Speaking to a joint session of Congress tonight in what amounts to his first State of the Union speech, 70-year-old Donald Trump hopes to reach out to both sides of the aisle, both skeptical of his populist anti-establishment agenda. Speaking at a campaign-style rally Feb. 18 in Melbourne, Florida, Trump slammed the media, appealing to his base for support. Trump finds himself with a strong grassroots following of working class folks, disgusted with Washington’s business-as-usual gridlock. Trump hopes he can spread his anti-establishment agenda to Democrats and members of his own party. Top on peoples’ minds are his promise to repeal-and-replace Obamacare, something Trump admitted was far more “complex” than he thought. With over 20 million Americans relying of Obamacare, Trump’s finding it more difficult to find a suitable replacement, especially within his own party.
Conservative members of the GOP-controlled House known as the Freedom Caucus can’t stomach the fact thaT any replacement carries the same entitlements as Obamacare. No matter how you cut it, the government has to pony up for the less fortunate, whether they’re the working poor or self-employed. Obamacare enabled self-employed individuals, without the benefit of group coverage, to obtain insurance without financial penalties as in the past. Insurance industry practices historically punished self-employed individuals for getting health coverage. Obamacare has the unique quality of finally ending the distinction between individual and group insurance. While Trump’s in no position to go into the details of the new GOP Obamacare replacement, he’s going to sell the public that better care is on the way. Faced with rising federal budget deficits, Trump’s got limited resources.
Seeking a $54 billion or 10% increase to the Pentagon’s budget, Trump’s got some juggling to perform, wanting to beef up the military without slashing budgets in other parts of government. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) already signaled that slashing the State Department budget won’t fly. Given a new plan to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] by Defense Secretary James Mattis, Trump hopes to sell the idea of a more muscular military approach to ridding ISIS from Iraq’s Mosul and Syria’s Raqqa. Iraqi Security Forces and Syrian coalition forces need more reinforcements to accomplish the job. Trump hoped to partner with Russian President Vladimir Putin to go after ISIS in Iraq and Syria, something less likely in Washington’s recent bout of Russo-phobia. Russia and China vetoed a Security Resolution today to sanction Syria for using chlorine gas.
Trump biggest challenge by far in tonight’s speech is explaining his border enforcement plan that witnessed recently raids-and-deportations of undocumented workers, not convicted or charged with violent felonies. Lawmakers want to hear firsthand Trump’s plans with Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals [DACA] and the Dream Act, giving children of illegal aliens a path to legal status. Trump’s been leaning toward immigration legislation that gives undocumented workers a path to legal status, not citizenship. Planning to introduce a new executive order travel ban tomorrow, Trump’s got a lot of explaining to do how the new order will comply with the Constitution. When Trump issued the Jan. 27 travel ban including seven Mideast and North African countries, it created chaos at airports, prompting Seattle District Court Judge James Robart Feb. 4 to issue a stay.
Trump has no problem speaking to partisan campaign rallies but has difficulty finding common ground with mainstream Democrats and Republicans. If he wants to get anything done in his presidency, he has to find common groups with both parties. Whether it’s on domestic or foreign policy, Trump must partner with both parties to get anything done, especially increasing the defense budget by 10%. Faced with a debt ceiling increase March 15, Trump walks a razor’s edge trying to fund discretionary projects like the $20 billion border wall, when he seeks $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, then expects to pass whopping tax breaks for corporations and millionaires. Given the 2017 federal budget deficits could top $1 trillion, Trump needs to find the revenue streams needed to fund Defense Department increase and national infrastructure spending projects.
Facing a joint session of Congress tonight, Trump wants to highlight victims of illegal aliens to advance his crackdown on illegal immigration. While there’s sympathies for victims of criminal aliens, there’s far more violence in American inner cities, especially Chicago, to beat a dead horse about the evils of illegal immigration. Faced with what he calls “complex” problems with health care, Trump needs to find common ground with members of Congress when it comes to border security and the new replacement for Obamacare. If the GOP’s plan involves cutting millions off Obamacare, it’s going to be opposed by all Democrats and some Republicans. Recent town hall meetings indicate that the public has anxiety about Trump’s health care plans. Instead of targeting his base, Trump needs to sell mainstream Republicans and Democrats on his domestic and foreign policy agenda.
