California's Marijuana Update

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 27, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

             When Tax Cannabis California Legalization Initiative qualified for the November ballot March 25, a Public Policy Institute of California poll indicated 56% support.  Reporting on a new PPIC poll May 27, support had eroded to around 50%, making passing an uphill battle.  Without facing too much opposition, growing number of registered Republicans oppose the legalization effort by 66%.  While Democrats still hold a nearly 10% registration edge, more conservatives are expected to turn out for the midterm elections.  Without a charismatic candidate on the ballot, Democrats are expected to sit this one out next November, boding poorly for the Tax Cannabis initiative.  California’s Tax Cannabis initiative regulates the sale, distribution and taxation of marijuana much the same as cigarettes and alcohol.  Opposed by the liquor lobby and church groups, the opposition has yet to mount its campaign.

            Pro-reform organizations like National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws [NORML] hoped the initial 56% support would hold up.  They fear further erosion toward Election Day, stemming from general opposition to ballot initiatives, but, more importantly, the lower than expected turnout of liberal voters.  Democrats still support the Tax Cannabis Act by 56% as opposed to only 34% of Republicans.  Growing numbers of Latino voters, the state’s biggest voting block, oppose the legislation by 62%.  NORML’s supporters hope that Whites turn out in bigger numbers, since they support the initiative by 56%.  Voters 55 and older support the measure by only 42%, refllecting, changing attitudes among Baby Boomers, whose support was offset by seniors over 70 whose support drops below 40%.  Men support the measure at 54% where women favor legalization at 42%.

            Looking to November, since seniors vote in significantly greater numbers than youth voters, proponents face stiff headwinds getting the initiative passed. Tax Cannabis supporters hoped the state’s economic woes would drive voters to vote for legalization hoping to raise billions in tax revenue.  With a 2010 budget deficit estimated at $20 billion, supporters hoped an expected multibillion-dollar tax windfall would drive conservative voters’ support.  Legalization was also supposed to save the state money by keeping marijuana offenders out the state prison system.  Opponents still characterize marijuana as a dangerous “gateway” drug, driving users to more dangerous drugs.  Despite the lack of scientific proof, opponents continue to make the same old arguments.  Seniors associate marijuana with adolescent revolt, criminality and a dangerous counterculture.

            California’s NORML director Dale Gieringer expects a bruising fight to win legalization.  “This is further evidence that voters remain eager to replace a failed policy with a more honest, commonsense solution that will control and tax marijuana like alcohol and cigarettes, generate critically needed revenue, and reduce crime by putting police resources where they belong, while ending the black market,” said Tax Cannabis campaign spokesman Dan Newman.  Newman has all the right talking points but he’s preaching to the choir.  He hasn’t addressed organized opposition from Northern California’s medical marijuana growers, who fear a loss of business should big agriculture businesses jump on the marijuana bandwagon.  They want to preserve the business for boutique cannabis farmers, supplying a quality product for California’s medical marijuana dispensaries.

            California’s leading Democratic candidates, like Sen. Barabara Boxer and Gubernatorial candidate Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, haven’t signed on to the Tax Cannabis initiative.  They fear a backlash from crossovers who like their politics but oppose marijuana legalization.  “Democrats should like this at the ballot because it encourages turnout by young Democratic and liberal voters, so there is a lot of support in Democratic quarters for that reason,” said Geiringer, puzzled by the Democratic Party’s refusal to endorse the Tax Cannabis initiative.  Groups like Mothers Against Drunk Driving and Public Safety First oppose legalization, fearing more traffic and work-related accidents.  Fourteen years of experience from medical marijuana has shown no increase in traffic accidents or work-related injuries.  Democratic opposition stems largely form a fear of losing independent and crossover voters.

           California’s Tax Cannabis faces an uphill battle during midyear elections that attract older conservative voters.  Proponents have not shown how much the state will actually gain from legalization.  Estimates of the expected tax windfall remain murky.  If 14 years of experience with Prop 215 is any guide, there hasn’t been a substantial increase in marijuana smoking.  Contrary to the liquor and public safety groups, there’s no guarantee that passing the Tax Cannabis Act will result in a significant increase in marijuana use.  Without a dramatic increase in marijuana use, it’s doubtful the state will get the expected tax revenues.  Medical marijuana growers and their clients see no direct benefit from legalization.  They only see big agriculture reaping the rewards at the expense of boutique growers.  Baring some major event before November, Tax Cannabis will wind up in the dustbin.    

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.