by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 16, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

              Accusing Ukraine of an economic blockade on the Donbass region in the Southeast, 62-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin ripped Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko for violating the Feb. 12 Minsk agreement.  Putin agreed to withdraw Russian forces for the Southeastern border in exchange for Ukraine pulling back troops from the Donbass region, ceding territory to Alexander Zakharchenko who commands the so-called Peoples Republic of Donetsk.  Since seizing Crimea March 1, 2014, Putin’s strategy has been to carve himself a land corridor that leads from Russia, through Ukraine’s eastern border city of Mariupol to Crimea.  All the pleas from the United Nations and Kiev government to return Crimea back to Ukraine have fallen on deaf ears at the Kremlin.  Putin believes he’s within his rights to return Crimea to Mother Russia, for whatever reason.

             Given to Ukraine as a gift Feb. 19, 1954 by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, Putin felt inclined to take back the region after the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western coup that toppled the Russian-backed government of Viktor Yanukovich.  Putin was irked by the timing of the coup while he hosted the Sochi Winter Olympics.  Blaming the Kiev authorities, led by Poroshenko, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and National Security Chief Oleksandr Turchynev, Putin claims the Kiev government breached the Minsk accord, failing to deliver pension and other economic assistance to the restive Southeastern region.  Putin urged Kiev to follow the Minsk protocol ceding the Donbass region to an independently controlled territory led by Kremlin-friendly Zakharchenko.  Putin’s done little to meet U.N. demands to pull back Russian troops and armaments from Southeastern Ukraine.

             Accusing Kiev of violating the Minsk agreement, Putin makes his case for seizing more sovereign Ukrainian territory.  Faced with growing economic hardships in Russia, Putin can ill-afford to take on the Crimean and Donbass economy.  With Zakharchenko thumbing his nose at Kiev, it’s no wonder that Poroshenko doesn’t feel inclined to meet his welfare and pension obligations in the Donbass region.  Zakharchneko called Kiev’s rulers “those miserable Jews,” showing the kind of lingering anti-Semitism that found sympathizers to Hitler in WWII.  Putin insists that the Feb. 12 Minsk protocol is the only way to end Ukraine crisis, essentially asking Kiev to cede the Donbass region to Zakharchenko.  With Zakharchenko’s pro-Russian separatists and unmarked Russian troops amassing around Mairupol, it’s a matter of time before Putin gives the green light to take the strategic port city.

             Kiev hopes to the U.S., European Union and NATO to rollout a rescue plan for Ukraine.  So far, Poroshenko looks like he’s up a creek, commanding a battered military with divided loyalties, unwilling to make the sacrifices needed to secure what’s left of the country.  Poroshenko’s dreaming thinking that the U.S., EU or NATO are willing to confront Russian-backed forces on Ukrainian soil.  Left with few options, Poroshenko has little choice other than working with Putin and Zakharchenko to preserve what’s left of Ukraine.  Battling Russian-backed forces has left Ukraine divided into Northwestern and Southeastern regions, taking key industrial centers away from Kiev.  Controlling only agrarian North, Kiev has no viable economy to pay sizable debts, especially energy purchases from Moscow.  Neither the U.S. nor EU can take on Ukraine’s failing economy after the Feb. 22 coup.

             When you consider the damage to the Ukrainian economy done by the backers of the Feb. 22, 2014 coup, its sponsors should be prepared to pony up or watch Ukraine deteriorate into more chaos.  Putin overestimates Kiev’s resources, but, more importantly, the political skill needed to put the country back together.  When pro-Western protesters reacted violently in November 2013 to Yanukovich’s decision to let Putin bailout Ukraine’s economy, they weren’t looking at the economic chaos and political anarchy that would follow.  Choosing anarchy over Yanukovich, the Feb. 22, 2014 coup led by Kiev Mayor former heavyweight champion Vitale Klitschko, has proved a disaster.  While it’s hard to un-ring the revolutionary bell, it’s still possible for Poroshenko to makes amends with Putin.  No one in the U.S. or EU is willing to make the economic, political and military sacrifices to save Ukraine.

             Under the present circumstances, Poroshenko can only sit back and watch Ukraine lose more territory.  No one in the West is willing to make the political, economic and military sacrifices to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  Putin views Ukraine as a proxy war with the U.S. and EU, vying for control over the strategic Black Sea region.  Pro-Western Ukrainians, like Turchynov, Yatsenyuk and Klitskhko miscalculated Putin’s resolve to keep Ukraine away from U.S. and EU influence.  Whatever the mistake, it’s time to stop the rising death toll now exceeding 6,000 and reconsider what’s best for Ukraine.  Whoever’s controlling Kiev, Poroshenko should think hard before throwing Ukraine’s lot with the West.  Since he took office June 7, 2014, Poroshenko has watched Ukraine descend into more chaos only for empty promises from the West.

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