so much at stake, you’d think May would have her ducks in order before she schedules a vote. Looking more like May will ask for a delay under Article 50 to leave the EU, it still doesn’t satisfy Parliament’s demands that the EU provide a backstop on the Northern Ireland border. France’s EU affairs minister Nathalie Loiseau told French Inter Radio that she saw no value in extending the Article 50 deadline, because European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Donald Tusk told May that Brexit negotiations with the EU were over, giving little chance of a different deal.
May surely knows that all her failed negotiations with the EU have damaged the U.K.’s reputation with the international banking community. Instead of recognizing the mistake of leaving the EU, May’s Tory Party has dug in, stubbornly trying to push her Brexit deal through the House of Commons. Tomorrow’s vote looks to repeat the Jan. 15 vote that May lost by 230 votes. Unless May pulls a rabbit out of her hat, tomorrow’s vote should mirror Jan. 15, wreaking more havoc on British politics. “Business is holding its breath ahead of the vote in parliament this week, knowing that if
Brexit has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected,” said James Stewart, head of Brexit at U.K’s London office of accounting firm KPMG. Steward worries that financial firms will look to get out of London, looking to move headquarters to Frankfurt without Brexit deal.
