Venezuelan President 56-year-old Nicolas Maduro rejected U.S. attempts to get him to resign, after 35-year-old National Council President Juan Guaido declared himself interim president Jan. 23. While the U.S. and European Union jumped on the bandwagon, Maduro dug in, claiming Guaido was a traitor. Whether Guaido likes it or not, Maduro was elected in May 2018 in what Guaido insists was a fraudulent election. Guaido’s attempts so far have failed to rid Caracas of Maduro’s leadership, since Maduro controls the Venezuelan military. U.S. President Donald Trump backs Guaido but lacks influence necessary to remove Maduro from power. All the sanctions in the world won’t rid Caracas of Maduro short of military intervention. Guaido promised he would open up a humanitarian corridor on the Brazilian and Columbian borders, something that hasn’t worked so far. Maduro has blocked all bridges to prevent U.S. and EU aid shipments into Venezuela.
Guaido warned Maduro that if he didn’t let U.S. humanitarian aid shipments into Venezeula he would ask Trump to intervene militarily. Trump delivered a powerful speech supporting Guaido in Miami Feb. 18, warning Maduro not to detain or otherwise harass Guaido or face the consequences. Maduro has kept his hands off Guaido so far but suggested the self-declared interim president is subject to arrest. Speaking all the right propaganda, Maduro claims the Venezuelan military has beat back a U.S.-sponsored coup, despite the fact that no U.S. military, paramilitary or CIA intervened in Caracas. “They invited the armed forces to carry out a military coup and their reply was clear—they have defeated the coup plotters,” Maduro told a crowd in Caracas. Calling Guaido a “clown and a puppet,” Maduro defiantly proclaimed victory over the coup attempt. Guaido responded, telling his supporters he would travel around the country to win support.
Without the military behind Guaido, he would need Trump to deploy the U.S. military to Caracas, something that grows less likely by the day, regardless of what happens to Guaido. “We are going to come, all of Venezuela to Caracas, because we need all of them united,” Guaido told his followers, noting less bravado over what would happen. Guaido hasn’t faced the reality that without military backing for his attempt at regime change, it’s less likely Trump would commit U.S. troops to Venezuela. It isn’t really about Russia or China backing Maduro that discourages Trump from intervening but rather the fact that no popular uprising by Guaido has staged anything more than feckless demonstration. Whatever the risks to Venezuelan citizens, Trump sees no evidence that Venezula has the internal will to topple the Maduro government. Maduro likes blame the U.S for everything wrong with Venezuela’s failed economy.
Maduro shows he learned well from his communist dictator predecessor Hugo Chavez, blaming all of Venezuela’s problems on the U.S. Now that he’s resisting a home grown coup, he continues to blame the U.S. for its failed economy, causing today’s hyperinflation that has left the currency worthless, despite holding the largest oil reserves on the planet. When the electricity went out across the country March 9, Maduro immediately called it a U.S. plot, feeding the public’s paranoia over any U.S. intervention. Maduro boasted that he had restored 70% of the country’s power, despite cyber-sabotage by the U.S. of Venezuela’s electrical grid. In reality, Venezuela has a dilapidated power grid, built of old fashioned hydroelectric power. Blaming the U.S for everything wrong with Venezuela gives Maduro a perfect excuse, leaving the public duped by the socialist dictator. Guaido has no power trying to persuade enough citzens to rebel.
Guaido’s request for U.S. military intervention falls on deaf ears, as Trump faces the current political maelstrom and re-election in 2020. Starting a war in Venezuela with an uncertain outcome would undermine Trump’s U.S.-first foreign policy, that spends less money and intervenes only as a last resort. With Guaido unable to summons enough popular support to topple the Maduro government, Trump thinks it’s not the U.S. job to do the heavy lifting. While Vice President Mike Pendes and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Guaido in Bogata Feb 24, there was no commitment to use U.S. troops. Trump sees only wasting more U.S. blood-and-treasure trying to rid Caracas of Maduro, no matter how repressive the dictator. Before the U.S. can do anything, Guaido must prove he has the popular movement to topple Maduro without U.S. intervention. There’s no stomach at the White House to do Venezuela’s dirty work.
