by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 3, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

en. Barack Obama's (D-Il.) meteoric rise topped-out short of the Promised Land, giving ground to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the waning days of the campaign. While it's not over yet, the momentum is now in Hillary's direction. Barack hasn't won a primary since Mississippi, March 11. Since then, Hillary won big April 22 in Pennsylvania, stealing the energy driving toward May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina. What's becoming more obvious is that both Hillary and Barack will share the Democratic ticket, wounding some egos but satisfying the vast majority of Democratic voters looking for closure. Hillary asked an intriguing question on the eve of Pennsylvania “Why can't Barack put me away?” While the fat lady hasn't started crooning, Democratic voters are beginning to see the wisdom of a joint ticket with Hillary on top.

      When the April 28 AP-Ipsos poll showed Hillary beating McCain by 50%-41% it signaled a dramatic shift in voter-preference. Before April 28, virtually all other match-ups showed Barack besting McCain by bigger margins than Hillary. That shift revealed a momentum swing to Hillary, now driving hard toward the finish line. Barack still can't get beyond his nemesis, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., whose recent appearances at the NCAA Detroit convention, National Press Club and on National Public Radio tilted the race to Hillary. Barack's problems began before the March 4 primary when Wright surfaced like a nuclear submarine. When Barack tried to stem the tide March 18 delivering a brilliant but off-base speech on race he shot himself in the foot. Raising the “race” issue turned his colorblind candidacy into one representing interests of African Americans, turning off white voters.

      Hillary now has the best argument to superdelegates that she runs better against McCain than Barack. Whether or not Barack winds up with more pledged delegates doesn't erase the fact that Hillary won virtually all the big and battleground states. Superdelegates must decide who's more electable. While the state of the country is such that either candidate can beat McCain in November, Hillary has made a more convincing case that she deserves to be No. 1 on the ticket. Watching Hillary and Barack slug it out has been painful to many Democrats, prompting some Party leaders, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), to urge superdelegates to vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Superdelegates must weigh changing circumstances at the end of the race and cast votes appropriately.

      Barack faded in the homestretch because he lost his message of hope in the racial morass that engulfed his campaign. His March 18 speech clearly distinguished him as the African American candidate running for president. He needed to remind voters he was “the Democratic Party's candidate who happened to be African American.” Since that speech, voting results showed an erosion of white middle and working class support. Hillary began to cut into Barack's lead among independents, youth and seniors. However the tally of pledged delegates turns out, it would be irresponsible for superdelegates to not take into consideration Barack's weak performance in the late rounds. Hillary may not catch up on all the scorecards but superdelegate judges must take into account how she finished the race. If the latest AP-Ipsos poll holds, superdelegates must break in Hillary's direction.

      Superdelegates have no obligation to follow who scored more points in primaries and caucuses. In the best of all possible worlds, the two would correlate. While Barack had an impressive run from his first win in Iowa Jan. 3, his campaign got bogged down because of the Rev. Wright controversy. Limbaugh's “Operation Chaos” also didn't help matters, watching the GOP work in concert with the Clinton campaign to sabotage Barack's candidacy. Hillary could only delight herself allowing the “vast right wing conspiracy” help take down her opponent. Barack didn't help matters telling a left-coast fundraiser in San Francisco that small-town voters cling to guns and religion. No matter how he tried to rehabilitate himself, Hillary pounced on his gaffe with avengence. Of all Barack's mistakes, it was his miscalculation on his March 18 speech on race, where white voters got turned off.

      Hillary sees the finish line and has gotten a second wind sprinting in the campaign's final stretch. Barack is still back on his heels, explaining away his relationship to his reverse-racist former pastor, spouting off ignorant views about black sociology and anthropology. If any white preacher aired those views, he'd be hounded out of the ministry and probably the country. Betweem now and June 3 when the primaries come to a merciful end, superdelegates will have to weigh carefully the way both candidates finished the race. Hillary faded early on and finished strong with a flurry. Barack started fast but couldn't keep up the pace, eventually doing himself in with a series of rookie mistakes. All is not lost watching Hillary and Barack eventually join forces to defeat McCain and reclaim the White House. Unless something changes, Hillary's met the test.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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