Seizing the momentum one day before the Iowa Caucuses, 69-year-old real estate mogul and former reality TV star Donald Trump got good news from the Des Moines Register poll showing him leading his closest rival Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by five percent [28% to 23%]. Cruz’s lead took a hit when leading evangelical Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. endorsed Trump Jan. 26. Falwell’s endorsement signaled to Iowa’s evangelicals that Trump could carry the Christian cause for the GOP but, more importantly, that religious conservatives had more depth to their voting than a single issue. Cruz has been criticizing Trump’s abortion credentials, citing a 1999 interview with NBC’s Tim Russert on “Meet The Press.” Trump’s been accused by Cruz and others of changing his position on abortion to capture the evangelical votes in the Iowa Caucuses.
Dredging up Trump’s quotes from 17-years ago shows how desperate Trump’s rivals have become bucking what looks like an unprecedented national trend. Riding a wave of voter discontent for both parties, Trump’s outsider status, his undeniable worldly accomplishments and his uncanny ability to talk off-the-cuff to larger crowds of voters, has given him the momentum. Attacking him on a single issue, even the vaunted pro-life cause, hasn’t worked with Iowa’s evangelicals. Cruz and the GOP’s party establishment underestimated Trump’s appeal beyond issues important to religious conservatives. More than anything, the internal 2016 voter logic involves changing things up in Washington. Picking a charismatic, independently-minded candidate like Trump makes sense even to Iowa’s evangelicals. Trump’s “birther” issues raised doubts about Cruz’s eligibility for president.
Pollsters heading into Iowa have ignored the historic national trend giving Trump momentum heading into Iowa. “Donald Trump could win Iowa,” said Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP consultant. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one’s second choice,” hinting that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) could make a strong push on Election Day. Trump’s decision to boycott the Jan. 28 Fox News debate gave GOP candidates a chance to beat up on Cruz. At one point, Cruz looked so flustered he started arguing with debate moderator Fox News anchor Chris Wallace. When his rivals kept attacking, Cruz said maybe he should leave the debate too. Trump boycotted the debate because of an inappropirate Tweet-storm by Fox News President Roger Ailes, saying Trump lacked the guts to deal with Putin and the Ayatollah. Trump finally cried foul and told Ailes to take a hike.
Heading into tomorrow’s caucuses, the wisdom of voters won’t ignore the over-arching theme of the 2016 race: That business-as-usual can go on in Washington. Unlike Trump, Democratic front-runner former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton represents the Washington status quo. Whether evangelicals in Iowa or social conservatives Texas, voters look for the strength to bend Washington’s rusting-steel-politics. Voters want more than partisan gridlock, needing a charismatic leader capable to working on both sides of the aisle. Voters like Trump’s frankness and humor, poking fun at what he sees as Washington’s “stupidity” when it comes to getting anything done Iowa voters, whether evangelical or not, still want someone to ride herd on unruly Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Trump officers Iowa the only real option to more-of-the-same.
GOP party bosses have been reluctant to admit that Trump holds the best hope for capturing the White House in 2016. Cruz has limited appeal to mainstream Republicans, independents and cross-over Democrats who also seek change in 2016. Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) speaks of a “revolution” but doesn’t appeal to middle-of-the-road folks likely to turn out for a general election. Without Hillary indicted for her email scandal, she’ll likely become the Democratic nominee. Battling Hillary won’t be easy for any GOP candidate but Trump has a greater appeal to independently-minded Democrats and voters not wed to political parties. Running against Trump in the Fall, Hillary has a tough sell convincing voters that she can get anything done with GOP-controlled Congress. Trump can argue he can get along with both political parties.
Winning Iowa would give Trump unstoppable momentum heading into New Hampshire and South Caroline, taking away any lane for Cruz to the nomination going forward. While nothing happens until Iowans caucus tomorrow, the Des Moines Register poll gives Trump confidence heading into the nation’s first voting in 2016. Iowa’s evangelical voters have been grossly stereotyped by the media and in the GOP. Evangelicals, like all other voters, seek a candidate that can win the White House. When Iowans look at Cruz carefully, they see a candidate who can’t even get along in Congress with members of his own party. While Trump’s views of religious conservatives aren’t perfect, getting Falwell’s endorsement gave evangelicals free reign to back him in Iowa. Trump’s bigger-than-life persona has eclipsed the GOP field, finally winning over enough voters to win Iowa.
