North Korea Calls U.S. and South Korea's Bluff

by John M. Curtis
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Copyright November 23, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

             Shelling South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island with heavy artillery, North Korea’s reclusive dictator Kim Jong Il thumbed his nose at U.S., daring the South to respond in-kind.  Killing two marines and injuring 15, Kim sent a loud message to President Barack Obama that he’s calling the shots, especially after revealing to the global media this week his 1,000 new centrifuges busy spinning yellocake into uranium hexaflouride gas, a precursor to weapons grade material.  Bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, Obama called for “restraint,” the same message delivered to South Korea March 26, when a North Korean torpedo sunk a 1,200 ton South Korean patrol boat killing 46 sailors.  Since signing the armistice July 27, 1953, the Korean War has never officially ended, despite the fragile agreement setting the 38th parallel as the buffer between the communist North and Democratic South.

            North Korea finds itself in the middle of a political secession where Kim’s 26-year-old youngest son, Kim Jong Un, proves his military chops attacking the South for the good of the Communist Central Committee.  South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said the North Korean action was “an indiscriminate attack on civilians can never be tolerated.”  Neither Obama nor Myund-bak have any answer for the North other than begging for restraint.  While “outraged,” Obama called on both sides to avoid further escalation that could lead to war should North Korea unload its arsenal.  China refused to condemn its communist ally, calling on both sides “to do more to contribute to peace and stability on the peninsula,” essentially blaming the South for provocative military exercises.   U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the action calling on both sides to show “immediate restraint.”

            With the Afghan and Iraq wars usurping U.S. resources, the North Koreans and Iranians know that the once dominant superpower finds itself spread too thin.  Without any forceful response, Kim knows that the U.S. and South Korea are essentially Finlandized, the adjective once describing Finland’s utter submission to the ex-Soviet Union.  “Enormous retaliation should be made to the extent that [North Korea] cannot make provocations again,” said Myund-bak, warning Kim of massive retaliation for future episodes.  Only one small problem:  Kim knows that was the same threat made March 26 when North Korea downed South Korea’s Cheonan warship killing 46 sailors.  Kim knows now that neither the U.S. nor South Korea wishes to rock the boat on the Korean peninsula.  Both countries feel too depleted and insecure to take on a growing regional menace.

            Obama announced Nov. 23 that the U.S. would defend South Korea from a North Korean invasion.  Yet because of the Afghan and Iraq wars, the U.S. finds all branches of the voluntary military stretched to the breaking point.  South Korea is one of the world’s growing industrial giants, perfectly capable of defending itself against the impoverished North.  Given Kim’s penchant for detonating A-bombs and recent uranium enrichment activities, the world can’t sit idly by while North Korea attacks the South.  Pyongyang has a long history of belligerence, including downing a South Korean airliner in the late ‘80s.  U.S. and South Korean officials want to see the U.N. condemn North Korea in the Security Council, yet know that China, a major North Korean ally, would likely veto any such move.  North Korea claims the South initiated the latest skirmish by staging war games near the maritime border.

            Attacking the South with heavy artillery would be an act of war in virtually any other country.  Because Kim often provokes the South and expects the U.N. to broker ceasefires, including the one signed in 1953.  Attacking the South gives Kim added leverage in exacting concessions from South Korea, the U.S. and it’s many Western allies.  Shelling the South “brings us one step closer to the brink of war,” said Peter Beck a research fellow at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.  With so many unanswered provocations, Kim has learned over the years that he can push the South to the brink of war only to see strategic retreat.  Given the South’s economic prosperity, it’s reluctant to antagonize the North without serious consequences, namely, damage to the South’s economy.  South Korea can no longer hide behind economic prosperity to defend its economy.

            U.S. officials find themselves caught between a rock-and-a-hard-place with the country spread too thing to intervene militarily.  Obama must accelerate the end of the Afghan and Iraq wars to shore up more resources to deal with real international crises.  Kim’s actions constitute the most egregious form of international bullying.  While Barack must pick his battles wisely, he can’t continue to placate Kim’s fetish for Beluga caviar and French Champaign.  Kim’s brazen attack on Yeonpyeong Island, only seven miles from the North Korean mainland, calls the U.S.’s bluff.  Without swift and effective retribution, Kim will continue to bully the South, timidly protecting its powerful commercial interests.  South Korea must do more than call Kim’s actions “inhumane atrocities.”  Promising to defend South Korea, Barack must formulate the right plan to contain a growing North Korean threat.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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