Pitting Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) vs. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) in the national spotlight, the race promises to tell the story about the rest of the country, especially watching a liberals, like O’Rourke, give Tea Party Republican Ted Cruz a run for his money. Democrats in Texas have had an unprecedented voter registration drive, putting pressure on Cruz to get out the vote. Still known for slamming President Donald Trump like no other rival in the 2016 campaign, Cruz has relied on Trump to help push him over the finish line. While polls have narrowed before Nov. 6 giving Cruz a slight edge within the statistical-margin-of-error, prevailing wisdom has more conservative Texas voters delivering for Cruz. But whatever happens, O’Rourke’s strong showing hints at changing demographics in Texas, where Democrats have made inroads in traditionally GOP districts.
Spending three terms in Congress helped O’Rourke compete on the same stage as Cruz, a first-term Republican senator. Unlike Cruz, O’Rourke appeals to independent voters who tend to lean conservative but whose more liberal attitudes on health care, abortion and national security leave O’Rourke a viable option. O’Rourke bucks a conservative trend that has the GOP occupying the Senate seat since 1994. O’Rourke rewrote the playbook, avoiding high-priced consultants and letting social media and Internet connections promote his campaign. Cruz, on the other hand, ran a traditional campaign with media consultants handling political advertising, appealing the state’s conservative base. O’Rourke used his El Paso base to his advantage, running as much against Trump as Cruz. Driving all over Texas in a rented bus, O’Rourke visited every county in Tezas.
O’Rourke ignored naysayers telling voters that he wanted to appeal to all Texans, not just young liberals “How can you win in those areas if you don’t try?” asked O’Rourke, defying conventional wisdom how to run in Texas. Drawing big crowds in Amarillo, Longview and Witchita Falls, O’Rourke went to areas seldomly visited by Democrats. Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat governor since former President George W. Bush beat Ann Richards for governor Nov. 6, 1994. Beto rejects polls that say Cruz has an insurmountable lead, preferring to peel off votes wherever possible. Registering 1.7 million new voters in 2018, O’Rourke’s confident that if they turn up at the polls, he’ll win the election. Early voting cast about 4.9 million votes in early and absentee voting. GOP consultant Derek Ryan estimated that 8.2 million Texan will go to the polls, more than half of registered voters,
O’Rourke pushed the pedal-to-the-metal in the waning days of the race, visiting all of Tesas’s 254 counties. Believing the polls are all wrong, O’Rourke hopes to pull off the upset, beating one of the Senate’s most conservative voices. At the end of the day, all indications point toward Cruz pulling of the victory, despite a narrowing in the polls. When conservative Texans show up on Election Day, they’re not switching loyalty to vote for O’Rourke, no matter how charming. Record-breaking voter registration or voter turnout looks to favor Democrats but conservative voters usually show up in more reliable numbers. Nowhere is the battleground more hyped than Texas, where voters are on full alert about migrant caravans approaching the Tezas border. When Trump decided to send up to 15,000 U.S. troops to the Mexican border Nov. 1, conservative Texas voters got the message to show up and vote.
Texas registered about 1.7 million voters more than the 2014 Midterms, suggesting that Cruz’s race will be tighter against O’Rourke than expected. Election officials say at least 60% of the newly registered voters are Democrats. Unlike other candidates, O’Rourke was a known quantity in Texas, serving three terms in Congress. His love of campaigning and ability to mix it up with Cruz in the debates while staying positive indicates that he’s a rising star in the Democratic Party, regardless of today’s outcome. O’Rourke had difficulty making inroads in the Panhandle region where voters tend to be more conservative. Cruz has the edge in the conservative Fort Worth area, despite the fact that former NFL player Democrat Colin Allred looks like he’ll beat Rep. Peter Sessions (R-Texas.). Allred’s victory doesn’t spell doom for Cruz who’s looking good against O’Rourke.
Beating O’Rourke was no easy task for Cruz who’s learned a lot since losing to Trump in the 2016 primaries. With Trump burying the hatchet and stumping for Cruz in Texas, Cruz has pivoted from his hardcore Tea Party stance. Moving more to the conservative center, Cruz learned the hard way about mending fences after a bitter rivalry against Trump in 2016. Looking like he’s beat back O’Rourke’s challenge, look for Cruz, like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), to become a more vociferous backer of Trump’s agenda in the next two years. Cruz’s expected win over O’Rourke shows that even the Texas GOP must show less partisanship while they seek to build a more inclusive base in Texas as demographics change. Cruz found out that Trump’s been a powerful voice to help the GOP hold onto the Senate and keep House races competitive heading into 2020.
