Striking Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria last night, Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] responded forcefully to Iran firing 20 rockets into Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time ordering F-14 strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah targets from which the rocket attacks emanated. Iran’s missile attack happened less that 48 hours after President Donald Trump cancelled U.S. involvement in former President Barack Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal AKA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA], restricting Iran’s weapons grade uranium enrichment program. Trump bailed out because Iran’s Mullahs would not permit U.N. weapons inspectors from entering military sites, making the agreement impossible to verify. Iran claims its in U.N. compliance but only because inspectors visit only government-approved sites.
Iran’s missile strikes directly relate to Trump pulling out of the Iranian Nuke Deal, against objections from European allies, Russia and China. All subscribe to Obama’s belief that some deal was better than no deal. Trump disagreed, insisting that re-imposing harsh economic sanctions would eventually bring Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the bargaining table. Unlike Trump, the EU thinks the JCPA provides the best check against Iran illicit nuclear bomb-making program. Trump sees harsh economic sanctions as the best Plan B, putting pressure on the Islamic Republic to stop its proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. From all accounts, Israel’s air strikes decimated Iran’s war-making infrastructure in Syria, where an Iranian drone crossed into Israeli air space April 13, prompting the IDF to strike it down. Watching its war-making infrastructure go up in smoke, Iran looks to retaliate.
Iran knows that Israel is the last country in the Middle East they’d like to engage, considering Israel’s sophisticated firepower. Hitting the Golan Heights with a rocket barrage was bound to trigger immediate retaliation by the IDF, wiping out Iran’s military sites near Damascus. Iran typically lets its militia Hezbollah do the dirty work, seeking cover from U.N. condemnation. “Israel has a right to defend itself,” said the EU, concerned that the escalation was “extremely worrying.” French President Emmanuel Macron, who supported the JCPA, urged “Iran to restrain from any military provocation.” If history’s any judge, Beirut-base Hezbollah could start firing rockets at any time. Hezbollah as its own limitations, knowing any attack on Israel would result in destroying Lebanon’s infrastructure. Hezbollah’s Aug. 6, 2006 war with Israel cost Lebanon considerable destruction.
Iran’s caught between a rock-and-a-hard-place, trying to save face after boldly striking Israel in the Golan Heights. “We condemn Iran’s attack on Israel. Israel has every right to defend itself,” said British Prime Minister Theresa May. While expressing support for the JCPA after Trump bailed out, May now sees why Trump could no longer continue the agreement in clear conscience. With Iran wreaking havoc in Yemen and Syria, bombing Israel drove the point home why the U.S. needed to exit the agreement. “We call on Iran to refrain from any further attacks and for cal on all sides. We call on Russia to use its influence in Syria to prevent further Iranian attacks,” said May’s spokesman James Slack. Trump condemned Iran’s attacks on Israel, showing exactly why he bailed out of the JCPA. Trump believes that only more economic sanctions can get Iran to stop its aggression.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said today, “Israel absolutely has a sovereign right to defend itself. Trump said Iran’s attempt to set up permanent military bases in Syria to attack Israel was outrageous. “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] bears full responsibility for the consequences of its reckless a actions,” said a White House statement, urging Iran to refrain from further actions. Trump warned Iran yesterday that any attempt by Iran to ramp up weapons grade uranium enrichment activities would be met with a strong response, though stopping short of saying what that would be. Meeting with Netanyahu in Moscow today for a celebration marking the defeat of the Nazi regime ending WW II, Russian officials warned against escalation. “All of this is very alarming and raising concerns. It is necessary to deescalate tensions . . .” said the Russian Foreign Ministry.
If Iran has any shot of preserving what’s left of the JCPA, they’d better show restraint when it comes to Israel. Hitting the IRGC’s al-Quds Force, including intel sites, logistics headquarters, a military compound and logistic complex in Kiswah near Damascus, Israel has already inflicted serious damage to Iran’s military operations in Syria. One more attack against Israel, the U.K. and EU’s close to joining Trump ending involvement in the Iranian Nuke Deal Hitting Israel has symbolic value but exposes for all to see Iran’s military vulnerabilities. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman made clear that Israel would not accept any attacks from Iran’s bases in Syria. If Iran continues to retaliate, especially on Israel’s 70th anniversary celebration May 14. they would kill what’s left of the Nuke Deal, prompting Israel to strike more targets in Syria and elsewhere.
