California Governor's Race Update

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 3, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

            Hammering former Gov. and current Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman continues to spend a fortune on negative advertising, chipping away at Brown’s image.  While Megs spends untold millions on attack ads, Brown keeps his powder dry until after Labor Day.  Before then, Brown is content to let the soon-to-be 54-year-old former CEO run negative ads, portraying the 72-year-old ex-governor as an incompetent career politician.  Whitman, in contrast, portrays herself as a government outsider, capable of fixing a broken state budget, now threatening the health, safety and welfare of California.  She boasts about her plan to fix the California economy.    Meg wants to balance the state budget by slashing the size of state government, throwing thousands of state workers into unemployment.  Meg’s plan is the same as Arnold’s on heavy steroids.

            Schwarzenegger recenttly tried to balance the state budget by slashing the wages of 200,000 state employees to minimum wage.  While he was blocked by State Controller John Chiang, the future threat with Whitman remains real.  Swept into office by a special election Oct. 8, 2003 that tossed former Gov. Gray Davis out of office, Arnold has delivered nothing of what he promised, especially fixing the state’s broken economy.  He ran into one slight problem pushing through his legislative agenda:  He’s a Republican fighting a Democratic legislature.  Whitman now faces exactly the same scenario:  Promising the world but facing the same Democratic legislature.  She mentions nothing while bashing Brown how she plans to get along with California’s Democratic legislature.  Whitman has no problems spending 10% of her $1.4 billion dollar Ebay fortune on winning the governor’s office.

            Bombarded with negative campaign ads, Whitman hopes California voters continue their comatose state that propelled Arnold into office Nov. 4, 2003.  Despite Brown’s many accomplishments as governor [Jan. 5, 1975-Jan. 3, 1983], including balanced budgets, Whitman blasts his track record.  Brown was elected to the California Community College Board of Trustees, secretary of state, governor, mayor of Oakland, and, most recently, attorney general.  Meg has held no elective office, nor has she even voted in the state elections until announcing Sept. 22, 2009 her plans to run for governor.  “It took a person who’s been around for 30 to 40 years, who’s sufficiently confident of his own opinion, not to be herded into doing what every was saying he should do,” said Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain, applauding Brown for not yet spending his paltry $23 million war chest.   

            Brown is not expected to start putting out ads until after Labor Day.  Whitman has nothing to lose, spending lavishly until voters go to the polls Nov. 2.  “A less experienced candidate would have listened to consultants who would have been preaching the conventional wisdom that he needs to get out and defend himself.  So far, it looks like he’s right,” said Cain, reading the polls that show Brow ahead.  Given all Whitman’s spending, she should make up more ground.  With Arnold leaving the state a mess, Brown’s advisors see Whitman as tied to his legacy.  California’s electorate has been trending Democratic since Gov. Pete Wilson left office Jan. 4, 1999.  When you consider all the state’s social and economic woes, Whitman faces stiff headwinds heading into November.  While there’s discontent with the ruling party, California’s Republican Party has a tough sell.

            Whether you’re Democrat, Republican or independent, most voters know Brown’s long distinguished track record in California public service.  California state employees aren’t happy with Schwarzenggers’s attempt to balance the budget on the backs of state workers and public education.  Whitman’s plan promises to slash state budgets and funds for education, driving state workers and teachers toward Brown.  Jerry’s still a major political figure,” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.  “And there’s a lot of people who thin they know about Jerry and have a strong sense of who he is.  It’s hard to move voters off of him,” signaling Whitman’s biggest problem:  She has no experience running state government.  California can’t take another Arnold-type experiment in 2010.  Whitman can slash-and-bash but can she solicit voters’ trust at a time of statewide distress?

            Brown’s decision to move aggressively on the campaign after Labor Day shows sound political instincts.  He knows he can’t compete with Meg’s bottomless piggy bank but can wait and pick the right time to pounce.  Meg’s consultants have warned her against televised debates against one of the best political debaters in recent memory.  Brown knows the issues inside out and won’t hesitate to point out Meg’s inconsistencies, especially her lack of experience.  Her economic plan promises to cast thousands into the help wanted lines and drive the unemployment rate above 13%.  She has no plan how she intends to push her austerity plan through the Democratic legislature.  Schwarzenegger antagonized both Democrats and Republicans.  Whitman promises to take inter-party warfare to new heights.  Voters may be frustrated with the glacial pace of economic recovery but they’re not ready for another failed experiment.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.