Telling Congress Feb. 10 that a rate cut was unlikely, Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen hinted that there’s still a chance the Fed will tighten more in 2016. Yellen’s words aren’t taken lightly by Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 approaching correction phase, down about 16% from May 19, 2015 highs. Already in correction phase down over 20%, the tech-rich Nasdaq shows no signs of bouncing back. Yellen hopes the 2015 fourth-quarter drop of Gross Domestic Product to 2.2% will rebound because of a robust jobs market, dropping the unemployment rate under 5%. Using the unemployment rate, inflation number and drop in jobless claims, Yellen hiked Dec. 16, 2015 the Federal Funds Rate, only to watch Wall Street lose some 12% of its value. Yellen and her Open Market Committee pretend the economy is immune to the stock market.
Losing over 11% in 2016, in the worst yearly opening since 2008, a continued stock market drop could plunge the economy into recession. Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff warned Yellen that if she continues tightening, it could send Wall Street into lasting bear market. “Unless the Fed totally capitulates, this bear market is going to be brutal,” Schiff told CNBC’s “Futures Now.” Schiff believes Yellen jumped the gun hiking rates Dec. 16, only a year-year-and-a-half after ending QE3, the Fed’s bond-buying program. Fed policies resist stock market fluctuations, realizing frenzied buying-and-selling or selling-and-buying goes with Walls Street’s territory. Whether admitted to or not, Wall Street usually wins when it comes to battles with the Fed. When Yellen raised rates last December, she reluctantly admitted that the U.S. economy was now tied to global trends.
China’s historic stock market meltdown and currency devaluation Aug. 16 spells trouble for the U.S. and European Union economies. With both economies dependent on each other, U.S. and EU growth go hand-in-hand with China. “She’s [Yellen’s] finally admitted that other countries in the world affect our interest rates here,” said Mark Sebastian, managing director of Chicago-based Option Pit. Sebastian notes that the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank has been lowering rates and using quantitative easing to reverse sluggish growth. EU’s refugee crisis, largely caused by the Saudi-funded Syrian proxy war, has stretched the ECB resources to the breaking point. Yellen’s decision to hike rates after 8 years came with risks. Yellen’s economic data validated that the Fed’s inflation number remained dangerously close to deflation, too low to hike rates.
Wall Street’s recent meltdown has implications for the 2016 presidential race, where Republicans have argued that the U.S. economy, while better than the Great Recession of 2008 under former President George W. Bush, is on shaky ground. Dragging the former president to campaign stops carries risks for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose campaign has one last shot in South Caroline before folding. Voters still recall the Great Recession, fearing history could repeat itself with another Bush presidency. “I don’t see consumers shaken by market events enough to stop spending,” said Dean Maki, chief economist at Stamford, Conn.-based Point72 Asset Management LP. Maki knows that if Wall Street continues to sell-off, it spells trouble for U.S. GDP now hovering close to zero growth. Yellen’s promise to tighten more won’t happen if markets remain shaky.
No presidential candidate other that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has offered a fix to the current sluggish economy. Unlike former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton or GOP candidates, Bernie’s the only candidate seeking to expand the federal workforce. Since the budget Control Act of 2011 and 2013 “sequestration,” the Congress hasn’t added enough federal jobs. Bernie’s the only candidate dealing with income inequality and the wealth gap, shrinking the U.S. middle class by continuing to slash federal jobs. Bernie’s budget plans include massive infrastructure projects promising to add to the federal workforce. Republicans agree with the 2013 sequester that continues spending cuts reducing federal jobs. Low-paying private sector jobs haven’t contributed to enough consumer spending to add significantly to U.S. GDP growth, dropping in 2015 Q4.
If Yellen isn’t sensitive to Wall Street’s sell-off, today’s correction could turn into tomorrow’s recession. Recessions have the unintended but real consequence of adding to federal, state and county budget deficits, hurting government cash-flow at all levels. GOP economic policies, relying too heavily on the private sector, forget that federal and state jobs are one of the nation’s strong pillars of the middle class. Sanders staked his campaign on building the U.S. middle class by making federal jobs a top priority. Federal jobs after WWII expanded the U.S. middle class. When the Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 7, 2014 the fewest federal jobs since 1966, you’d think lawmakers would take notice. Shrinking the federal work force—a main goal GOP policies under the 2013 sequester—has damaged the U.S. middle class, but, more importantly, suppressed consumer spending and U.S. GDP growth.
