Beating back the semi-covert anti-Trump movement, 69-year-old real estate tycoon Donald Trump hit 994 pledged delegates only 243 shy of the magic number of 1,237. Despite the best efforts of the Republican Party establishment led by former 2016 GOP candidates Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and 2012 GOP nominee former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, Trump stands at the door of the nomination. No matter how much sour grapes from his former rivals, Trump’s ace-in-the-hole are rank-and-file GOP voters disgusted with Washington’s business-as-usual. While Democratic presumptive nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton paints Trump as a misogynist and racist, Democratic insiders don’t want to face Trump with his appeal to independents and disgruntled Democrats.
Hillary rolled the dice, ignoring her chief rival Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for a VP pick, knowing that some percentage of Bernie supporters won’t back her in November. Thinking that Sanders’ supporters would automatically back her, Hillary miscalculates the disgust among Bernie supporters with the status quo. Expecting Sanders’ insurgent backers to jump on the Hillary bandwagon is wishful thinking. Some percentage of Bernie supporters will back Trump because of his outsider campaign. It’s going to be difficult for Hillary to pivot to the right in the general election with such a strong liberal track record. Hillary’s VP choice will most likely go to a fairly conservative white male, like Sen. Sherrod Brow (D-Ohio) or Sen. Tim Caine (D-Va.). Trump, on the other hand, needs a savvy politician with a proven track record on the campaign and in public office.
Prevailing wisdom indicates that Trump will pick a former GOP candidate like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.), Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) or New Jersey Gov. Chris Charistie, all offering different things for different people. Trump’s such a bigger-than-life-figure, he doesn’t need anyone to shore up his weaknesses. After losing badly in South Carolina Feb. 20, Jeb dropped out the race, pursing a new mission of preventing Trump from getting the nomination. Watching Trump steamroll through New York April 19 and five states in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast April 26, Jeb told CNN Trump was not a “serious” candidate. Jeb doesn’t respect the will of GOP voters overwhelmingly picking Trump as their nominee. Continuing his mission to sabotage Trump’s candidacy, Jeb’s anti-Trump crusade has lost steam.
Jeb might have been in contention for VP if his ego didn’t get in the way. Jeb’s the last 2016 candidate Trump would consider because of his determined effort to sabotage his campaign. Jeb can’t forget Feb. 14, on the eve of the South Carolina primary, Trump calling out his brother, former President George W. Bush, for the disastrous Iraq War. “Obviously the Iraq War was a big fat mistake, all right?” said Trump. “George Bush made a mistake, we can make mistakes. But that one was a beauty,” prompting Jeb to counter his brother “kept America safe.” Joined by Sen. John McCain, Graham and Romney, Jeb’s stop Trump campaign has fizzled. Despite trounced by Trump March 15 in Florida, Rubio continues to be mentioned as a possible Trump running mate. With Rubio hitting below the belt before the Florida primary, it’s doubtful Trump would give him much consideration.
Hanging in the race without winning anything other than his home state of Ohio, some suggest Kasich would be a logical pick for Trump heading into November. Kasich continues to play spoiler, staying in the race with 153 delegates, 10 less that Rubio when he dropped out March 16. Staying in the race has discredited Kasich, presenting himself more an RNC spoiler than a serious candidate. RNC’s so-called Ron Paul rule, requiring majorities in eight states, prevents Kasich from consideration at the Party’s July convention in Cleveland. Picking Kasich, no matter how conciliatory, would hurt Trump’s credibility, picking someone incapable of winning primaries or generating much buzz. Staying in the race at the RNC’s request to deny Trump the nomination prevents Kasich from real consideration. Narrowly losing in Ohio March 15, Trump doesn’t need Kasich to win in November.
Picking a woman like Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) would look like Trump’s pandering to women, trying to peel off some of Hillary’s votes. Trump’s appeal isn’t about pandering to anyone but promising a brighter future. Whatever Trump’s problems with women, they didn’t show up with GOP women voters in New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Trump’s critics like to cite his low approval ratings among women, something that didn’t happen in New York and the I-95 primaries. While there’s some mention of Florida Gov. Rick Scott, Trump’s big win against Rubio March 15 proved he can win in the Sunshine State. Leading the pack of VP picks by far is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Only Christie brings the fiery campaign skills needed to sell Trump’s agenda to independents and cross over Democrats, key to winning the White House.
