Kerry to Qatar for Syrian War Talks

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 21, 2013
All Rights Reserved.                                      

      Speeding off to Doha, Qatar, Secretary of State John Kerry plans to deliver President Barack Obama’s plan to arm Syrian rebels known a “Friends of Syria” to battle the Shiite Alawite regime of President Bashar al-Assad.  Defying the wishes of Russia and China, the White House capitulated to conservatives in Congress, notably Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who’s called for U.S. military intervention since March 6, 2012.  McCain has asked Obama to stop the Syrian army’s assault on various rebel groups seeking to oust al-Assad since March 11, 2011 during the height of the “Arab Spring.”  When Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov May 24, they announced plans for a Syrian peace conference, designed to bring all parties to the bargaining table.  Since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Obama to stay out of Syria where he and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah battle to save al-Assad’s Baathist regime.

           Kerry’a mission involves meeting with “Friends of Syria” to discuss the roll-out of how various assault rifles, anti-tank and anti-air craft weapons can get into hands of so-called  “vetted” Syrian rebels, despite knowing the “Friends of Syria” have partnered with al-Qaeda, Hamas and host of Saudi-funded Wahhabi groups determined to topple al-Asssd’s Shiite government.  “There is a unanimity about the importance of trying to find a way to peace and not a way to war: The Assad regime is making that very difficult ,” said Kerry, threatening Syria with U.S. military action .  Kerry and the White House know that al-Assad has no intention of surrendering.  When Lebanon-based Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah announced April 24 that he would fight for Syria, it changed the military dynamic, giving al-Assad an advantage over rebel forces.  When Syrian forces evicted rebels from the border town of Qusair, the U.S. was pressed into action.

          Russia and China have warned the U.S. not to step into a sectarian war where al-Assad’s Shiite minority battles a Saudi-funded Wahhabi revolt.  Claiming to respond to the rising death toll now at around 93,000, the White ignored Russia and China’s warnings, making U.S. clout on the U.N. Security Council next to nothing.   Kerry knows that starting a new Mideast war may have costly repercussions to U.S. foreign policy and the economy.  Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in more than 7,000 U.S. deaths an over $2 trillion in lost tax revenue.  Putting U.S. prestige on the line in Syria assures a long-term U.S. involvement, directly pitting the U.S. military against  Hezbollah guerrillas for the first time.  Arming Syrian rebels carries the double risk of arming U.S. enemies like al-Qaeda, and, at the same time, starting a proxy war against Iran by fighting directly against Hezbollah.   Battling Hezbollah starts a war with Iran but doesn’t guarantee a positive outcome in Syria.

           Defying Russia and China, the U.S. hopes to pressure al-Assad to go the peace table.  Whether admitted to or not by the White House, al-Assad won’t surrender to Saudi-backed Sunni guerrillas plotting a genocide of the Syria’s Shiite population.  White House officials chose to put the defense industry over the wellbeing of the U.S. military.  No U.S. soldier should be put into harm’s way to serve the bottom line of publicly or privately held defense companies. Given the human toll and financial costs associated with the Iraq and Afghan wars, you’d think the Obama administration had learned its lessors from former President George W. Bush, who swallowed a bitter pill in Iraq and Afghanistan:  Don’t enter a foreign war unless there’s a high likelihood of success.  Whatever risks to U.S. credibility existed in the Iraq or Afghan wars, it pales in comparison to stepping into Syria[s sectarian wars, pitting Sunnis against their Shiite brothers.

            Since taking office Jan. 20, 2009, Obama’s antiwar policies have been eclipsed by the defense establishment, itching to redeploy U.S. troops to another battlefield.  Meeting in Doha to determine how to pressure al-Assad to negotiate leaving Syria into the hand Saudi-backed terror groups is unrealistic and improbable.  “We will try to establish the situation on the ground,” said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.  “And see how we can help the opposition coalition and bring about a political outcome.  One must not forget that every day dozens and dozens of people are killed in Syria,” showing bias against the Syrian regime.  Because insurgents take up arms against a U.N.-recognized sovereign nation doesn’t mean the sovereign government doesn’t have a right to defend itself.   If something along the lines of the Arab Spring hit France, the United States or Russia, does Fabius really believe the these government would roll over to terrorists’ demands?

          Hosting a Syrian peace conference doesn’t change the basic facts on the ground:  That a Saudi-funded insurgency, led by so-called “Friends of Syria” and supported by al-Qaeda, Hamas and now the U.S., would drive al-Assad from Damascus.  If Russia or China get their say, they’ll give Western powers and earful why the region is better off with al-Assad in power.  Pretending that Syria would turn out differently than Egypt, Tunisia or Libya, is unrealistic.  If anything, Syria more closely parallels age-old ethnic hatreds that pits Muslims against Muslims.  While the Russians supply al-Assad needed weapons and Hezbollah defends al-Assad on the battlefield, It’s unlikely that France will pony up cash or soldiers to battle al-Assad.  If France really thinks Iran plans to sell Hezbollah down the river, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn they might consider buying.  Whatever the misgivings of al-Assad’s regime, it pales in comparison to the anarchy and chaos likely to follow.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.