Shocking the world, 70-year-old President Donald Trump bailed out the Paris Climate Agreement, signed by President Barack Obama April 22, 2016. Obligating the U.S. to reduce its carbon footprint by an unspecified amount, all 195 countries signed onto the agreement that doesn’t specify the exact amount of greenhouse gases reduced by a specific date, only providing recommended targets without penalties for noncompliance. Hoping to keep global temperature from rising only 2 degrees, the Paris Agreement is no guarantee of anything. What the agreement asks is that countries agree to stay at peak levels of carbon emissions and begin reducing them at the earliest possible time. Bailing out, Trump fulfills a campaign promise to coal miners in the upper Midwest and Northeast, whose mines have been shuttered under strict Environmental Protection Agency regulations.
Trump’s decision to pull out of Paris accord puts the global community on notice that the United States plans to lead the way in reducing carbon emissions but because of a global protocol designed for the developing world, especially China and India, where industrial pollution has made many of the largest cities uninhabitable, it doesn’t fit the U.S. “The United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord, but begin negotiations to reenter either the Paris accord or an entirely new transaction on terms that are fair to the United States, its businesses, its workers, its people, its taxpayers—so we’re getting out,” Trump told a Rose Garden gathering to loud applause. Trump made his decision after returning from the G-7 in Sicily last week, realizing that the U.S. cannot follow global agreements without damaging the U.S. economy. Ramping up the coal industry would run afoul with the Paris Agreement.
France, Italy and Germany released the statements that the terms of the Paris Agreement “cannot be negotiated,” despite deliberately flexible language in the agreement allowing all countries to determine the proper levels of CO2 emissions based on individual needs. “If you look at the Europeans and you look at other major economies or allies or partners, they have strong interest in finding common ground with United States,” said an unnamed White House official, believing there’s a path to the U.S. joining the agreement. Unlike former President Barack Obama, Trump’s not inclined to join international agreements, believing the U.S. already meets or exceeds international standards for environmental protection. Without pulling out of the Paris Agreement, Trump could not fulfill a campaign promise to unemployed coal miners looking to go back to work.
Pulling out the Paris accord was about the most politically incorrect decision the president could make, antagonizing Democrats and the international community. Trump’s decision was aided by his experience at the G-7 where German Chancellor Angela Merkel told colleagues the European Union could no longer count on trans-Atlantic partnerships, namely, the U.S. Trump reminded Merkel that Germany holds a substantial trade surplus with U.S., selling its cars and other products without tariffs or restrictions. Trump realized that U.S. trading partners prefer a one-way street, costing the U.S. manufacturing and jobs. Bailing out of the Paris Agreement opens the very real possibility that Trump may withdraw from the July 14, 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal, where Obama gave Iran billions in cash and sanctions relief in exchange for a temporary deal to limit uranium enrichment.
Undoing the Iranian Nuke Deal would be more complicated than withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. U.S., Great Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany [P5+1] signed onto the Iran Nuke Deal, making it more complicated to unravel. White House officials indicated April 18 that Iran was complying with terms of the Nuke Deal, continuing to limit uranium enrichment at Iran’s Natanz facility to 3.67% for use as nuclear reactor fuel. U.N. weapons inspectors are to be give access to all Iran’s past nuclear enrichment facilities to guarantee compliance. Unlike the Paris Agreement, the Iranian Nuke Deal doesn’t cost American jobs in the coal industry. White House officials look less inclined to reopen the Iran Nuke Deal while simultaneously working with allies to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] in Iraq and Syria, something more difficult than expected.
Trump’s decision to scuttle the Paris Climate Accord had nothing to do with the U.S. ignoring recommendations for reducing carbon emissions. Instead of going out-of-compliance with the accord to reopen shuttered coal mines, Trump decided to protect U.S. coal miners over international agreements. “I think that the fact that the president in his speech today said that he wants to come back and renegotiate a better deal for the United States and for the world pretty much speaks for itself,” said an unnamed White House official, responding to gotcha questions about whether or not the president believes man-made activity contributes to climate change. If the Paris Climate Committee agrees to let the U.S. reopen its coal industry, Trump won’t have a problem signing onto the agreement. Preventing U.S. coal workers from going back to work remains a deal breaker.
