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U.S. to Confront Putin When Senate Changes Hands
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
December 13, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Threatening new
economic sanctions against Moscow, the U.S. Senate is due to pivot Jan. 1, when
Republicans take charge of Armed Service and Foreign Relations Committees. When 62-year-old Sen. Bob Corker
(R-Tenn) takes over the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Jan. 1, it’s going to
be difficult for President Barack Obama to stave off a more aggressive foreign
policy. Together with Sen. John
McCain (R-Ariz.) taking over the Senate Armed Services Committee, the
anti-Communist crowd will once again direct U.S. foreign policy. Passing the Ukrainian Freedom
Support Act unanimously Dec. 11 to provide military and non-lethal aid to
Ukraine, Corker’s legislation aims at stopping Russian President Vladimir Putin
bullying Ukraine and neighboring countries. Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov announced the Kremlin would not take the
news lightly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
hinted at consequences if the West applied more sanctions or lent direct
military aid to Ukraine.
“Undoubtedly, we will not be able to leave this without and response,” said
Rybakov, hinting that the fragile ceasefire could end at any time. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
was hopeful the ceasefire would hold but knows it has more to do with Putin than
pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk.
Since seizing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula March 1, stationing thousands
of troops on the border and supplying pro-Russian separatists with arms and
unmarked Russian troops in Southeastern Ukraine, Moscow has done little to end
the conflict. Putin continues to
blame the U.S. and European Union for backing the Feb. 22 coup that toppled
Russian-backed Ukranian President Viktor Yanukovich.
Conservatives in the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations
Committees have blasted Obama for showing weakness, emboldening Putin to show
more aggression in Eastern Europe.
Several heads-of-state in former Soviet republics, led by Lithuanian President
Dalia Grybauskaitea, asked NATO to beef up military presence to offset Putin’s
aggression. “The hesitant U.S. response to Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine threatens to
escalate this conflict even further,” said Corker, affirming 100% backing for
his bill. “Unanimous support for
our bill demonstrates a firm commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and to making
sure Putin pays for his assault on freedom and security in Europe.” Strong Senate backing for a direct
response to Putin’s aggression promises fireworks in the New Year. Bogged down in the Middle East,
Obama has done little to contain Putin.
Putin’s tight grip on Russia’s media prevents the Russian public from
seeing the catastrophic consequences of invading Crimea. Kicked out the G8 and alienating
foreign investment in Russia, the ruble and Russian stock market now teeter on
recessions. While U.S. and EU sanctions have taken their toll, the collapse of worldwide petroleum
prices hurts Russian coffers. European leaders like German Chancellor Angel Merkel have tried to reason with Putin
about annexing Crimea and stoking conflict in Southeastern Ukraine. Meeting briefly at Moscow’s Vnukovo
airport Dec. 8, French President Francois Hollande encouraged Putin to back a
ceasefire in Southeastern Ukraine.
Hollande sought clarification of Putin’s Dec. 4 State of the Nation speech to
the Kremlin where he blamed the U.S. for putting Russia behind a new “Iron
Curtain,” trying to turn Russian into the next Yugoslavia.
Kiev’s lawmakers reacted positively, calling Corker’s bill “an historic
decision,” hoping U.S. military aid would force Putin to back down. When Secretary of State John Kerry
meets Lavrov in Rome, Sunday, Dec. 14, it won’t take much to deviate from
talking about the Middle East.
Lavrov has already put the U.S. on notice that he sees no justification for
sanctions against Russia, warning Washington to stay out of Ukraine. Meeting in Rome, Kerry will try to
placate Lavrov but knows starting Jan. 1 there’s a new sheriff in town named
McCain. McCain agrees with 2012 GOP
candidate Mitt Romney that Russian remains the biggest threat to U.S. national
security, not Islamic terrorism.
Judging by events in Ukraine, he’s turned our right. Obama’s reticence to intervene in
Ukraine is about to change when the GOP takes over key Senate committees Jan. 1.
Heading on a collision course with the U.S., Putin has less wiggle room to
navigate a soft landing on Ukraine.
With worldwide oil prices crashing below $60 a barrel and the Russian economy
sliding into recession, Putin no longer has the luxury to continue hanging onto
Crimea and destabilizing Ukraine.
Whether or not the fragile ceasefire holds in Ukraine is anyone’s guess. New Years will bring direct military
and economic aid under Corker’s Ukraine’s Freedom Support Act, running afoul
with the Kremlin. Either Putin
annexes Southeastern Ukraine or will be forced to stop backing pro-Russian
separatists and withdraw Russian troops.
When Kerry meets Lavrov in Rome tomorrow, he’s going to have a
heart-to-heart about expected changes in U.S. foreign policy. While Lavrov only parrots back his
bosses ideas, he’ll have a lot to report back to the Kremlin.
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