When Russian President Vladimir Putin finished hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics Feb. 23, 2014 it didn’t take long for the former KGB colonel to invade Crimea March 1, 2014. Putin watched a day earlier Ukraine’s elected leader Viktor Yanukovich chased out of Kiev in what described as a “bloodless coup.” Putin didn’t waste time countering what he thought was a CIA plot to oust Yanukovich, seizing Crimea for Mother Russia. Since annexing Crimea, the Russian Federation was ejected from the G7 March 24 with the U.S. and European Union imposing punitive economic sanctions. Putin’s sat back over the last year building alliances with rogue states, seemingly thumbing his hose at the U.S. and EU whom he fondly refers to as his global economic partners. Staying put in Crimea and backing pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region of Southeastern Ukraine, antagonized Western powers.
Worried about Putin’s new found aggression, former Soviet republics, especially in the Poland and the Baltic States, have asked NATO for more military back-up and defensive weapons, fearing a possible Russian invasion. Ukraine’s 49-year-old billionaire chocolate baron President Petro Poroshenko has played his cards close to the vest, saying, on the one hand, he backs the Minsk II Protocol that cedes autonomy to Southeastern Ukraine, while, on the other hand, saying he won’t rest until Crimea is returned to Ukraine. “We would strongly urge him [Poroshenko] to think twice not to engage in that kind of activity, that would put Minsk in serious jeopardy. And we would be very, very concerned about what the consequences of that kind of action at a time may be,” said Kerry, referring to reports that Poroshenko might unilaterally try to take back Ukraine.
Kerry’s warning to Poroshenko was abruptly contradicted by his State Department subordinate, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. We “reiterate our deep commitment to a single Ukrainian nation, including Crimea, and all the other regions of Ukraine,” insisted Nuland, stating for the record President Barack Obama’s position on Ukraine. Nuland expressed Obama’s nuanced view of Ukraine that admonishes Russia for violating Ukriane’s sovereignty and territory integrity. When you look at Kerry’s warning to Poroshenko and Nuland’s apparent contradiction, it looks like Barack is saving face with his EU allies. Obama wants to keep the pressure on Putin, while, at the same time, demure on any suggestion that the U.S. would commit arms or military assistance to Ukraine. Obama’s foreign policy has been one of extricating the U.S. from foreign wars and intervention.
Porshenko has stated for the record on TV and radio, both foreign and domestic, that he seeks nothing short of the return of Crimea and Southeastern Ukraine. “Ukraine will ‘do everything’ to retake Crimea,” Poroshenko told Radio Free Europe June 5 that “everyday and every moment, we will do everything to return Crimea to Ukraine,” a far cry from affixing his signature to Minsk II Feb. 12, agreeing to leave Crimea alone and ceding the Donbass region, including Luhansk and Donetsk, to pro-Russian separatists, backed by unmarked Russian troops and heavy weapons. “It is important not to give Russia a chance to break the world’s Ukrainian coalition,” said Poroshenko, referring to lip service paid by the U.S. and EU to Ukraine’s sovereignty. What the U.S. and EU have no stomach for is enforcing the Minsk II protocol or, if breached by Russia, enforcing its provisions.
Poroshenko’s threat to retake Crimea or Southeastern Ukraine runs counter to the Minsk II protocol, agreed to by Ukraine, Russia and the EU and indirectly the U.S. While denying direct military involvement in the Donbass region, Putin could crush any Ukrainian opposition and annex the territory, just like he did in Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia Aug. 12, 2008. Kerry’s warning to Poroshenko to continue abiding by the Minsk II Protocol more accurately reflect the White House policy of non-intervention in Ukraine. While some hawks in the U.S. Congress back intervention, like Senate Armed Service Chairman Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), there’s no stomach for a proxy or direct shooting war with Russia. Whether he likes or not, Poroshenko’s presiding over a shrunken Ukraine, eviscerated by the Russia Federation due to geopolitics and superior military might.
White House officials have a real juggling act trying to maintain strict Russian sanctions, while, at the same time, recognizing the reality of Obama’s non-interventionist foreign policy. White House officials have found out the hard way that the EU doesn’t want to re-litigate another Cold War. While the EU wants a stronger NATO, they’re not willing to do the heavy lifting to confront Russia in Eastern Europe or, for that matter, commit ground troops to fight Syria’s Bashar al-Assad or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Given the foreign policy debate on the 2016 campaign trail, no candidate, other that perhaps Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is willing to commit U.S. combat forces in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS. There’s far less interest in fighting Ukraine’s battles after the Feb. 22, 2014 coup that toppled Kremlin-backed Yanukovich. Agreeing with Poroshenko is a far cry from committing arms and troops
