Warning 71-year-old President Donald Trump to not back out of the July 15, 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said he’s prepared to respond if Trump backs out. Instead of letting the May 12 deadline play out, Rouhani practically guaranteed that Trump would exit the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA] negotiated for two years by former Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s 56-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarit. Rouhani’s veiled threat hints that Iran would once again ramp up its nuclear enrichment program, making weapons grade fuel. While Iran denies that it ever sought to build a bomb, Western intelligence agencies all agreed that Iran was deeply involved in weaponizing uranium, stockpiling enough fissile material for several A-bombs. Rouhani hinted that if Trump backs out, he’d give the green light on enriching uranium.
Trump and his newly minted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo believe that former President Barack Obama’s agreement with Iran handed the Islamic Republic obscene amounts of cash and sanctions relief, without guaranteeing that Iran would dismantle its nukes and ballistic missile program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly discouraged Obama from the deal, believing it would only delay Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon. “We have plans to resist any decision by Trump on the nuclear accord,” Rouhani said on State TV. If Iran insists it had only a peaceful uranium enrichment program, why would Rouhani threaten to restart the program if Trump bails out the deal? “Orders have been issued to our atomic energy organization—and to the economic sector to confront America’s plots gains our economy,” said Rouhani, worried about Trump re-imposing economic sanctions.
Obama’s 2015 Nuke Deal provided no provision for intrusive inspections by U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] of Iran’s sensitive military sites. While Zarif insists that the IAEA has Iran in full compliance with the 2015 agreement, there’s no inspections at Iran’s military sites. Without intrusive IAEA inspections, there’s no way to verify if Iran ever stopped its weapons grade uranium enrichment program. Britain, France and Germany want to reopen talks about Iran’s ballistic missile program and to deal with enrichment activities beyond the 2015 moratorium. Trump believes—as does Israel and Saudi Arabia—that Iran has been up to no good supplying arms-and-cash to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus regime. With Iran engaged in mischief around the Middle East and Yemen, Trump sees the 2015 as worthless.
With Israel’s May 14 70th anniversary celebration happening May 14 in Jerusalem, there’s growing concern that Iran might launch a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. Iran insists it will not renegotiate the 2015 accord or add on to the 2015 agreement. “You [U.S.] should know that you cannot threaten this great nation because our people withstood eight years of . . . defense [in the war with Iraq],” Rouhani said visiting the Razavi Khorasan province. Rouhani knows the U.S. is no Iraq and in any military confrontation could inflict serious damage on Iran’s petroleum infrastructure and the economy. “We want to perverse of peaceful nuclear technology for electricity, medicine, agriculture and health . . . and we don not seek to threaten the world or the region,” said Rouhani. If that’s true, why does Rouhani threaten to ramp Iran’s uranium enrichment program if Trump backs out?
Meeting with Trump at the White House April 22, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed concern about abandoning the Nuke Deal. “We would open the Pandora’s Box. There could be war,” Macron told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine. “I don’t think Donald Trump wants war,” said Macron, but worried what Iran would do if Trump backs out and restarts new sanctions. What Macron and other European allies don’t get is the JCPA provides Iran cover to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile program, not to mention meddling in Syria and Yemen. With Iranian missiles fired by Houthi rebels fell close to Riyadh’s International Airport March 25, Saudi’s 33-year-old Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman blamed Iran for destabilizing the region. Trump wants Iran to stop its proxy war against Saudi Arabia and stop building military bases in Syria.
All indications point to Trump backing out of Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal, seeking more economic leverage with Iran. Letting Iran continue to wage a proxy war in Yemen and get dangerously close to a proxy war against Israel, Trump can’t see how the 2015 Nuke Deal does anything to rein in Iran. If Iran really enriched uranium for only peaceful purposes, the Western alliance would not have nagging suspicious about Iran’s bomb-making capabilities If Trump felt the JCPA worked to keep Iran in check, he’d be the first to back the agreement. Watching Iran wreak havoc in Syria and Yemen, now directly threatening Israel, Trump’s made up his mind that Obama’s 2015 agreement hurts U.S. national security. Without more leverage from economic sanctions, there’s no stopping Iran from developing permanent bases in Syria, potentially threatening Israel with ballistic missiles.
