Hoping to convince 71-yeare-old President Donald Trump that there’s no “Plan B” when it comes to former President Barack Obama’s 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal, 41-year-old French President Emmanuel Macron has a tough sell. Trump’s been talking of scraping the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA], requiring Iran to suspend its military grade uranium enrichment program. Iran vigorously denies that its nuclear enrichment program was aimed at producing enough weapons’ grade uranium to produce an A-bomb. Yet with all of Iran’s denials, the P5+1, including the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany, all signed on to the July 14, 2015 deal requiring Iran to suspend its military grade enrichment program for 10 years, giving the international community some breathing room. Macron knows that of course there’s a Plan B, Plan C or Plan D if Trump scraps the deal.
Saying the U.S. and France will have an important role to play in rebuilding Syria, Macron insisted there’s no Plan B when it comes to the Iranian Nuke Deal. U.S. officials aren’t happy about the fact that Iran, under Russia’s wing, has a permanent foothold in Syria, threatening a wider escalation with Israel. Flying predator drones from a Syrian airbase into Israel, Iran wants nothing more to keep its Revolutionary Guards in Syria permanently, posing a new threat to Israel. Iran’s Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami said April 20 that “Fingers on the trigger, missiles ready to launch,” promising some fireworks after Israel’s April 10 missile strike at an Iranian predator drone base in Syria. With Israel poised to celebrate its 70th anniversary in Jerusalem May 14, there’s growing concern that Tehran could do something stupid, including hitting Tel Aviv with Trump present at anniversary celebrations.
Iran’s growing boldness in Syria stems from the Russian umbrella, fighting side-by-side with Moscow to beat back as Saudi-funded insurgency to topple President Bashar al-Assad. Macron’s kidding himself that, at least now, there’s a role for the West in rebuilding Syria. Saudi Arabia’s 33-year-old Defense Secretary Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salaman has made clear there’s no change in Saudi policy when it comes to al-Assad. Macron argues there’s no Plan B but the so-called Plan B worked before the Iranian Nuke Deal and would work afterwards. Plan B. involves re-instituting Iranian sanctions, crippling Iran’s petroleum exports, the mainstay on Iran’s economy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the Iranian Nuke Deal from Day One, saying it give Iran all the cash-and-time needed to pursue an A-bomb and long-range ballistic missiles on its own schedule.
Negotiated with Iran’s U.S.-educated 58-year-old Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for nearly two years with former Secretary of State John Kerry, the Iranian Nuke Deal provided for no intrusive inspections at Iran’s military sites. Without intrusive inspections by the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], Netanyahu argued to a joint session of Congress March 3, 2015, what’s the point? Giving Iran oodles of cash and not inspecting sensitive military sites, there’s no guarantee for Iran’s compliance with the deal. If Macron wants a Plan B, it’s going back to the old sanctions routine that crippled the Iranian economy, giving Iran the choice between nuke sand financial ruin. With all the denials about Iran working on a nuclear weapon, what does the West have to lose scrapping the deal? Zarif says if Trump scraps the deal, Iran will resume all nuclear enrichment.
With North Korea apparently willing to scrap its nukes and ballistic missile program with tough U.N. sanctions, Plan B should also work in Iran. Trump has until May 12 to decide whether or not to restore economic sanctions against Iran. Setting up permanent airbases in Syria and sending missiles and cash to battle the Saudis in Yemen, Trump’s got every right to call into question Iranian Nuke Deal.. When you consider Iran denies working on an A-bomb, ramping up its uranium enrichment program only threatens the U.S. and its allies if the Islamic Republic works on a nuke. Most U.S. allies believe that Iran, like North Korea, has its eyes on developing an operational nuke together with its Shahab long-range ballistic missile program. Macron needs to face reality that Iran does not permit under the JCPA, IAEA inspections at sensitive Iranian military sites.
Marcron’s concerns about a workable Plan B fails to see that Plan A has failed to accomplish its stated goal of preventing Iran from getting a nuke. If the West has no clue what goes on at Iran’s sensitive military sites, it’s reasonable to conclude that enrichment activities continue to go on. Plan B would slap Tehran with harsh new sanctions for resuming its nuclear enrichment program. There’s no current verification if the IAEA can’t enter Iran’s secret military sites. “I don’t have any Plan B,” said Macron, before meeting with Trump for the next three days in Washington. When Macron finishes his visit, he’ll know for sure there’s a Plan B, something Iran dreads, despite warning by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Zarif that Iran would quickly resume all uranium enrichment activities if Trump scraps the 2015 JCPA. Macron knows Plan B more than he admits.
