Republicans Hype Expected Victory

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright October 10, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

            Expecting to takeover Congress in November, Republicans have counted their chickens too soon, anointing House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) as the next speaker.  While Boehner knows that 40 seats are needed to send House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) packing , GOP efforts to paint President Barack Obama as a failed leader haven’t gained much traction.  Barack’s 45.4% approval rating is a far cry from the 70% he enjoyed after his Jan. 20, 2009 inauguration but far higher than his predecessor George W. Bush, who left office with 28%.  Recent polls, while exaggerated in right wing circles, show that any improvement in the U.S. economy could bump the president by about 10%.  “Democrats have momentum,” read a recent three-page memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, trying to get out the base before the Nov. 2 election.

            Republicans have created an air of invincibility for the midterm elections, setting up big expectations to take over both houses of Congress.  Few experts believe that, given current trends, the GOP can retake the Senate and the House.  Forty-votes are needed to retake the House, a tall order when you consider that the dominos would all have to fall in the GOP favor.  If the GOP gets too cocky with their message, some of the base may stay home, believing the election’s in the bag.  A new Washington Post/ABC poll indicated that Democrats have cut expected losses in half, motivating the Democratic based to get out the vote.  If Republicans get too confident, it could discourage voters from  going to the polls.  So far, the Republican message has been drowned out by conservative voters, running fiercely anti-incumbent campaigns and promising to scale back government.

            Tea Party’s message of “government is too big and it spends too much” resonates with disgruntled whites believing the alien invasion has taken away American jobs.  High unemployment and poor jobs growth has hurt Barack’s approval ratings, raising doubts about his economic policies.  When the stock market began to rise in September, it gave some fearful voters reason to hope that Brack’s economic polices may be working.  With the Dow Jones Industrial average now at over 11,000, the public’s expectations for economic recovery could be improving.  Steady improvements in major stock averages could give publicly traded companies the added incentive to begin adding to payroll.  Reducing the unemployment rate would give consumers more cash to fuel spedning and improve Gross Domestic Product, currently teetering on a double-dip recession of only 1.6 percent.

            Republicans have ranted about government bailouts sine Obama signed his $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law Feb. 17. 2009.  While the Tea Party rants about Barack’s bailouts, they rarely complain about former President George W. Bush’s $687 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program [TAPRP] passed Oct. 3, 2008, the Emergency Stabilization Act, designed to re-supply banks and financial institutions with emergency cash.  Billions of dollars went from the government to financially insolvent banks.  Tea Party folks rail against Obama’s bailout programs but routinely forget that Bush’s conservative Treasury Secretary—a former CEO of Goldman Sachs—insisted the bailouts were needed to prevent another Great Depression.  Conservatives don’t seem to have problems with big government subsidies to publicly traded companies, just not social welfare programs

            Democrats face stiff headwinds in the midterm elections, primarily because the economy continues to sputter.  If the stock market gets some traction and doesn’t sell off before the election, it could take some wind out of the GOP sails.  “They popped the champagne on the guaranteed Republican victory six months ago, said Jennifer Crider a top aide at the Democratic Congressional Committee.  “Now they’re trying to shove the cork back the bottle,” reflecting on too much GOP hype about retaking the House Nov. 2.  “With less than a month to go, it’s clear that Democrats will at the very least lose functional control of the House,” wrote Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) head, of the GOP committee overseeing House races.  Sessions refuses to anoint Boehner when anything can happen between now and the election.  More rallies in the stock market could reverse GOP fortunes.

            While everyone suffers from a bad economy, what helped Obama in 2008 now hurts the incumbent party in 2010.  Voters aren’t impressed with logic, they keep asking what have you done for me lately.  With the nation still shedding jobs, voters are getting more discouraged with Obama’s policies.  If the stock market continues to rise and the economy shows signs of life, it could help Democrats heading into the midterm elections.  Democrats can’t control the message unless they can show positive signs in the economy.  “By definition, success is winning the House winning back the Senate and winning every major governors’ race,” said form Obama campaign chairman David Plouffe, overstating the GOP challenge.  If Democrats hold on to both chambers, it will be a blow to the GOP.  They can’t set up such high expectations about Democratic failure without paying a price if they don’t deliver.

About the Author  

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.