Battling the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] to retake the ancient city of Palmyra, the Syria army upended the ongoing Geneva peace talks led by 69-year-old U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura. Suspending peace talks March 24 until April 9, de Mistura hoped to buy more time to allow U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to meet with Russian President Vladimir March 24 to gage Moscow’s willingness to go along with Saudi Arabia’s Syria transition plan that excludes Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Kerry had no good news for de Mistura that Putin was willing to toss his long-time ally al-Assad under the bus. With strong Russian air support, the Syrian army re-captured Palmyra March 27 from ISIS, a major victory for al-Assad. Since losing some 30% of Syria to ISIS in 2014, al-Assad has battled a multi-pronged proxy war against his Shiite government.
Returning to Geneva, Kerry knows that Putin has no intent to abandoning al-Assad, bad news for the Saudis and Turks, still thinking they can decide what happens with Damascus. De Mistura shows no stomach for challenging the Saudi, Turkish and U.S. proxy war against al-Assad. When peace talks resume April 9 in Geneva, de Mistura will have to face the music that al-Assad isn’t going anywhere. Kerry and Putin helped broker a shaky, but holding, Syria ceasefire Feb. 27, once Saudi-funded rebel groups were close to defeat. Killing Saudi’s main rebel group Jaysh al-Islam’s leader Zahran Alloush Dec. 25 in a Russian air strike was a blow to Saudi-backed rebel groups. Retaking Palmyra shows al-Assad continues to battle to reclaim territory lost to ISIS. Battling Saudi, Turkish and U.S.-backed rebel groups in Syria is no longer workable with Russia backing al-Assad.
When de Mistura’s peace talks resume April 9, rebel groups will have to face the new reality that the ceasefire prevents rebel group from waging war against al-Assad’s Shiite government. Sifting through Palmyra’s ancient Roman ruins shows ISIS’s barbaric rampage against human history. With al-Assad spilling blood to protect Syria’s ancient history, it’s more difficult for de Mistura to accept the intransient Saudi demand that al-Assad be removed from power. Kerry and Putin’s Feb. 27 ceasefire make it difficult for Saudi-backed opposition groups to continue the fight. If Saudi-backed rebel groups break the ceasefire, Putin signaled he’ll resume air strikes. De Mistura hoped Kerry would bring a different message from Putin. Kerry and Putin’s ceasefire out-maneuvers the Saudis and Turks, preventing rebel forces from resuming the fight against al-Assad’s Shiite regime.
Calling retaking Palmyra a “significant achievement,” al-Asad touted his success against terrorists, “new evidence of the effectiveness of the strategy espoused by the Syrian army and its allies in the war against terrorism.” Saudi’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has told de Mistura that the Kingdom has no intent on letting al-Assad stay in power. “The government [Syria] wants through this operation to win the favor of Western nations by fighting against terrorism, while obscuring its responsibility as providing the reasons for the spread of terror,” said Khaled Nasser, a member of Saudi’s High Negotiation Committee, sensing cracks in the U.S. position. Why President Barack Obama backed the Saudi proxy war against Syria for the past five years is anyone’s guess. Retaking Palmyra puts back into focus Syria’s fight against ISIS, something of little interest to the Saudis and Turks.
De Mistura has a lot of explaining to do selling Saudi Arabia’s plan to topple al-Assad’s Shiite government. No Saudi, Turkish or U.S. official has explained why al-Assad must go, other than saying he’s a bad guy. Taking back Palmyra changes al-Assad’s narrative, battling not only ISIS but also Saudi, Turkish and U.S.-backed rebel groups. Confirming that ISIS abandoned Palmyra, Britain-based Observatory for Human Rights verified that ISIS was driven out of Palmyra. “It’s joyful for people to return home. Still we are sad to see damage in this historical city,” said Sohban Eleiwi, a Palmyra businessman living in Homs. Returning to Geneva April 9, the situation has changed for de Mistura who once accepted the Saudi narrative that al-Assad must go. De Mistura must work feverishly on Plan B, letting al-Assad stay in power while world powers focus on defeating ISIS.
Returning to Geneva April 9, de Mistura and Kerry must inform Saudi Arabia that the days of forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power are over. With Putin helping battle ISIS to retake sovereign Syrian land, the U.S. and European Union can no longer rip Moscow for only battling Saudi-backed rebel groups. Retaking Palmyra changed the landscape, forcing all parties to prioritize the fight against ISIS, not changing regimes in Damascus. Saudi’s High Negotiation Committee can’t insist on ousting al-Assad when he’s now leading the fight in Syria against ISIS. As long as the ceasefire holds, Saudi’s High Negotiation Committee can’t restart the war unilaterally without risking more Russian air strikes. De Mistura’s peace talks should refocus on developing multinational coalition to defeat ISIS before resuming any discussion on who’s the right leader in Syria.
