Mending fences after nearly coming to blows when Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 fighter jet Nov. 24, 2015, 63-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed he understood the concept of linkage, building ties with foreign adversaries. When you consider the high stakes confronting the U.S. around the globe, 71-year-old President Donald Trump needs all the friends he can get. Yet members of the U.S. Congress continue to make reconciliation with Russia next to impossible. Accused by U.S. spy agencies of influencing the 2016 presidential election, Russia hysteria has swept Washington, with most lawmakers opposing reconciliation with Moscow. Trump travels to Hamburg, Germany to attend the G20 July 7,8, hoping to build stronger relations with Moscow and a host of other nations. Erdogan epitomizes keeping your friends close and your enemies closer.
U.S.-Russian relations under former President Barack Obama deteriorated to Cold Wars lows, leaving the U.S. unable to exert leverage around the globe. With Russia on the U.S. side, it’s easier to deal with North Korea and Iran, both seen as U.S. enemies. While it took time after Turkey downed the Russian fighter jet to improve relations, Erdogan realized he’s better off mending fences with Russia to implement a coherent strategy in Syria. With Putin protecting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan realized his strategy of funding a proxy war to topple al-Assad was counterproductive. Erdogan realized that Putin’s in Syria for the long haul, making funding the seven-year-old proxy war a fiasco. Erdogan realized he had bigger fish to fry confronting the Kurd’s YPG militia, currently working with other Arab groups to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS].
Watching Erdogan skillfully deal with Putin should remind Trump and the U.S. State Department that it does the U.S. no good to hype the rhetoric, exaggerate the differences and denounce Moscow, regardless of today’s investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 campaign. However the Russian investigations play out, the State Department needs to capitalize on Putin’s clout in areas where the U.S. has none. When it comes to North Korea, perhaps saving the Korean Peninsula of a new war, Putin could be of great benefit to the U.S. Erdogan has no great love of the Kremlin but knows Putin exerts influence over Turkey’s mortal enemy, the Kurds. With the U.S. arming the Kurds to fight ISIS with other Arab groups in Syria, Erdogan wants reassurances that after toppling ISIS, the Kurds won’t try to annex territory in Syria or Iraq for an independent Kurdish state.
Russia has enough clout in the region to keep the Kurds in check, despite receiving U.S. arms-and-cash to fight ISIS. Rolling out the red carpet in Istanbul for Russia, Erdogan met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, trying to neutralize the YPG’s potential interest in a Kurdish state. Meeting at Instanbul’s Tarabya Palace on the banks of the Bosphorus, Erdogan showed how he plays Moscow against the U.S. Erdogan wants assurances from Moscow that they won’t allow the Kurds to assert control on the Turkish border. Launching Operation Euphrates Shield to clear Kurdish forces from border areas in Northern Syria. Having Moscow’s support helps neutralize any military gains from U.S. arms made by the Kurds. Exchanging cross-border fire, Turkey and the Kurds continue to skirmish around border areas, where Erdogan refuses to cede territory to the YPG.
Knocking at the door of ISIS in Raqqa, Syria and Mosul, Iraq, the YPG with U.S. military assistance are getting closer to evicting ISIS. Erdogan’s done next-to-nothing in the battle against ISIS, with rumors swirling about his son, Bilal, running an illicit ISIS oil business in Turkey. Defeating ISIS looks low on the food chain for Erdogan, focusing his efforts on containing the Kurd’s ambition of an independent state. “We take all measures to protect our borders and national security,” said Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin. Erdogan asked Shoigu for military air support if Turkey uses pro-Ankara Syrian rebels to battle the Kurds near Afrin in the Aleppo region. Erdogan knows asking Moscow for air support against the YPG pits the Kremlin directly against U.S. Special Forces helping in the battle against ISIS. Erdogan shows he’s only concerned about Turkey, not battling ISIS.
Whatever one thinks of Erdogan’s strategy against the YPG, it’s brilliant to use linkage with Moscow to achieve his goals. Trump and the State Department should work hard toward reminding anti-Russia war hawks on Capitol Hill to stop the anti-Russian hysteria currently making a reset of U.S.-Russian relations impossible. Whatever Russian did to interfere with the U.S. election, it’s up to U.S. officials to implement betters cyber-security in the future. If Russian hackers breached U.S. firewalls, then it’s time for the U.S. to beef up its cyber-security. Erdogan showed firsthand the value of linkage, bridging differences with adversaries to achieve specific foreign policy objectives. When Trump meets with Putin in Hamburg this week, Capitol Hill anti-Russian war hawks should tone down the rhetoric, letting Trump’s foreign policy team reestablish linkage.
