Iran and Israel's Collision Course

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 22, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

             Since Israel’s botched May 31 inspection of a Turkish-based relief ship bound for the Gaza Strip resulting in the deaths of 10 activists, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seized the chance to confront Israel.  With Israel threatening missile strikes against Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, Iran upped the ante, promising to break Israel’s naval blockade.  While the exact dates are unknown, Israel has already begun preparations for a high-stakes game of chicken in which the Mideast is becoming dangerously close to regional war.  “No one in their right mind can believe that a ship sent by the ayatollahs and their Revolutionary Guards has anything to do with humanitarian aid,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Spokesman Yigal Palmor.  Israel must remember that it’s ongoing threats against Iran’s nuclear program ratcheted up the tensions to the breaking point.

            When the U.N. Security announced June 9 its fourth, and most severe, round of sanctions against Tehran,  Ahmandinejad reacted defiantly that the “bullying” powers would not stop Iran for completing the nuclear fuel cycle.  While the West believes Iran is feverishly pursuing nuclear bombs, Ahmadienjad and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believe its well within its rights under the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing atomic powers to complete the nuclear fuel cycle, enriching uranium for “peaceful” purposes.  Iran has the same concept of “peaceful purposes” as Pakistan who held its archrival India at bay getting the bomb.  “I don’t think there is one single country in this region an beyond that would let such an ayatollah ship come near its coast,” said Palmor, signaling that Israel would militarily intercept any incoming Iranian naval vessel, no matter the risk.

            Playing a dangerous game of chicken with Mideast, both Israel and Iran must come to their senses before its too late.  Mutual threats by both countries do nothing to advance the peace process and send the world closer to the brink.  Regardless of Israel’s blockade, any attack on an Iranian ship would surely trigger retaliation of some kind.  Given the political unrest in Iran, stemming in part from a June 13, 2009 fraudulent election, the mullahs seek any opportunity to divert attention away from domestic unrest.  Since the disputed election, Iran has engaged in the most brutal crackdown on pro-Democracy demonstrators since China’s April 14, 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, where Chinese tanks rolled over demonstrators.  Ahamadinejad itches to divert public attention to a war with Israel.  Because of Arab hatred toward Israel, any attack would score political points.

            Following the May 31 incident, Israel has been backpedaling on its blockade, prompting Egypt to ease its embargo June 9.  Despite its ongoing war with Gaza’s Hamas government, Israel finds itself isolated in continuing its blockade on the tiny seaside territory.  Egypt had only recently flooded Gaza warren of tunnels with water and poison gas.  Egyptian Transportation Official Mohammed Abdelwahab signaled his country was prepared to end its land and sea blockade.  Egypt announced it would not block an Iranian-bound vessel from passing through the Suez Canal from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean en route to Gaza.  “As long as the ship is not at war with Egypt and doesn’t pollute the air, water or land, then it will be allowed to cross,” said Abdelwahab.  Egypt’s decision poses a real problem for Israel seeking to avoid a repeat of its May 31 botched inspection and PR disaster.

            Egypt’s decision to reopen the Rafah border crossing puts more pressure on hard-line Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to open up the Israeli border gate.  When Hamas seized Gaza June 14, 2007, Israel knew that a mortal enemy was within striking distance.  During the long painful Intifada years around former President Bill Clinton’s last-ditch attempt at peacemaking, Hamas killed scores of Israeli citizens with suicide blasts.  Some of this will be resolved satisfactorily, and some of this will be a struggle,” said Mideast U.N. Envoy Tony Blair.  Blair has the unenviable task for preventing WWW IV, keeping Israel and Iran from what looks like an imminent collision course.  Ahmadinejad would like nothing more than to pick a fight with Israel.  Win, lose or draw, Iran comes out ahead because it becomes the Arab world’s tough little rooster that stood up to Israel.

            Mideast U.N. Envoy Tony Blair must fish or cut bait, restraining both Israel and Iran from engaging in dangerous brinksmanship—the kind of confrontation that could spark a regional war.  Sending an Iranian relief boat directly provokes Israel into a possible military confrontation.  Today’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan handcuff the U.S. into taking bolder action  to deal directly with Iran’s feverish pursuit of nuclear bombs.  Personnel problems with Gen. Stantley McChrystal resigning today casts more doubt on Barack’s Afghan mission and exit strategy next year.  To avert a possible war, Blair must reach out to Gaza’s Hamas strongman Ismail Haniyeh before allowing Iran to ignite a new regional war.  “Some of this well be resolved satisfactorily, and some of this will be a struggle,” said Blair, signaling that averting a crisis with Iran and Israel may be as difficult as parting the Red Sea 

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.