by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 9, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

              Ukraine’s failing economy and security deterioration in the wake of the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western coup raises more fantasies about joining the European Union and falling under NATO’s security shield.  When former heavyweight champion and current mayor of Kiev Vitale Klitschko took to the bullhorn before the revolution, he had high hopes for breaking free of Russian rule, controlled by Kremlin puppet President Viktor Yanukovich.  After the coup, Ukraine’s problems went from bad to worse, with pro-Russian separatists in Southeastern Ukraine breaking off the Donbass region from 49-year-old Petro Poroshenko’s new pro-Western government.  In the past year since 62-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea March 1, 2014, Ukraine has lost much of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.  However loud the protests in Kiev or the United Nations, Putin continues eviscerating Ukraine.

              Ukraine’s 51-year-old post-revolutionary President Oleksandr Turchynov, now head of Ukraine’s National Security Council, wants Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.  Calling NATO “the only reliable external guarantee” of what’s left of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, Turchynov fans the same nonsense that prompted Putin to use unindentified Russian troops to break off the Donbass region, including industrialized Donetsk and Luhansk from Kiev.  Without Donbass, Poroshenko’s Ukraine no longer has a viable industrial base, relying only on agriculture and tourism, something not likely to save the economy.  While president before Poroshenko took over June 7, 2014, Turchynov and his 41-year-old Prime Minister Arseniy Yatanenyuk antagonized Putin so much that he decided, like he did in Georgia in 2008, to annex Ukraine’s Southeast region.

             Turchynov blames Moscow’s aggression for its “long-standing factor” in seeking NATO membership.  No only can NATO not save Ukraine in the future, it turned its back on Ukraine while Putin took as much territory as he wanted.  Turchynov knows that any attempt of Poroshenko’s Ukraine to join NATO would be met with Moscow’s cold shoulder.  No EU country wants a confrontation with Russia.  Just like the old Soviet Union “Finlandized” Europe during the Cold War, there’s no stomach in the EU or NATO to confront the Kremlin.  Since President Barack Obama took office Jan. 20, 2009, Putin read correctly America’s new pacifism, unwilling to draw a line in the sand against Russian aggression.  Putin views the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western coup as a threat to the Kremlin’s supremacy in the Black Sea region.  Any move by Turchynov to join NATO would be slapped down by Putin.

             Ukraine’s pro-Western government has some sympathy in the U.S. Congress but certainly not in the White House.  Like the EU, the White House won’t commit any military resources to Ukraine’s beleaguered government.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against the U.S. or NATO sending any military assistance to Ukraine, fearing it would make Putin even more aggressive.  Merkel sees no scenario in which arming Ukraine would do anything other than backfire.  Since neither the U.S. nor NATO has the resolve to defend Ukraine, Turchynov refuses to face reality, that he lacks backing for military support.  Only a small number of conservatives, led by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, are willing to talk about confronting Putin. There’s no backing in the White House or EU for getting into a military row with Moscow.

             Turchynov’s complaints against Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine has some sympathy but little else.  While Turchynov looks to the EU and NATO, the EU and NATO look to avoid spending blood and treasure to liberate Ukraine.  “For the first time in history, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council which possesses the nuclear weapons use this factor to intimidate the international community and use its military potential for the annexation and seizing territory of a European country,” said Turchynov, telling the truth but realizing there’s no stomach in the U.S., EU or NATO for confronting the Kremlin.  Even if Turchynov hypothetically got his way into NATO membership, NATO wouldn’t contribute lethal weapons or military aid to Ukraine.  Turchynov mistakenly believes that NATO has the resources to defend Ukraine from Russia’s military aggression.

             Putin shows no signs of backing down in Ukraine, eventually moving on the port city of Mariupol to build his land corridor to Crimea.  Despite pleas for help, Kiev gets only lip service from the U.S., EU and NATO.  No country in the Western Alliance is willing to confront Moscow over a fragmented country no longer holding any strategic value to the West.  While it’s true the U.S. and EU would have liked to have more leverage in the Black Sea region, Putin made it clear the no one can mess around in Moscow’s backyard.  Turchynov’s overtures to the EU and NATO fall on deaf ears now and in the foreseeable future.  Poroshenko’s only hope for Ukraine is working with Putin to fulfill energy contracts with Russia’s Gazprom natural gas monopoly.  Short of reinstating Yanukovich, Poroshenko can either play ball with Putin or continue to lose more sovereign territory.

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