North Korea Threatens "All-Out War"

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 25, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

              Tensions escalated on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea’s deadly torpedo attack March 26 in the Yellow Sea on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.  Conclusive evidence from an international forensic team identified fragments from a North Korean torpedo, prompting South Korean’s 68-year-old President  Lee Myung-Bak to promise retaliatory measures.  North Korea, which has denied the charges, promptly broke off diplomatic relations, threatening to evict South Korean officials from Kaesong’s joint industrial park, located just six miles north of the demilitarized zone.  South Korea believes the attack was approved by North Korea’s ailing, eccentric 68-year old Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il.  Promising “all-out war” should the South retaliate militarily, South Korean’s have been reluctant to mess with the North since signing a truce July 27, 1953.

            With 28,500 U.S. troops along the border, South Korea has a lot to lose reengaging the North in armed conflict.  Battled to standoff in 1953, a fragile armistice maintains the peace, allowing South Korea to develop into one of Asia’s most prosperous economies.  With a Gross Domestic Product of $993 billion, just under Mexico, South Korea has a lot to lose in war with the North.  North Korea’s economy ranks among the poorest the world, less than one-tenth as prosperous Seoul.  Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, attending an economic in Bejing, called for calm with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, refusing to take sides in the conflict.  Before the Cheonan incident, North Korea engaged in about $1.6 billion in trade with Seoul and Beijing.  Beijing still represents North Korea’s strongest trading partner, having strong economic ties since before the Korean War.

            South Korea restarted its psychological warfare program blasting loud Western music and sending propaganda leaflets across the border.  Slashing trade and blocking North Korean cargo ships from crossing South Korean waters, Myung-Bak began retaliatory measures designed to punish Kim Jong-Il.  Myung-Bak demands an unequivocal public apology and restitution from the North.  Promising to cut off all channels until Myung-Bak leaves office in 2013, Kim Jong-Il threatened “all-out counterattacks,” ratcheting up tensions along the 38th parallel.  South Korea’s monitoring agency reported that Kim ordered a high alert to his 1.2 million-man land army.  Calling her talks in Beijing “very productive and very detailed,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought calm with Chinese officials, asking both sides to avoid incendiary rhetoric.

            U.S. forces are already spread too thin in Iraq and Afghanistan to open up another front on the Korean Peninsula.  “No one is more concerned about peace and stability in this region as the Chinese,” Clinton told reporters.  While her trip to Beijing with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was focused on currency exchanges and trade, Clinton expressed concern about rising tensions.  Clinton walks a tightrope, supporting Beiijing, while, at the same time, backing ally South Korean.  Hillary knows the history of the Chinese supplying the North Koreans proxy forces and armaments, fighting the U.S.and South Korean forces to a Mexican standoff in the summer of 1953, eventually signing a truce July 27.  Retaliating on its nuclear testing, North Korea officially ended its armistice with South Korean May 27, 2009.  Chinese officials take no sides and urge both parties to show restraint.

            China wants no part of a regional war along its Southwetern border with North Korea.  Trading extensively with the West and North Korea, China sees armed conflict as counterproductive.  Chinese State Counselor Dai Binggup called on “relevant parties” to “calmly and properly handle the issue and avoid escalation of tension,” taking no sides in the conflict.  Clinton has already publicly committed herself to helping South Korea drag North Korea before the U.N. Security Council for more sanctions.  North Korean state media has geared up for potential war with the South, calling on the North’s soldiers and reservists to prepare for war.  North Korea’s March 26 downing of a South Korean ship follows past skirmishes in 1999 and 2002, where they battled the South’s forces.  Seoul-based North Korean Intellectuals indicated that Kim has put his military on high alert for possible war.

            South Korean officials don’t know how far to push the reclusive Kim Jong-Il before there’s no turning back from war.  Kim knows that Hillary fully supports South Korea in taking concrete steps to retaliate against the North.  Western sources indicate that North Korean Gen. O. Kuk Ryol, a close Kim confident, ordered his 1.2 million-man army to ready itself for combat.  With so little to lose and so much to gain, Kim Jong-Il has no trepidation for the more prosperous South.  South Korean’s reluctance for armed conflict stems directly from its prosperous business success.   While no one knows for sure whether Kim will attack, his pattern over the years has been to bluff.  His nuclear program, like his ongoing threats, is designed to keep enemies at bay.  Kim crossed the line killing 46 South Korean sailors.  Now he must deal with more consequences than blasting Led Zeppelin.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.